We've got a big PPV card on our hands with UFC 314 in Miami, a 13-fight card featuring a featherweight title fight between former champion Alexander Volkanovski and fan-favorite Diego Lopes. The Co-Main event gives us the return of Paddy "The Baddy" Pimblett, as he looks to break into the top-ten of the lightweight division against Michael Chandler.
The prelims start at 6:00 p.m. ET on ESPN+, with a 10:00 p.m. Main Card on ESPN+ PPV.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was starting to think about why markets might be wrong rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, a betting line is a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events. These markets are usually efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA — where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA — it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to find the spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll look into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, making the line inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, later overruled fights, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights also considered.
The focus will be on fights that are reasonably likely to see the scorecards or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.M
UFC 314 odds as of Monday and via DraftKings. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC 314 Predictions & Luck Ratings
Alexander Volkanovski (-130) vs. Diego Lopes (+110)
Depending on how you choose to frame this matchup, this line could appear drastically wrong in either direction. Let me explain.
The first viewpoint: Arguably the greatest featherweight of all time is getting a shot to reclaim his belt, against an upstart fighter who is just 5-1 in the UFC after losing on the Contender Series. On merit alone, Diego Lopes doesn't even deserve the title shot, when the man who beat him (Movsar Evloev) is 9-0 in the promotion.
The other viewpoint: A 36 year old former legend coming off two knockout losses is taking on a man six years his junior, riding a five fight win streak, with his only UFC loss coming on a few days notice. No fighter over the age of 35 has ever won a title fight at 155 lbs or below, and Volkanovski was knocked out the last time he tried.
As much as it pains me to say it, my initial lean is to the latter view. It's been nearly two years since Volkanovski looked like anything but a shell of himself, and it's hard to see that turning around given his age.
Still, his poor performances both came under trying circumstances, so I'm not rushing to the counter to get a bet on Lopes. If I had to make a bet now, though, it would be on the underdog.
Verdict: Diego Lopes (slightly) Undervalued
Paddy Pimblett (-155) vs. Michael Chandler (+130)
In some ways, the story around the co-main event is fairly similar to that around the main event. It's a bit of a budget version of that story line, but there's some parallels.
Chandler is the aging "legend" in this case, with a 1-4 record in his last five. His lone UFC win in the last four years came against an entirely washed Tony Ferguson, and his best days are almost certainly in the rear view mirror.
Despite his undefeated UFC record, Pimblett's UFC performances haven't been quite as impressive as Lopes' were, but he's won six straight in the Octagon against increasingly stiff competition. This version of Michael Chandler is an appropriate next step, but certainly not an insurmountable challenge for the Liverpudlian.
Pimblett actually opened as an underdog here, so the line movement has been pretty telling. I'll have a full fight preview of this one later in the week where I explore the best way to bet it, but my early lean is there's still some meat on the bone if you want to jump in on the Pimblett side early.
Verdict: Paddy Pimplett Undervalued
Sumadaerji (-205) vs. Mitch Raposo (+170)
One bet I am making early in the week is on Mitch Raposo.
We've got a pretty small sample size on Raposo, who lost on the Contender Series in 2021, picked up four straight wins on the regional scene, then took a short-notice call up to the UFC for his promotional debut.
That fight was a split decision loss, in which one judge gave the short-notice fighter the first two rounds. He should fare better with a full training camp — and a favorable stylistic matchup.
Sumadaerji is coming in off of three straight losses, across which he was taken down five times. In fact, he's never won a UFC fight in which his opponent landed a takedown. That's good news for Raposo, a former state champion wrestler.
The line is already coming back in on Raposo, so grab the +170 at DraftKings before it's gone.
Verdict: Cortavious Romius Undervalued
Nora Cornolle (-175) vs. Hailey Cowan (+145)
I've managed to bet against Hailey Cowan more times than she's actually made it into the Octagon, since she has had four fight cancelled in her UFC tenure compared to just one that happened.
Cowan won a very questionable split decision on the Contender Series, then dropped a unanimous decision while missing weight in her Octagon debut proper. Now she's getting fed to Cornolle, who is 2-1 in the promotion coming off of a split decision loss in September.
Cornolle is a former world silver medalist in Muay Thai who transitioned to MMA, while Cowan transitioned to MMA after her college gymnastics career. She's an elite athlete, but has a huge skil gap against a fighter like Cornolle.
I would make this line much wider, so I'm happy to get the -170 at Caesars on Monday. I don't expect that price to last long.
Verdict: Nora Cornolle Undervalued
