UFC Abu Dhabi Odds, Pick & Prediction for Marlon Vera vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Saturday, August 3)

Marlon Vera vs. Deiveson Figueiredo Odds

Here's the latest on the Marlon Vera vs. Deiveson Figueiredo odds for UFC Abu Dhabi on Saturday, August 3, with our expert pick and prediction.

Today's UFC Abu Dhabi main card features the No. 4-ranked UFC bantamweight contender Marlon Vera taking on No. 6-ranked Deiveson Figueiredo.

The steam is on Vera in this matchup; he opened with +124 odds on the moneyline and is now listed at +114 at FanDuel at the time of this writing.

However, I disagree with the steam, and here is how I will be backing the favorite with a method-of-victory prop bet in my Vera vs. Figueiredo preview for UFC Abu Dhabi.

Tale of the Tape

After cementing himself as one of the greatest flyweights in MMA history, Figueiredo is already making noise within his new home at bantamweight. He is 2-0 at 135 pounds, beating Rob Font in a dominating decision that saw three 30-27 scorecards and then submitting former champ Cody Garbrandt.

What's most impressive is not that Figueiredo is winning these fights, but how he's winning. His striking remains smooth but has effortlessly carried the speed of flyweight grappling with the strength of a bantamweight.

He took down Font four times on seven attempts while racking up north of four minutes of control time. Figueiredo also took down Garbrandt prior to submitting him, which is impressive considering the latter's tremendous takedown defense.

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That is exactly why I am pessimistic about Vera's chances in this matchup. Vera is a dangerous striker with an iron chin, but his takedown defense has taken a step back over the past couple of years.

Prior to facing Sean O'Malley and Pedro Munhoz (who combined for one takedown attempt), Vera had been brought to the mat in five consecutive fights.

If this fight goes there, then it is Figueiredo's world.

Vera vs. Figueiredo Pick

The question to ask with this fight is not "Do we back Figueiredo?" but rather "How do we back Figueiredo?" Oddsmakers are expecting this fight to go the distance given that it is priced at -230 to do so.

Subsequently, Figueiredo's method-of-victory odds at FanDuel are as follows:

• KO/TKO (+1700)
• Submission (+950)
• Decision (+105)

It makes sense that Figueiredo by decision is the most likely outcome, and, at plus money, that is how we will back the favorite. We can cross off the knockout prop; if Sean O'Malley's 230 significant strikes (including this vicious knee) couldn't put Vera out, then Figueiredo isn't going to.

Vera is also a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and has never tapped across 33 professional fights, so he can clearly survive on the mat with Figueiredo. However, I think the latter is going to be able to control the pace and remain in dominant position for minutes at a time.

He will do this to win rounds, and eventually go on to win by decision. Figueiredo's chin is right up there with Vera's, and if you take away Chito's power in this fight, then I think there are more paths to victory for Figueiredo to win by decision.

Figueiredo is undefeated in each of his past four fights that went the distance; Vera is 3-6 over his past nine fights that went to the scorecards.

The Pick: Deiveson Figueiredo by decision (+105 at FanDuel | Play to +100)

Bet Figueiredo by Decision Instantly at FanDuel with QuickSlip!

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