UFC Abu Dhabi Odds, Pick & Prediction for Tony Ferguson vs. Michael Chiesa (Saturday, August 3)

Tony Ferguson vs. Michael Chiesa Odds

Here's the latest on the Tony Ferguson vs. Michael Chiesa odds for UFC Abu Dhabi on Saturday, August 3, with our expert pick and prediction.

If being sad and watching MMA is your thing, today's UFC Abu Dhabi main card has quite the treat for you.

Tony Ferguson, a longtime fan favorite and lovable wackadoodle, has sadly reached the point where his eccentricities are now liabilities and no longer fun wild cards to consider in the handicapping process.

Ferguson is understandably a massive underdog to heavily favored Michael Chiesa in their welterweight bout, which has fourth billing on today's network-televised card.

For many fight fans, this isn't a matter of who will win – but how (and just how bad will it get).

Tale of the Tape

"Who gets an eighth chance?"

"El Cucuy" said it best earlier this week during a UFC Abu Dhabi press conference for Saturday's fight. Ferguson will enter the bout with a miserable seven-fight losing skid – a dubious UFC record he now shares with B.J. Penn. Yet, UFC matchmakers keep rolling him out there in higher-profile bouts.

Ferguson is 40 years old, winless over the past half-decade, and we have zero reasons to expect anything different than what we've seen during a skid that dates back to Brexit.

Chiesa, meanwhile, is facing a three-fight losing skid of his own. But it was a pretty brutal stretch of opponents, and before the setbacks, Chiesa had defeated Neil Magny, Rafael dos Anjos, Diego Sanchez and Carlos Condit. That's not a bad run, even with those familiar names being on the tail end of their careers.

Chiesa has once again been tapped to fight a fellow vet. Rather than feed Ferguson to a youngster who could steal the vet's shine, UFC matchmakers have pitted him against 36-year-old Chiesa. Maybe it's a bit of a mercy move. But how merciful is booking Ferguson against anyone – let alone a 6-1 favorite – these days?

Chiesa is a more efficient striker, he absorbs less damage, and he should have the grappling edge, especially with how Ferguson's ground game has declined since his heyday at lightweight. Back in the day, tangling with a D'Arce choke threat like Ferguson could've been kryptonite for Chiesa. These days, though? Chiesa probably won't be scared to get the fight to the mat.

And though I expect Chiesa to get takedowns and control the action on the mat, I don't think betting on a submission is the right play here. Allow me to explain.

Ferguson vs. Chiesa Pick

I'm not sure there's really a silver lining to seven consecutive losses, but if there's anything worth noting, it's that only one of Ferguson's fights lasted shorter than 14 minutes and 54 seconds (that Michael Chandler instant-classic KO). Ferguson even took Paddy Pimblett to a 15-minute decision in his most recent appearance.

Ferguson still has some durability, as crazy as it seems. And Chiesa hasn't finished an opponent since 2018 – back when he was a bigger lightweight instead of an average-sized welterweight. Chiesa also seems to prefer position over damage once he gets to the mat these days, and Ferguson seems all too willing to accept bad positions to ride out the clock.

For me, the play is clearly Chiesa, and to extract the most value, I think we pair it with some type of Over bet on the total. I'll use a same-game parlay at bet365 to put it all together.

There, I can bet Chiesa on the moneyline (-550) with Over 1.5 rounds (-240), which gives us final SGP odds of +105. Essentially, we've taken a -550 favorite and got plus-money odds. We just need the fight to reach the middle of the second round in the process.

KO, submission, decision? It doesn't matter. We just need Chiesa & O1.5 for our bet to cash.

I think bet365 is offering some tremendous value with this play. At ESPN BET, for example, the same SGP is priced at -210. And at DraftKings, it's -140.

The Pick: SGP – Michael Chiesa & Over 1.5 Rounds (+105 at bet365) | Play to -150 

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