UFC Abu Dhabi Odds, Picks, Projections With Best Bets for Sandhagen vs Nurmagomedov (Saturday, August 3)

Check out the latest UFC Abu Dhabi odds with our expert best bets for the Saturday afternoon event, which features Cory Sandhagen vs. Umar Nurmagomedov in the main event.

UFC Abu Dhabi takes place today at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. The preliminary card airs on ESPN2 at noon ET (9 a.m. PT), and the main card airs on ABC at 3 p.m. ET.

The overseas fight card features many familiar names, as well as a high-stakes headliner for the bantamweight division with a potential title shot on the line.

So where should you look to place your bets? Our crew has pinpointed four fights and five picks on Saturday’s Middle East card that present betting value.

You can find their analysis and picks on those matches plus Sean Zerillo's projections below using odds from DraftKings.

UFC Abu Dhabi odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Make your UFC bets with our DraftKings promo code!

Moneyline Projections

Prop Projections

UFC Abu Dhabi Odds & Best Bets

Sean Zerillo: Mackenzie Dern vs. Loopy Godinez

Senior Staff Writer at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 3:25 p.m. ET

Against a common opponent (Virna Jandiroba), McKenzie Dern scored a close decision win (in 2020) while Loopy Godinez lost a clear decision in March after getting out-grappled.

Jandiroba, who held the wrestling advantage over both women, has subsequently proven herself a potential title challenger with her recent main event submission win against Amanda Lemos. And, if anything, that performance flatters Godinez's defensive grappling (denying 5 of 7 takedown attempts and controlling Jandiroba for 22% of grappling positions).

Compared to Jandiroba, Dern is a far more lethal submission threat but a much less proactive or assertive wrestler (attempts 1.4 takedowns per round, 15% accuracy). Godinez (+105), whose sister Ana is currently wrestling at the Olympics, should largely dictate where the fight occurs unless Dern (-125) can seize her back standing.

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Godinez prefers to wrestle her opponents offensively and has spent more of her grappling time in control positions (71% vs. 67%) than Dern, but she'd be better off sprawling and brawling in this fight.

Godinez is the far more technical offensive fighter (48% vs. 40% accuracy) with much more responsible striking defense (63% vs. 51%%)

Loopy has outstruck her opponents at a distance by an average margin of 0.4 per minute while Dern has a -1.8 differential. She should be able to navigate the size discrepancy (two inches of height and reach).

Moreover, Dern has not reacted well to clean strikes in her recent fights. She's always had a brawler's mentality and a ton of heart, but she was badly finished by Jessica Andrade (four knockdowns) and nearly finished by Amanda Lemos (one knockdown) too.

Godinez by KO/TKO (projected +1155, listed +1400) will be on my round-robin tickets this Saturday.

Still, I'd prefer her moneyline at -105 (51.2% implied) or better against my projected line of -113 (53.1% implied).

The Pick: Loopy Godinez (+100 at FanDuel)

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Dann Stupp: Tony Ferguson vs. Michael Chiesa

Senior Editor at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 3:55 p.m. ET

Look, I hate to recycle a fight write-up, but I really do think I've found some serious value in the main-card bout between longtime UFC vets Tony Ferguson (+410) and Michael Chiesa (-550).

Obviously, I don't think it's going to be the night's best fight. In fact, it could be downright sad to watch as Ferguson faces the risks of extending his seven-fight UFC losing skid.

In my Ferguson vs. Chiesa breakdown, I explain why this is a very winnable fight for Chiesa – but also one that could extend for a bit. And when you pair a Chiesa win with Over 1.5 rounds at bet365, we get +105 odds on -550 favorite Chiesa.

Considering sharper sportsbooks have set this same-game parlay with odds at -200 or shorter, there's some real value for us to target here. Ferguson hasn't won since COVID-19 became a thing, but during that seven-fight skid, "El Cucuy" has failed to go over 14 minutes just once.

However, even if you don't have bet365 available in your market, I've got a bonus pick that everyone can tail since it's more widely available.

If Ferguson pulls off the big upset, I doubt he will do it via decision. I just see Chiesa having too much control time if this goes the distance. Additionally, Ferguson hasn't knocked out anyone in a half-decade, and Chiesa's only career KO loss was due to a cut. Chiesa is durable.

So, if Ferguson does win, how does he do it? A submission seems like his likeliest – perhaps only – path to victory. Considering Chiesa has lost by submission in five of his seven career defeats – and twice in his past three bouts – he's clearly vulnerable on the mat. And even as a shell of his former self, Ferguson still has enough unpredictability and creativity to make things funky and difficult for Chiesa when they grapple.

We're going to bet one unit on Chiesa & Over 1.5 rounds with +105 odds. But we're also going to sprinkle 0.1 units on Ferguson to score a submission at +1200 odds.

The Picks: SGP – Michael Chiesa & Over 1.5 rounds (+105 at bet365, 1.0 unit) | Tony Ferguson by submission (+1200 at DraftKings, 0.1 unit)

Billy Ward: Shara Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk 

Staff Writer at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 4:55 p.m. ET

If you ask me, the hype on Shara “Bullet” Magomedov has gone a bit too far. Sure, the wannabe pirate is 2-0 in the UFC, and he's 13-0 as a professional (plus some wins in versions of MMA with slightly different rule sets).

However, the former kickboxer has also had both of his UFC opponents handpicked to suit his style. His debut came against Bruno Silva, another former kickboxer who was also an early opponent of Alex Pereira’s. Need somebody to make your hot striking prospect look good who won't’ wrestle them to death? Silva is your guy.

Silva even took down Magomedov three times in their bout, a bad sign for matchups against more capable grapplers. I’m not confident that Oleksiejczuk (+215) necessarily fits that bill, but it’s an encouraging sign as he readies for Magomedov (-265).

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More importantly for the Polish underdog, he should be able to at least stay competitive in the striking portions of this fight. “Hussar” is 7-6-1 in the UFC, but five of those losses are via submission. He’s never even suffered a knockdown on the feet despite fighting the earlier portion of his UFC career as an undersized light heavyweight.

He’ll be the bigger, stronger fighter against Magomedov, who spent time at welterweight earlier in his career. Plus, Oleksiejczuk has plenty of knockout power of his own with 14 of his 19 pro wins via KO.

Similar to my Best Bet pick last week (Gregory Rodrigues), we have an underdog with a somewhat clear grappling advantage who can at least remain competitive on the feet. This time we’re getting more than 2-to-1 odds, mostly based on the hype around the favorite. I’ll take that bet every time.

The Pick: Michal Oleksiejczuk (+210 at FanDuel)

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Tony Sartori: Cory Sandhagen vs. Umar Nurmagomedov

Contributor at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 5:25 p.m. ET

Saturday's UFC Abu Dhabi main event features a bantamweight bout between the No. 2-ranked contender, Cory Sandhagen (+300), and No. 10 Umar Nurmagomedov (-380). Despite the difference in rankings, Numragomedov is the heavy favorite, and for good reason.

There is no doubt in my mind that he is the best 135-pounder on the planet, and he carries a spotless 17-0 professional record into this bout. The only reason that Nurmagomedov has never gotten a real chance until now is that everyone – and I quite literally mean almost everyone – has ducked him in the bantamweight division.

Making fights for him has been nearly impossible, and Sandhagen deserves his flowers for accepting this bout and putting his championship opportunity on the line. The winner of this fight will surely go on to face the winner of champ Sean O'Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili, and then I believe we will officially enter another "Nurmagomedov era."

What makes Umar so scary is that he could be a 135-pound version of his cousin Khabib – except even better. The reason I say this is that Umar is just as dominant of a wrestler with a strong submission game, but he also carries one-touch power on the feet.

He is essentially a perfect MMA fighter if you were creating one in a video game, and thus, he has absolutely blown through everyone he has faced. I don't think there is a lot of value in backing him at -310, which leaves his method-of-victory props:

• KO/TKO (+750)
• Submission (+300)
• Decision (+130)

Oddsmakers are expecting this fight to go the distance (-120), and I agree. Sandhagen has never been knocked out across 21 professional fights, and he has tapped only once across that stretch.

He is a big step up in competition for Nurmagomedov, and if Umar is ever "not in control," he will fall back on his wrestling. That wrestling will draw out the fight while still giving him rounds, which I project to be the most probable outcome for the heavy favorite. I'm playing it at +130 and would take it to +125.

The Pick: Umar Nurmagomedov by Decision (+130 at FanDuel) | Play to +125

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