Check out our early UFC predictions for UFC Abu Dhabi this Saturday, August 3, with our Luck Ratings.
UFC Abu Dhabi marks the organization's return to the Middle East and network TV. The afternoon event takes place at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. The UFC Abu Dhabi preliminary card starts at noon ET (9 a.m. PT) on ESPN2 before the main card starts on ABC at 3 p.m. ET.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was to start thinking about why markets might be wrong, rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, that’s what a betting line is: a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events happening. For the most part, these markets are efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA – where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA – it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to figure out spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll be looking into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, causing the line to be inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, fights that are later overruled, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights considered, as well.
The focus will be on fights reasonably likely to see the scorecards here, or in which one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
UFC Abu Dhabi odds as of Wednesday and via DraftKings. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC Abu Dhabi Predictions & Luck Ratings
Umar Nurmagomedov (-298) vs. Cory Sandhagen (+240)
The UFC built this card around Umar Nurmagomedov, cousin to all-time great Khabib. Nurmagomedov looks the part of the next great Dagestani champion with a 17-0 overall record and five of those fights coming inside the UFC.
The biggest knock on Nurmagomedov is his relative inactivity. Since signing with the promotion, he has had three withdrawals and five total canceled fights. Some of that may be due to difficulty in finding an opponent; his last appearance was against a UFC newcomer.
Corey Sandhagen is a solid test for Nurmagomedov. He has a 10-3 record with all three losses coming to UFC champions. He's rattled off three straight wins since dropping the interim bantamweight title to Petr Yan by decision with all three wins against top-10 opponents.
Still, Nurmagomedov has looked nigh-unbeatable for the promotion without so much as dropping a round yet.
The location of this fight in Abu Dhabi also suggests this one was put together to showcase Nurmagomedov, so it's easy to see how we got to the current moneyline.
I could see Sandhagen overperforming his moneyline, but it's hard to see him pulling the outright win. This might be a good "points spread" bet depending on the price of that prop, but otherwise, I'm staying away.
Verdict: Fairly valued
Shara Magomedov (-238) vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (+195)
Another fight with a clear "A side" is the co-main event between Shara "Bullet" Magomedov and Michal Oleksiejczuk.
"Bullet" has a lot of hype behind him, thanks as much to his unusual look and backstory as his fighting ability. Magomedov is blind in one eye, calls himself a pirate, and has finished 11 of his 13 pro wins by knockout.
Oleksiejczuk is 7-6 overall in the UFC and 3-3 since dropping to middleweight. However, six of those seven losses (and all of them at his current weight class) have been via submission – and Magomedov has shown neither desire nor ability to grapple so far.
I expect the Polish underdog to be more competitive than the market is suggesting.He's a talented striker in his own right (and has full use of both eyes).
This line is already starting to drop, so grab the +210 at Caesars Sportsbook before it's too late.
Verdict: Michal Oleksiejczuk undervalued
Mackenzie Dern (-130) vs. Loopy Godinez (+110)
I probably shouldn't be surprised to see the money coming in on the very popular Mackenzie Dern. Dern opened as an underdog in the +115 to +125 range, but she's seen a ton of action her way.
On the one hand, stylistically it's not a bad fight for Dern. She's struggled mightily with striking in recent fights, suffering five knockdowns in her past two fights (both within the last eight months). Loopy Godinez has landed just one knockdown of her own in 11 UFC appearances, and she typically prefers to grapple.
On the other hand, Dern has been knocked down five times in the past eight months, and she will struggle to take down Godinez. The likeliest outcome here is a somewhat-sloppy striking matchup, but I'd favor Godinez under those conditions.
Keep an eye on the market in case this peaks at some point, but we can probably continue to get better lines by waiting this one out. The best currently available is +115 at BetMGM, but I suspect better numbers will appear at some point.
Verdict: Loopy Godinez undervalued (be patient)
Kaue Fernandes (-380) vs. Mohammad Yahya (+300)
I don't understand this line at all. Both fighters are 0-1 in the UFC with Kaue Fernandes dropping a split decision to Marc Diakiese in his debut and Mohammad Yahya losing a split to Trevor Peek.
Ordinarily I'd side with the fighter who had the bad luck to lose the split decision, but that one was near-unanimously scored against Fernandes by fans and the media. If anything, Fernandes was lucky that it ended up a split decision.
Yahya fought arguably tougher competition in Peek, and "The UAE Warrior" certainly wasn't given this matchup with the expectation he'll lose it.
Like the Dern vs. Godinez fight, the favorite seems to be taking all the action, so there's no rush to bet Yahya, but I absolutely love him at this price. At the time of this writing, BetMGM has the best line at +310.
Verdict: Mohammad Yahya undervalued (but wait)
