Erin Blanchfield vs. Manon Fiorot Odds
Here's our Erin Blanchfield vs. Manon Fiorot pick for UFC Atlantic City on Saturday, March 30 – with our expert prediction.
Tonight the UFC returns to Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, New Jersey, for a likely title eliminator in the women's flyweight division between No. 2-ranked UFC contender Erin Blanchfield and No. 3-ranked Manon Fiorot.
Both flyweights are 6-0 in the UFC, and the winner on Saturday will potentially face Alexa Grasso for flyweight gold at UFC 306 at the Sphere in Las Vegas.
Blanchfield, a New Jersey native, headlined a UFC Apex card against Jessica Andrade in February 2023. Still, she has never seen a fourth round in her professional career, finishing six of her 12 wins inside eight minutes.
Fiorot will headline a UFC card for the first time, but she does have championship-round experience; the Frenchwoman won a five-round decision for the EFC flyweight championship in 2019.
Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC Vegas 89 main event and utilize those factors to bet on these flyweights, who should make their cage walks at approximately 12:25 a.m. ET early Sunday morning (9:25 p.m. PT on Saturday) on ESPN and ESPN+.
Tale of the Tape
| Blanchfield | Fiorot | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 12-1 | 11-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 10:29 | 12:51 |
| Height | 5'4" | 5'7" |
| Weight (pounds) | 125 lbs. | 125.25 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 66" | 65" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 5/4/1999 | 2/17/1990 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.6 | 6.1 |
| SS Accuracy | 52% | 39% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.32 | 3.31 |
| SS Defense | 62% | 69% |
| Take Down Avg | 2.9 | 1.4 |
| TD Acc | 36% | 46% |
| TD Def | 83% | 91% |
| Submission Avg | 1.2 | 0.0 |
Both fighters are well-rounded martial artists, but strength for strength, this is a relatively binary striker (Fiorot) vs. grappler (Blanchfield) matchup.
Either fighter can compete in their weaker discipline but is much likelier to win clear minutes – or finish the fight – in their preferred discipline.
Relative to other flyweights or fighters in smaller divisions, Blanchfield has spectacular pressure once she gets opponents to the mat. Each takedown against Fiorot could be a round in Blancfield's favor, if not the end of the fight.
Still, Blanchfield's offensive wrestling (36% takedown accuracy) has left a bit to be desired thus far against opponents who can counter-wrestle.
Blanchfield struggled against the lanky JJ Aldrich, who denied Blanchfield's four takedown attempts and landed two of her own. I suspect that Fiorot – the stronger fighter with solid counter-wrestling (91% takedown defense) – can keep the fight standing early, land the more technical and powerful strikes, and pull ahead on the scorecards.
Fiorot has excellent offensive judo technique, too, and she could potentially toss Blanchfield to the mat and get on top of the grappler. This might be a good way for Fiorot to stamp the end of a round where she wins the striking exchanges, but I wouldn't recommend it with too much time remaining on the clock; Blanchfield is an excellent scrambler and will likely reverse position if she has time left in the round.
Blanchfield's striking is underrated overall, and she continues to improve as a fighter. Still, Fiorot is significantly stronger, and there should be a noticeable power advantage and a difference in damage absorbed by both fighters.
Blanchfield can push a pace and keep up on output (she averages an additional +1.8 strikes per minute at distance). However, Fiorot is the more efficient striker (+2.7 vs. +0.9 strike differential per minute), the bigger hitter, and the much likelier minute winner on the feet, especially early.
That said, Blanchfield appears very durable, and unless Fiorot puts her away in the first two rounds, I expect a fighter a decade her junior to flip the momentum in a moment in the back half of the fight – or after she consolidates a takedown.
Fiorot cuts a lot of weight to make 125 pounds. While she has the five-round experience among the pair, I'm confident – based on their fighting styles and optics across 15 minutes in the UFC – that Blanchfield will have more gas left in her tank for the championship rounds.
As a result, look to live bet Blanchfield at a better price; I expect her to struggle with Fiorot's physicality early but potentially dominate the back half of the fight.
Blanchfield vs. Fiorot Pick
In this matchup, I projected Erin Blanchfield as a 59.5% favorite (-147 implied odds).
Her moneyline price opened closer to -140 (58.3% implied) and was nearer to -150 (60% implied) on Sunday before steaming upward toward -200 (66.7% implied). The opening odds were likely fair.
After the adjustment, you could bet on the underdog, Manon Fiorot, pre-fight at +160 or better and/or wait for a live entry on Blanchfield at a better price after the line potentially flips after the early rounds.
I projected this fight to reach a decision 56% of the time (-128 implied odds), below the divisional average (61.5%) for women's flyweight but higher than the betting market indicates.
The Goes to Decision prop opened closer to -120 – also more in line with my fair price – before moving to plus money. I'd bet that prop to -110.
In the winning method market, I see correlated value on either fighter to win by decision, compared to best available odds, depending upon which side you prefer: Blanchfield projected +236, listed +255 at BetRivers; Fiorot projected +279, listed +350 at DraftKings.
The Picks: Fight goes to decision (+105 at Caesars, 0.5u) | Erin Blanchfield live any time after Round 1
