UFC Abu Dhabi Odds, Pick & Prediction for Cory Sandhagen vs. Umar Nurmagomedov (Saturday, August 3)

Cory Sandhagen vs. Umar Nurmagomedov Odds

Here's the latest on the Cory Sandhagen vs. Umar Nurmagomedov odds for UFC Abu Dhabi on Saturday, August 3, with our expert pick and prediction.

The UFC will return to Eihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, for an exciting main event and likely title eliminator in the men's 135-pound bantamweight division between No. 2-ranked UFC contender Cory Sandhagen and No. 10-ranked Umar Nurmagomedov.

Sandhagen enters on a three-fight winning streak and will compete in his sixth consecutive main event and five-round fight, with each of the past five reaching the championship rounds. The "Sandman" owns a 10-3 record in the promotion and hopes for another chance to fight for UFC gold after losing a competitive interim title bout to Petr Yan in the Fight of the Night at UFC 267.

Umar, an undefeated cousin of former UFC lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomeodv, enters his first main event or five-round fight. He's 5-0 in the UFC, including three finishes, but will take a significant step up in competition against a dynamic striker and former title challenger as he attempts to leapfrog most of the contenders at bantamweight.

Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC Abu Dhabi main event and utilize those factors to bet on Nurmagomedov and Sandhagen, who should make their cage walks at approximately 4:25 p.m. ET on Saturday afternoon (1:25 p.m. PT) on ABC. The event kicks off with prelims at noon ET on ESPN2.

Tale of the Tape

Sandhagen is the superior striker and the taller, longer fighter (3" taller, 1" reach advantage). He makes the most of his length while fighting behind long, straight punches and kicks to all three levels. And the reach advantage in leg length should be more pronounced – and effective – than the more negligible differential in boxing range.

Across his UFC career, Sandhagen has spent 65% of his time at range and pulled ahead of his opponents by 2.1 significant strikes per minute at distance on average (6.7 landed, 4.6 absorbed). Sandhagen's grappling has improved in recent years. However, I feel he's a better offensive grappler (he controlled Chito Vera for seven minutes and Song Yadong for four minutes) than defensively.

Sandhagen's takedown defense looked improved in his win over T.J. Dillashaw (he was denied 17 of 19 attempts). Still, he did get controlled for eight minutes of the fight – on the ground and up against the fence – which likely swung a split decision against him and denied him a title shot in 2021.

The only time Sandhagen was defeated cleanly in the UFC was at UFC 250 – amid the pandemic – when Aljamain Sterling immediately backpacked Sandhagen and choked him out in the UFC Apex. Sandhagen is tall, and wrestlers have a lot of leg surface area to latch onto to take down Cory (career 58% takedown defense). While Sandhagen (68% career control rate in grappling positions) ultimately controlled positions against Vera and Yadong, he landed only four of 26 takedown attempts across those fights. He allowed Yadong to get on top of him both times that he tried before getting out from the bottom.

Nurmagomedov is the superior wrestler – and grappler – in this matchup. Umar's offensive wrestling isn't at the level of his cousin (the lightweight GOAT Khabib) but he is relentless in pursuit of the takedown (attempts 6.6 per round in his UFC career). And he's shown strong top pressure and positional dominance (controlled 97% of his grappling time) once he has opponents on the mat.

Moreover, Nurmagomedov is a relatively effective and dynamic striker in his own right, and he has the tools to stay competitive on the feet. However, he briefly wobbled in his last matchup against Bekzat Almakhan before winning a dominant decision.

While both fighters have flash knockouts on their records, I don't view either as a particularly powerful striker. Sandhagen's three most recent finishes came via cut stoppage against Yadong, by flying knee against a 39-year-old Frankie Edgar, and by Round 2 wheel kick against Marlon Moraes, who was devoid of a chin or gas tank while taking the first of what turned into a seven-fight knockout skid to conclude his MMA career.

Sandhagen can butcher opponents on the feet or land one dynamic fight-finishing technique, but he profiles as more of an attritional volume finisher than a one-shot KO artist. Still, I consider him the far more durable fighter in this matchup.

Nurmagomedov retains the submission grappling upside, but if it doesn't come early, when both fighters are dry, I don't think he'll find it.

After the Sterling loss, Sandhagen's jiu-jitsu improved, but there's only so much he can do about his leg length and ability to prevent takedowns from a proactive wrestler. I'd expect him to spend much of this fight on his back, getting controlled and playing submission defense against Nurmagomedov.

If Sandhagen can deny takedowns, especially early, his opponent may gas out late. While Umar hasn't shown any cardio concerns in the third round of his fights, you never fully know how a fighter will look in the championship rounds until they get there. If, like Dillashaw, Umar goes 2-for-20 on takedown attempts and has only one good round of control through 15 minutes, Sandhagen could be the fresher fighter down the stretch and could find a late finish or steal a decision.

While this appears to be a binary striker vs. grappler matchup, both fighters are well-rounded enough to compete where the other is strongest.

Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov Pick

This week, Cory Sandhagen is a trendy underdog selection with fans and bettors picking Sandhagen to win the bout between 43-45% of the time, compared to average implied odds closer to 27-28%.

I projected Sandhagen as a +281 underdog (26.2% implied) and would need at least +300 or better to fire on him pre-fight. Wait until closer to fight time to see if the line continues to tip toward the favorite; Sandhagen opened closer to +180 (35.7% implied).

Otherwise, wait for a live bet on Sandhagen – until after Round 2 – to see if he has any success counter-wrestling; the more takedown attempts he can deny, the more it should help his chances of winning minutes or finishing the fight in the championship rounds.

I expect this fight to reach a decision 58.7% of the time (-142 implied) more often than the odds suggest (-120 or 54.5% at FanDuel). Bet that prop to -131 (56.7% implied) at a 2% edge compared to my projected line. Both fighters are in their physical prime and well-rounded, and most of their recent (non-cut-stoppage) finishes have come against opponents on the wrong side of the divisional aging curve.

Depending upon the book, I project value on either fighter by decision (projected +126, listed +130 at BetRivers for Nurmagomedov and projected +593, listed +750 at DraftKings for Sandhagen); still, I'd rather wait for a live number on the underdog.

The Picks: Fight Goes to Decision (-125 at Caesars) | Cory Sandhagen Live after Round 2