UFC 314 Odds, Predictions: Expert Picks, Previews for All 13 Fights

Check out the latest UFC 314 odds and betting lines, along with my predictions for all 13 fights in Saturday's pay-per-view at the Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida.

Below, I look at the latest UFC 314 odds and break down and predict each bout on today's PPV fight card.

Here's how to watch UFC 314 today: The preliminary card streams on ESPN+ at 6:00 p.m. ET (3:00 p.m. PT), with four fights simulcast on ESPN at 8 p.m. ET. The main card is on ESPN+ pay-per-view at 10 p.m. ET (PPV cost: $79.99).

UFC 314 Predictions, Odds

After examining all betting options, a typical UFC card can offer substantial actionable value. And after looking at the UFC 314 odds, today's event is no exception.

So, in addition to moneylines and over/unders, I'll break down how I plan to bet on all the fights based on the latest UFC 314 odds, including exact winning methods, winning round props and whether the match will go to a decision or finish inside the distance.

UFC 314 odds are as of Saturday morning and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 314 with our DraftKings promo code.

Fight times are approximate and subject to change. A l times ET.

UFC 314 Projected Odds

Below, you can find my fair odds moneyline projections for each of Saturday's 13 bouts. In the next section, you'll discover forecasts for those fights to finish inside the distance or for each fighter to win by decision, knockout or submission.

Odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings.

UFC 314 Prop Projections

In addition to creating a crowdsourced projection for moneyline plays, I also collect data on each fighter to win by decision, knockout or submission, enabling us to determine fair odds for each fight to go the distance or for each fighter to win inside the distance.

Nora Cornolle vs. Hailey Cowan

Projection: Cornolle (72.2%)

Nora Cornolle is my most significant projected moneyline edge on Saturday's card. My weighted model, which accounts for multiple datapoints, including Fighter ELO Rating, betting market data and public pick percentages, has Cornolle as a -260 favorite (72.2%) implied. I would bet her moneyline up to -233 (70% implied).

Hailey Cowan is a good athlete, but extremely inexperienced at fighting. She earned a UFC contract with a split decision win on the Contender Series in 2022, then lost her UFC debut to Jamey-Lyn Horth in April 2023. She hasn't fought since.

Cornolle has had three UFC bouts in the interim — a decision win over Joselyne Edwards, a KO win over Melissa Mullins and a split decision loss to a much larger Jacqueline Cavalanti last September. A former Silver Medalist at the Muay Thai World Games, Cornolle is the far better striker — using her knees and elbows to damage opponents with all eight points of contact — and her pressure should make Cowan uncomfortable.

Moreover, Cornolle is likely the superior grappler too; Cowan relies on her physicality to power opponents to the mat, but has struggled to complete or consolidate control against more educated grapplers. Additionally, Cowan has shown cardio concerns when she tries but fails to take her opponents down or control them, leaving an opening for Cornolle to rally late, even if she gets taken down early.

Cornolle should be the more aggressive fighter, landing the more damaging shots across this contest – I favor her to win a one-sided decision or secure a TKO stoppage, and would also bet her live after Round 1.

Furthermore, consider including Cornolle inside the distance (projected +222, listed +240) on round-robin tickets.

Bets

• Nora Cornolle (-172, 0.5u) at FanDuel; bet to -233
• Nora Cornolle Live after Round 1

Tresean Gore vs. Marco Tulio

Projection: Tulio (79.8%)

Marco Tulio is a dangerous prospect in the middleweight division, with fast-twitch athleticism and a well-rounded skillset. Tulio also has nearly double the number of professional fights as Tresean Gore – who carries significant power and a slick guillotine choke but offers limited minute-winning upside in any matchup as a low-volume striker with poor cardio.

This fight might look competitive in the early stages, but Tulio has the more coherent game in an extended, technical fight. The UFC has given Tulio a few soft landing spots in the promotion, after making him fight twice to earn his contract on Contender Series, as I rate Ihor Potieria and Gore near the bottom of the UFC's current talent pool.

I'd use Tulio as a parlay piece up to -400 – right around where I projected his moneyline – and would consider his odds to win via KO/TKO (projected -111, listed +115) or inside the distance (projected -175) either as prop wagers or on round-robin tickets.

Bets

• Parlay (+100, 0.5u): Marco Tulio & Nikita Kyrlov; at DraftKings (bet to -110)

Su Mudaerji vs. Mitch Raposo

Projection: Mudaerji (60.6%)

The "Tibetan Eagle" Su Mudaerji has considerable height and reach advantage (3" taller, 8" reach advantage) for this flyweight tilt against Mitch Raposo, in what amounts to a reasonably binary striker vs. grappler matchup.

Mudaerji (+2.8 strike differential per minute at distance) will try to stay on the outside and snipe Raposo, who will look to close the distance and put his opponent flat on the mat (67% takedown defense, 32% control rate for Su Mudaerji). S  has struggled to both defend takedowns and get back to his feet against superior grapplers.

That said, he did show improved defensive grappling in his loss against Charles Johnson, after a near one-year layoff, and even attempted a couple of submissions of his own in that contest. Fighters implementing offensive submissions out of nowhere often indicate improved confidence in their defensive grappling abilities.

Outside of a submission victory, Raposo likely needs extended control time to win this fight; Mudaerji should land the more damaging strikes whenever they are standing.

I projected this fight to reach a decision around 65% of the time (-185 implied) and would bet the distance prop to -160.

I also show slight value on either fighter to win by decision (projected +162 for Mudaerji, +273 for Raposo). Given the damage optics, I would lean toward the former, but will likely pass on that market.

Bets

• Fight Goes to Decision (-136, 0.5) at FanDuel; bet to -160

Sedriques Dumas vs. Michał Oleksiejczuk

Projection: Oleksiejczuk (70.0%)

Michal Oleksiejczuk spent significant time with Team Fighting Nerds prior to Saturday's matchup with Sedriques Dumas – a long middleweight (2" taller, 5" reach advantage) with an awkward skillset.

Olekseicejzuk has largely fought ranked competition – including new cornerman Caio Borralho – and will take a significant step down against Dumas, who doesn't use his reach well and has struggled with unranked fighters.

Dumas's best abilities are his size and offensive grappling/scrambling (55% control rate vs. 23% for Oleksiejczuk), and he might win the fight from top position if he can consolidate takedowns.

Still, Oleksiejczuk has clearly spent time working on his grappling with his new camp, is the far more dangerous and efficient striker (+0.3 to -0.1 differential per minute), who loves to work the body; and he has ample canvas on Dumas' torso to land body combinations.

Michal used to compete at Light Heavyweight and has fought and defeated plenty of taller and longer opponents, including Chidi Njokuani (6'3, 80" reach), Modestas Bukauskas (6'3", 78"), Shamil Gamzatov (6'2", 76"); the size differential doesn't concern me at all. His power, functional at 205, has proven even more impactful at 185; cardio and defensive grappling are the main issues with his game, and Michal attempted to address both weaknesses by switching camps.

I projected Michal Oleksiejczuk as a -233 favorite and would bet his moneyline to -220.

Moreover, I project value on his odds to win by KO/TKO (projected +123, listed +155) or inside the distance (projected +101, listed +110) depending upon the book.

Bets

• Michal Oleksiejczuk (-190, 0.25u) at Caesars; bet to -220
• Michal Oleksiejczuk wins Inside the Distance (+115, 0.25u) at ESPNBet; bet to +110

Darren Elkins vs. Julian Erosa

Projection: Julian Erosa (69.8%)

Julian Erosa is the bigger athlete (3" taller, 3" reach advantage), and five years younger than Darren "The Damage" Elkins, who is coming off consecutive victories at age 40, heading into his 30th UFC bout.

Erosa is a dangerous striker with opportunistic jiu-jitsu skills, and Elkins seems to get badly wobbled, hurt, cut open – or all three – in every one of his fights at this stage of his career.

Still, Elkins is a relentless chain wrestler (averages 5.8 attempts per five minutes at distance; completed 66 of 190, or 35% in his career), and Erosa can both struggle with wrestling defense (denied 17 of 29 attempts, 59%) and get stuck on bottom (49% control rate vs. 71% for Elkins) when he can't snatch a guillotine.

I project value on Elkins prefight (projected +232, bet to +250) but might prefer to wait until live after Round 1; Erosa should hurt Elkins early – and the first round should be his best round – but if Elkins is alive after five minutes, he might take Erosa to wrestling school for the final two rounds.

In the prop market, I lean toward the fight to go to decision (projected -110, listed +110) or Elkins to win by decision (projected +472, listed +500); however, I can assure you that even if this fight goes 15 minutes, there will be multiple near finishes; betting an Over or distance prop would be a miserable sweat; I'm not particularly enthusiastic about betting either.

Bets

• Darren Elkins Live after Round 1

Jim Miller vs. Chase Hooper

Projection: Hooper (82.1%)

After serving time as the UFC's youngest rostered fighter at Featherweight, Chase Hooper is now being allowed to beat up the forty-year-old lightweights, closing as a -1200 favorite against Clay Guida, and moving toward a similar price range against Jim Miller – who will extend his record (to 46) for most career UFC bouts.

Miller is an extremely dangerous fighter in the first round against any opponent – he carries significant power in his left hand. He has a vicious guillotine he can use to entrap Hooper's long neck.

Still, Hooper is 16 years younger than Miller, the far quicker athlete, and he should have substantially better cardio in the second half of the fight, after imposing a pace on Miller early.

Hooper has dramatically improved his cage wrestling, physicality, and ground and pound in recent fights, while exhausting opponents in constant scrambles. He is seemingly comfortable in every position on the mat. He can use his length (5" taller, 3" reach advantage) to gain additional leverage on submission attempts, whether upright or inverted in those scrambles.

While I project slight value on Miller's moneyline, I'd prefer to bet his early or violence props if you like the underdog; to win in Round 1 (+2000), by KO/TKO (projected +1112, listed +1500) or inside the distance (projected +708, listed +900).

However, I also show value on Hooper by KO/TKO (projected +335, listed +650); Miller is difficult to submit; Charles Oliveira (2018) is the last opponent to make him tap; I'd expect Hooper to pound out a tiring Miller with strikes from mount in the back half of the fight.

Bets

• Chase Hooper wins by KO/TKO (+650, 0.1u) at BallyBet
• Chase Hooper Live after Round 1

Yan Xiaonan vs. Virna Jandiroba

Projection: Jandiroba (67.0%)

I projected Virna Jandiroba as a -203 favorite in a relatively binary matchup with Yan Xiaonan, and would bet the grappler on the moneyline at -180 or better.

Jandiroba might be the best cage grappler in the strawweight division – and one of the best pound-for-pound in the UFC; and if she hadn't let MacKenzie Dern up (while holding top position) in the final minute of their fight at UFC 256, she could more readily stake that claim.

Virna has high-level jiu-jitsu skills, but she combines that skillset with proactive, effective wrestling, averaging 4.9 takedowns per five minutes at range, and completing 35% of those attempts (18 of 52). She has a 74% control rate in grappling positions, compared to 25% for Yan, who has decent first-layer takedown defense (63%) but gets stuck on her back for lengthy stretches of fights, and was nearly submitted multiple times by Zhang Weili.

Yan is the far more effective and efficient striker (+2.8 to -0.8 strike differential per minute) and could potentially steal the fight with impactful moments in two of the three rounds, even while mainly getting outgrappled.

While I lean toward Jandiroba to win by submission – since, she should have opportunities to finish the fight on the mat, if she gets to the positions she needs to in order to win the fight in general, I only project very slight value on her submission prop (projected +273, listed +275) as compared to her decision prop (projected +187, listed +210).

Additionally, I'd lean toward the fight to end inside the distance, given the binary nature, but don't project enough value in that market (projected +142, listed +145) to fire a straight wager.

Bets

• Virna Jandiroba (-142, 0.5u) at DraftKings; bet to -180

Dan Ige vs. Sean Woodson

Projection: Woodson (60.7%)

Sean Woodson has a significant size advantage over most featherweights, including Dan Ige (7" taller, 7" reach advantage).

Ige is the more powerful athlete, but Woodson maintains higher striking output and efficiency, landing 7.6 strikes per minute at distance (+2.3 strike differential per minute) compared to 4.2 for Ige (neutral strike differential).

The discrepancy between Ige's power and Woodson's output could create an interesting dynamic with the judges, where Woodson clearly lands more volume. Still, Ige potentially has the more impactful moments and steals a decision with power optics.

Ige can't oblige Woodson's preferred range kickboxing match – he needs to close the distance and get inside the pocket, where he can hurt Woodson, who has previously been wobbled and clipped, and struggled with pressure fighters. Moreover, Ige should look to mix in some offensive takedowns (averages 1.8 attempts per five minutes at distance) to neutralize Woodson's output.

From a betting perspective, I align with the moneyline and total, and only show slight value on Ige to win by decision (projected +347, listed +390) in the prop market, which you can either poke or use as a round-robin piece.

Still, I lean toward the underdog, who is both more durable and carries bigger knockout power, and would consider a small wager on Ige's moneyline (+150 or better).

Bets

• Dan Ige wins by Decision (+410, 0.1u) at FanDuel

Nikita Krylov vs. Dominick Reyes

Projection: Krylov (65.3%)

Nikita Krylov returns after a nearly two-year layoff, amid a three-fight winning streak over ranked competition, with a competitive decision loss against current champion Magomed Ankalaev on his record from 2021; potentially setting up a rematch for a belt with one or two more wins.

Dominick Reyes seemed completely shot following his four-fight losing streak from 2020-2022 (knocked out by a jab against Ryan Spann), but returned with a pair of knockout wins last year, over Anthony Smith and Dustin Jacoby. Still, Reyes didn't take any damage in those fights against relatively harmless strikers at 205 pounds, and his chin may still be compromised.

Nikita Krylov is an exceptionally well-rounded Light Heavyweight with immense power, technical wrestling, and dangerous submission skills. He's the more durable man –  never been knocked out at Light Heavyweight –  and figures to have full wrestling/grappling upside against Reyes in this matchup too.

I projected Krylov as a -188 favorite, and would bet his moneyline up to -175 straight or use it as a parlay piece to -185.

Moreover, I project value on Krylov to win by KO/TKO (projected +226, listed +340) or inside the distance (projected +125, listed +125) against a fighter who has seemed physically diminished, despite his recent wins, following a brutal spinning back elbow knockout loss against Jiri Prochazka.

Bets

• Nikita Krylov wins by KO/TKO (+340, 0.1u) at BetRivers; bet to +250
• Use Nikita Krylov as a Parlay Piece to -185

Bryce Mitchell vs. Jean Silva

Projection: Silva (68.3%)

Bryce Mitchell's moneyline has moved in from an opening number near +265 (27.4% implied) to +170 (37% implied), with underdog bettors expecting him to land and consolidate takedowns against Jean Silva.

Mitchell proactively grapples (8.6 takedown attempts per five minutes at distance) and has powerful top control, but he isn't much of a finishing threat; he needs to keep opponents flat for extended stretches of rounds in order to win minutes in his fights.

Silva is the shorter man (3" shorter, 1" reach discrepancy) but the far more explosive athlete, with fast hands and exceptional power for a fighter his size.

Silva has been outgrappled for small portions of his fights by lesser wrestlers than Mitchell, but he ultimately hasn't spent much of his fight time (8%) grappling; if Mitchell can force Silva to grapple with him, he'll have a chance to pull the upset.

Still, I'd expect Silva to disengage from all grappling exchanges and make Mitchell pay for failed takedown attempts before closing the show with strikes in the second or third round.

Now that the moneyline has moved in, I show value on Silva as a favorite (projected -215) and would bet his moneyline to -200. Since the line is still moving in, I'll wait for fight day to find the best price on the favorite.

Additionally, I project value on Silva to win by KO/TKO (projected +112, listed +125) or inside the distance (projected -120, listed -102).

Bets

• Jean Silva wins Inside the Distance (-102, 0.25u) at ESPNBet; bet to -110

Yair Rodríguez vs. Patrício Pitbull

Projection: Rodriguez (61.4%)

For additional information on Saturday's featured bout, check out the full fight preview from my colleague, Billy Ward.

Former two-division Bellator champion Patricio Pitbull will make his UFC debut on Saturday at age 37, unfortunately, a few years past his prime heading into his 44th MMA bout.

Pitbull is a short featherweight, and Yair Rodriguez will have a significant height and reach advantage (5" taller, 4" reach advantage) – particularly in leg length; as he'll look to deploy his dynamic taekwondo kicking game from distance, and potentially land a head kick against a much shorter opponent.

Pitbull will look to slow Yair's movement with calf kick, and enter the pocket with powerful boxing combinations. He's also a far better grappler and wrestler, and seems certain to mix in some offensive grappling after applying forward pressure.

The more Yair is forced to grapple, the less dynamic – and effective – his offensive striking becomes. His takedown defense (58%) is also tragic, and he stays on his back hunting for triangles, rather than scrambling back to his feet to strike.

I projected Pitbull as a +160 underdog in this fight, and would bet his moneyline small at that price or better.

Additionally, I show slight value on Pitbull to win by decision (projected +371, listed +500), although I'm more inclined to use that prop on round-robin tickets. Patricio is extremely well-rounded – with high Fight IQ – and I wouldn't be surprised to seem him proactively grapple and try to submit Yair, given his obvious grappling advantage if the fight hits the mat.

Bets

• Patricio Pitbull (+170, 0.25u) at Caesars; small to +160

Michael Chandler vs. Paddy Pimblett

Projection: Pimblett (58.8%)

For additional information on Saturday's co-main event, check out the full fight preview from my colleague, Billy Ward.

This fight is a five-round, non-title fight between two of the best self-promoters in the sport, but I have had an overly difficult time figuring out how to bet on this matchup, which indicates that I should pass.

From a projection standpoint, I show value on the fight to reach a decision (projected +287, listed +360), Paddy to win by decision (projected +581, listed +1050) or on Chandler to win by KO/TKO (projected +262, listed +290) – but I'm not particularly enthusiastic about those wagers.

Chandler carries elite power for the lightweight division, but that power does tend to wane after the opening round; I often bet against Chandler live after Round 1 in his fights. Despite poor striking defense (40%), Pimblett has shown exceptional durability and recoverability.

Chandler has similarly poor striking defense (43%) and a far worse chin than Pimblett, knocked down or wobbled in nearly every UFC fight. H's also coming off a recent five-round war with Charles Oliveira, and his chin could be further compromised following that fight of the night in November. I don't rate Pimblett's power at divisional average, but Chandler has one of the worst – if not the worst chins amongst all ranked fighters in the UFC; this is as good of an opportunity as Paddy has had to add a knockout to his UFC highlight reel.

By the numbers, Paddy is the more efficient striker (+1.3 to -0.5 strike differential per minute at distance), has a two-inch reach advantage, and is nearly nine years younger. Still, Paddy hasn't seen championship rounds since his Cage Warrior days (1-2 in five-round decisions from 2016-2018), and he's shown questionable cardio and output in the latter stages of his three-round UFC fights. Like Chandler, he's a fighter I would typically consider betting against live after a strong Round 1.

Moreover, Paddy prefers to outgrapple his opposition, but only owns a 45% grappling control rate in the UFC, compared to 40% for Chandler, and he may struggle to take down a former D-I wrestler. And even if he does land takedowns, Chandler has shown incredible submission defense, particularly in his two fights with Oliveira.

Chandler should be able to land on Paddy early, but I expect Paddy to take those punches and survive more often than not. Otherwise, I expect Paddy to control the tempo from a distance with low kicks and succeed in grappling an aging fighter.

My confusion stems from the late-round cardio dynamic – and which fighter's skillset will prove better in an extended matchup; does Paddy have the advantage, as the younger athlete, or can Chandler, who nearly finished Oliveira in Round 5, get by on experience?

 Bets

• TBD

Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes

Projection: Volkanovski (62.7%)

For additional information on Saturday's main event, check out my full fight preview.

In short, I projected Alexander Volkanovski as a -168 favorite (62.7% implied) in this fight. I would bet his moneyline up to -150 (60% implied) or better prefight, and add more to his moneyline live, anytime after Round 1.

Given the durability concerns for both fighters –and Lopes' potential cardio issues in the championship rounds– I lean toward the fight to end inside the distance; however, I don't project any value on that prop (projected -135, listed -155 to end inside the distance and +130 to go to decision).

I project slight value on Volkanovski to win by decision (projected +201, listed +230) or in the decision only market (projected -455, listed -225). Alternatively, given the cardio dynamic between these fighters, I'd consider betting Volkanovski to win in Round 4 (+1600) or Round 5 (+2000).

Lastly, if you do like the underdog, Lopes inside the distance (+180), by KO/TKO (+370), or in Round 1 (+700) are all better ways to bet him than taking his moneyline odds; if he doesn't finish the fight early, Lopes may look severely outclassed.

Bets

• Alexander Volkanovski (-129, 0.5u) at BallyBet; bet to -160
• Alexnder Volkanovski Live after Round 1

Sean Zerillo's UFC 314 Picks & Predictions

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Moneyline Bets

• Nora Cornolle (-172, 0.5u) at FanDuel; bet to -233
• Michal Oleksiejczuk (-190, 0.25u) at Caesars; bet to -220
• Virna Jandiroba (-142, 0.5u) at DraftKings; bet to -180
• Patricio Pitbull (+170, 0.25u) at Caesars; small to +160
• Alexander Volkanovski (-129, 0.5u) at BallyBet; bet to -160

Prop Bets and Totals

• Mudaerji/Raposo, Fight Goes to Decision (-136, 0.5) at FanDuel; bet to -160
• Michal Oleksiejczuk wins Inside the Distance (+115, 0.25u) at ESPNBet; bet to +110
• Chase Hooper wins by KO/TKO (+650, 0.1u) at BallyBet
• Dan Ige wins by Decision (+410, 0.1u) at FanDuel
• Nikita Krylov wins by KO/TKO (+340, 0.1u) at BetRivers; bet to +250
• Jean Silva wins Inside the Distance (-102, 0.25u) at ESPNBet; bet to -110

Parlays

• Parlay (+100, 0.5u): Marco Tulio & Nikita Kyrlov; at DraftKings (bet to -110)

Live Bets

• Nora Cornolle Live after Round 1
• Darren Elkins Live after Round 1
• Chase Hooper Live after Round 1
• Alexnder Volkanovski Live after Round 1