Read our UFC 314 predictions for the Saturday, April 12, event live from the Kaseya Arena in Miami, Florida. The preliminary card airs on ESPN+ starting at 6:00 p.m. Eastern Time, with the main card starting on ESPN+ PPV at 10:00 ET.
Our MMA experts went through this weekend's 13-fight lineup for their UFC best bets and identified their four favorite picks for the card.
You can find their analysis and picks, as well as Sean Zerillo's moneyline and prop projections, on those matches below.
UFC 314 Moneyline Projections
UFC 314 Prop Projections
UFC 314 Best Bets
Sean Zerillo: Nora Cornolle vs. Hailey Cowan
Senior Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 6:00 p.m. ET
Nora Cornolle is my most significant projected moneyline edge on Saturday's card – my weighted model, which accounts for multiple datapoints including Fighter ELO Rating, betting market data, and public pick percentages, has Cornolle as a -260 favorite (72.2%) implied. I would bet her moneyline up to -233 (70% implied).
Hailey Cowan is a good athlete but extremely inexperienced at fighting; she earned a UFC contract with a split decision win on Contender Series in 2022, then lost her UFC debut to Jamey-Lyn Horth in April 2023; she hasn't fought since.
Cornolle has had three UFC bouts in the interim – a decision win over Joselyne Edwards, a KO win over Melissa Mullins, and a split decision loss to a much larger Jacqueline Cavalanti last September. A former Silver Medalist at the Muay Thai World Games, Cornolle is the far better striker – using her knees and elbows to damage opponents with all eight points of contact – and her pressure should make Cowan uncomfortable.
Moreover, Cornolle is likely the superior grappler too; Cowan relies on her physicality to power opponents to the mat, but has struggled to complete or consolidate control against more educated grapplers. Additionally, Cowan has shown cardio concerns when she tries but fails to take her opponents down or control them, leaving an opening for Cornolle to rally late, even if she gets taken down early.
Cornolle should be the more aggressive fighter, landing the more damaging shots across this contest – I favor her to win a one-sided decision or secure a TKO stoppage, and would also bet her live after Round 1.
The Pick: Nora Cornolle (-172 at FanDuel)
Billy Ward: Sumudaerji vs. Mitch Raposo
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 12:15 a.m. ET
Throughout Sumudaerji's UFC career, an alarming trend has taken shape. When he gets taken down, he loses.
"The Tibetan Eagle" is 3-4 in the UFC, with three submission losses and a decision in which he was grounded twice. He's been able to keep things standing in all of his wins, using his length and striking to win on the feet.
That makes Mitch Raposo a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad matchup for the favorite. Raposo was a state champion wrestler in high school and currently holds a black belt in BJJ. While he's 0-2 between the Contender Series and UFC, he's landed takedowns in both outings against fighters with much better grappling than Sumudaerji.
This is a pick I was on early this week, when the line was an even more generous +170. While that has (predictably) vanished, I'm still seeing plenty of value at +145.
There's certainly a chance Raposo gets clipped early and never gets to grapple, but if this fight goes more than a few minutes, he should be able to dictate where it takes place. I'd take his moneyline down to even money, as I believe he should be a slight favorite.
The Pick: Mitch Raposo +145 (DraftKings)
John Lanfranca: Michal Oleksiejczuk vs. Sedriques Dumas
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:45 p.m. ET
Michal Oleksiejczuk gets a major step down in competition on Saturday when he takes on Sedriques Dumas. Dumas is 3-2 since coming up to the main roster, but this is undoubtedly the toughest opponent he has faced. For Oleksiejczuk, this is the lowest-ranked opponent he has squared off against in quite some time.
At first glance, this may seem like a good stylistic matchup for Dumas, as his wrestling base can cause issues for the striker Oleksiejczuk. However, Dumas’ 1.3 takedowns per 15 minutes, and more importantly, his 35% takedown accuracy, are not enough to scare me off the favorite here.
This is a crucial fight for Oleksiejczuk’s career, and he clearly is taking this opportunity to get back on track seriously, training with the Fighting Nerds in preparation for Dumas. The Fighting Nerds have an abundance of talent in their camp, but they also have been finding a way to get the best out of their fighters seemingly every time they step into the octagon.
In the moments this fight plays out at kickboxing range, while Dumas is the much longer fighter, I expect Oleksiejczuk to have a decided advantage. I do not believe the durability of Dumas will hold up for 15 minutes if he isn’t consistently able to drag this fight to the mat, and it remains to be seen if that is even what he wants to do each round.
Bettors backing the underdog are assuming Dumas is going out there to execute a singularly wrestling-based gameplan, which is quite the projection. Oleksiejczuk will cause much more damage en route to a decisive decision or KO/TKO finish.
The Pick: Michal Oleksiejczuk -190 (Fanatics/ESPNBet)
Bryan Fonseca: Michael Chandler vs. Paddy Pimblett
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 11:45 p.m. ET
I think Paddy Pimblett is one of the most overrated fighters in the UFC.
That said, he should not lose to Michael Chandler. Pimblett has a great match-up here against Chandler, who is 3-4 in the UFC and has won just two of his last six. Chandler tapped Dustin Poirier in November of 2022, two fights ago, and was knocked out by Charles Oliveira before losing a decision in the rematch this past November.
Pimblett is being pushed really hard by the UFC, which absolutely wants him to get this one. Pimblett is divisive, we'll say, but he has eight straight wins, three of the last five, and four of the last seven of which have been by submission.
I think he wins the ground game and taps the much older Chandler, who isn't in tremendous form heading into this contest, or outpoints him in an underwhelming decision performance against a tough opponent and former Bellator Champion competing as if it's his last chance at this level — which could be so.
The Pick: Paddy Pimblett Submission/Points Double Chance +170 (FanDuel)
