UFC Abu Dhabi Props: Long Shot Picks & Predictions from MMA Prop Squad (Saturday, August 3)

Check out our UFC predictions for UFC Abu Dhabi with our favorite long-shot prop bets for Saturday, August 3.

UFC Abu Dhabi takes place this afternoon at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. The preliminary card airs on ESPN2 & ESPN+ at noon ET (9 a.m. PT), and the main card airs on ABC & ESPN at 3 p.m. ET.

With 13 fights, UFC Abu Dhabi prop opportunities are plentiful, and the MMA Prop Squad has found a handful they like for this afternoon's Middle East card.

Each MMA Prop Squad installment features a handful of picks from our squad of prop-betting enthusiasts, who have tallied +10.3 units and a +2.4% ROI per bet to date.

As with all betting endeavors, always wager within your means. That guidance is especially important when dealing with prop bets. Although the props often offer tantalizing odds, they also cash far less frequently than standard bet types. And be sure to shop around for the best price since prop odds can vary substantially depending on the sportsbook.

UFC Abu Dhabi odds for matchups as of Saturday and via ESPN BET. Bet on the UFC with our ESPN BET promo code!

UFC Props – MMA Prop Squad Predictions

Tony Sartori: Quick Finish in Featured Prelim

Contributor at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 2:25 p.m. ET

Saturday's UFC featured prelim is a battle between light heavyweights Azamat Murzakanov (-225) and Alonzo Menifield (+185). If you are going to back the heavy favorite, then I believe the best way to do so is by taking him to win by KO/TKO in Round 1 at +350.

Murzakanov carries a spotless 13-0, and the pros and cons are pretty simple at this stage of his career. Pros: He hits with insane power and is strong at keeping fights on the feet. Cons: He has a limited gas tank and typically relies on that power to create his victories.

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I suppose you could see he is a one-trick pony whose ceiling in MMA at this level might be limited to that power. At the same time, that is why I love backing him in this specific market instead of laying -210 on the moneyline.

Nine of Murzakanov's 13 professional wins have come by KO/TKO, with seven of those nine knockouts coming in the first round. He has one-touch power, which is bad news for Menifield.

Menifield just got knocked out in 12 seconds against Carlos Ulberg, and now the 36-year-old is making a three-month turnaround against another power puncher. That is simply a recipe for disaster.

The Pick: Azamat Murzakanov by KO/TKO in Round 1 (+350 at FanDuel)

Dann Stupp: +500 Bet on Menifield's Power

Senior Editor at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 2:25 p.m. ET

Alonzo Menifield has enough power to put down just about anyone on the planet.

Yes, he's rushing back too quickly after a 12-second loss to Carlos Ulberg, as my colleague Tony Sartori mentioned above. And yes, 83 days is very little recovery time, especially for a 36-year-old bruiser who's been put through the wringer both as a professional fighter and a pro football player.

I doubt many 205-pounders are lining up to fight his UFC Abu Dhabi opponent, Azamat Murzakanov, who's 13-0 with nine knockouts. Murzakanov is a scary dude, but he's also no youngster himself (35), and he's no doubt suffered some wear and tear during a decade and a half in combat sports.

I really have no other reasons to doubt Murzakanov's chin – but again, he's fighting Menifield, who was blasting fools into KO stoppages just a few years ago.

I know Murzakanov is a popular choice this week for both parlays and early-stoppage props. But I think the market is sleeping a bit on Menifield's early-stopping potential, especially against Murzakanov, who likes to keep an active pace. Murzakanov will also be trying to fight through a five-inch reach disadvantage and a two-inch height disadvantage. Those are some important advantages for Menifield if this fight stays standing.

If Menifield is going to win, he's likely going to do it with his power. At 5-1 odds, I'm willing to bet against the chin of anyone, Murzakanov included.

(Also, if you're looking for another long-shot option, I've got a +1200 play on Tony Ferguson in our UFC Abu Dhabi best bets piece.)

The Pick: Alonzo Menifield by KO/TKO (+500 at FanDuel or Betfred)

Dan Tom: Hot Rounds for Brener

Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Protect Ya' Neck podcast

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 2:55 p.m. ET

For this week's MMA Prop Squad submission, I decided to target some potential "hot rounds" in the main-card opener between Joel Alvarez (-170) and Elves Brener (+140).

Whenever I refer to the term "hot rounds," I'm typically referring to rounds in which there's serious potential for a particular party to finish.

In this case, I'm playing into one of my favorite matchup dynamics: first-round phenoms with suspect gas tanks vs. durable, building fighters who pick up late.

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Although Alvarez has a decent height and reach advantage on paper (something most MMA gamblers lean heavily into), the Spaniard's massive size comes at a cost at this weight class given the potential diminishing returns regarding his staying power.

Not only does Alvarez start to show clear drop-offs at roughly the 5-7 minute mark of fights, but more than a third of Brener's finishes come after the first frame.

Add in the fact that Brener is a dogged and durable fighter who likes to go to the body, and I suspect that the Brazilian will be live to cash if he can survive Round 1.

The Pick: Elves Brener in Round 2 (+1200 at FanDuel) | Brener in Round 3 (+2000 at Betway)

Bet Brener in Round 2 at FanDuel with QuickSlip!

Billy Ward: Juicy Loopy KO Prop

Staff Writer at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 3:25 p.m. ET

There’s a first time for everything. Sure, as bettors we prefer to bet on things we’ve seen happen before, and Loopy Godinez (+100) has never finished a fight with a knockout. However, that’s why we’re getting such a juicy price on her to do just that against Mackenzie Dern (-120).

As I pointed out in my full Godinez vs. Dern betting preview, the stylistic dynamics could turn this one into a striking match. Dern is arguably the most credentialed submission grappler to ever grace the UFC octagon with multiple world championships in gi and no-gi grappling.

Dern also has lackluster (to phrase it generously) takedowns, and she's matched up with a strong wrestler in Godinez, who at least should be trying to keep this one on the feet.

That’s because of Dern’s struggles in the striking department, especially in recent fights. She’s suffered five total knockdowns across her last two matchups with substandard striking metrics across the board.

While Godinez doesn’t have any knockout wins, she did drop Elise Reed with a punch before following up with a submission. That’s less likely against Dern, who could probably work her way out of most submissions even while barely conscious.

Plus, all the damage Dern has taken recently certainly doesn’t help her chin. If there’s ever a time for Godinez to pick up her first career knockout, this is it. Take the +1400 at DraftKings, which also covers us in the case of a Godinez win by disqualification.

The Pick: Loopy Godinez by KO/TKO/DQ (+1400 at DraftKings)

Sean Zerillo: Figgy's 12-1 Submission Play

Senior Writer at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 4:25 p.m. ET

While Marlon "Chito" Vera has proven himself one of the most durable fighters in the sport's history, with a well-rounded offensive game, he's shown a defensive grappling deficiency throughout his MMA career.

In 23 UFC fights, Vera has permitted 23 takedowns on 56 attempts (41%) and spent 67% of his grappling time getting controlled by opponents. Yet he has never officially had to defend against a single submission attempt in the UFC.

Deiveison Figueiredo (-140) is arguably the highest-level grappler Vera (+120) has ever faced in MMA who will pursue takedowns; Figgy has the offensive wrestling (attempts 2.1 takedowns per minute at a distance, 42% accuracy) to get the fight to the mat.

Still, I'd expect to see an early distance-striking match. Vera is often content to take the first round off to read his opponent, and Figueiredo might win a comfortable, low-volume round.

However, I'd expect the Brazilian to mix in takedowns to break Vera's increasing pressure in the second and third frames and to find opportunities to become the first fighter to put Chito in danger of getting finished.

If Figueiredo grapples, he covers his price tag and should have opportunities to hunt for chokes. I projected Figgy's submission prop at +751, which is about 20% of his win condition.

The Pick: Deiveson Figueiredo by submission (+1200 at DraftKings)

Clint MacLean: Too Easy? Nurmagomedov via Submission

Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Die Hard MMA Podcast

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 5:25 p.m. ET

King Umar Nurmagomedov (-360) has finally arrived, and the UFC is giving him the opportunity to shine against one of the biggest fan favorites available in Cory Sandhagen (+270)

Sandhagen is a really fun fighter who uses his length well, but he's always struggled with his grappling.

Sandhagen has fought mostly strikers in his UFC run. However, when looking back at the one time he faced an elite-level grappler, he was submitted in the first round.

King is built for five rounds and has seven professional wins by submission. I fully expect him to school Sandhagen in the art of wrestling, and he will make Khabib proud on Saturday when he secures a title shot with the biggest win and finish of his career.

We are buying into Father's Plan.

The Pick: Umar Nurmagomedov by submission (+300 at FanDuel)

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