UFC Abu Dhabi Odds, Pick & Prediction for Joel Alvarez vs. Elves Brener (Saturday, August 3)

Joel Alvarez vs. Elves Brener Odds

Here's the latest on the Joel Alvarez vs. Elves Brener odds for UFC Abu Dhabi on Saturday, August 3, with our expert pick and prediction.

Exciting lightweights Joel Alvarez and Elves Brener meet in the UFC Abu Dhabi main-card opener today. Both fighters would be close to the rankings in nearly any other division, but they have plenty of climbing to do in a stacked 155-pound weight class.

Alvarez is 5-2 with all of his wins coming via stoppage, though he's fought just once in the past 18 months. Brener's entire UFC career has existed in that timeframe, and he now has a 3-1 record with two Performance of the Night bonuses.

Winning this fight would be a massive step toward lightweight contention. Both men have primarily feasted on lesser competition so far. Oddsmakers have it lined fairly closely, so who's it going to be?

Tale of the Tape

Elves Brener is the next in a long line of Chute Boxe Diego Lima prospects looking to follow in the footsteps of former lightweight champion Charles Oliveira. He typifies the style we've come to know and expect from that camp: extremely aggressive striking on the feet and an excellent submission game, mostly off his back.

Like his teammates, it's a fairly high-risk, high-reward style. We've seen Brener get clipped at times, especially at range on the feet. He's decently sized for lightweight, but extremely tall opponents like Alvarez have the potential to pick him apart at distance.

It's a similar story on the ground, where Brener spends a lot of time hunting submissions off his back. While he's yet to score one in the UFC, 11 of his 14 pre-UFC wins came via submission. That's a great strategy when it works, but it's a good way to lose rounds off your back when it doesn't.

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To his credit, he used the submission threat – in this case an armbar into an omoplata – to force a scramble against Myktybek Orolbai and work his way back to striking range. Not for long, though, as Orolbai was able to ground him in every round of their fight.

While his overall takedown defense is strong, persistent wrestlers can eventually find success, especially by timing some of the aggressive striking from Brener on the way in. At the same time I don't want to discredit him too much for his performance against Orolbai, who seems to have future champion potential based on his early performances.

Perhaps his best skill, though, is his heart and toughness. Brener was cut badly by Guram Kutateladze, a +350 underdog heading into the final round, and Brener found a late knockout. His ability to end the fight standing or on the ground keeps him in every fight.

The resume is similar for Alvarez, who's 5-2 in the UFC with losses to current No. 1 contender Arman Tsarukyan and former highly touted prospect Damir Ismagulov.

One of the tallest and longest fighters in the division, the 6-foot-3 Alvarez uses his length well on the ground with 17 of 20 professional wins via submission.

Interestingly, he's never landed a takedown of his own in the UFC with just an 11% takedown defense rate. Rather than wrestle proactively, he picks apart opponents at range and then looks to secure submissions when they get uncomfortable and shoot to close the distance.

His latest fight, a submission win over Marc Diakiese, showed that game plan at its best. He outlanded Diakese more than 2-to-1 on the feet with a heavy dose of leg kicks and lead hand work.

Alvarez carries his lead hand low, relying on his length to stay out of range of heavy shots. It's worked so far, and he's never been dropped in the UFC. He's also yet to land a knockdown of his own, with a standing TKO and a ground-and-pound win making up his non-submission finishes in the UFC.

Alvarez vs. Brener Pick

So far at least, Alvarez's kryptonite has been wrestlers whom he's unable to submit. That was the case in both of his UFC losses; he typically looks for submissions rather than defending takedowns.

While that's not exactly Brener's game, the Brazilian certainly has the grappling credentials to stay out of submissions on the ground. He's never been submitted (or finished) as a pro, an impressive stat given his early career in Brazil.

I give Alvarez the technical edge on the feet, and he should be able to land at range against Brener.

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However, the Brazilian Brener will likely have the bigger moments with more impressive power and a more aggressive style.

That adds up to a fight where I'd be fairly comfortable taking either fighter at plus money. In this case, that's Brener, whose best odds are +152 at the moment.

The extended layoffs and struggles on the scale for Alvarez also push a bit to the underdog, who I see winning a decision via takedowns and some big strikes.

The Pick: Elves Brener (+152 at FanDuel)

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