Vicente Luque vs. Joaquin Buckley Odds
Here's our Vicente Luque vs. Joaquin Buckley pick for UFC Atlantic City on Saturday, March 30 – with our expert prediction.
The co-headliner on ESPN features an impromptu welterweight showdown between Vicente Luque and Joaquin Buckley.
Initially slated to face Sean Brady, Luque will now meet Buckley, who is currently on a two-fight winning streak since dropping back down to 170 pounds.
Even though Buckley is technically stepping in on short notice, the St. Louis native has apparently been eyeing this spot since December and preparing accordingly.
If Buckley can get past his biggest name to date, then don't be surprised to see him steal Luque's spot in the rankings.
Tale of the Tape
| Luque | Buckley | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 22-9-1 | 17-6 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 10:07 | 9:58 |
| Height | 5'11" | 5'10" |
| Weight (pounds) | 170 lbs. | 170 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 75" | 76" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 11/27/1991 | 4/27/1994 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.2 | 3.9 |
| SS Accuracy | 52% | 33% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 5.15 | 3.31 |
| SS Defense | 52% | 57% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| TD Acc | 60% | 36% |
| TD Def | 62% | 65% |
| Submission Avg | 0.7 | 0.0 |
Although it appears we're in for a strikers' delight on paper, both men are more well-rounded than they're given credit for.
Buckley, who fits the bill as an explosive southpaw slugger at first glance, has steadily been shoring up his striking technique as of late.
Despite still being prone to moving in straight lines with rote combinations, Buckley has done a lot better at moving laterally and getting off-line after his offensive blitzes.
Buckley has also added more kicks to his already dynamic offerings, but he isn't afraid to mix in takedowns to keep his opponents guessing. That said, I'm not sure how much shooting Buckley will be looking to do opposite a front-headlock threat like Luque.
Even though Luque is often associated with exciting fights due to his brawling sensibilities, it's easy to forget that the New Jersey-born fighter also carries black belts in both Brazilian jiu-jitsu and luta livre.
Not only does Luque have a nasty D'arce choke that he can snatch up on a moment's notice, but he's also demonstrated some upgrades in his defensive wrestling since moving his training camps to South Florida full-time.
Since making the jump stateside, Luque has also shown improved fight IQ, both defensively and offensively.
Luque may have looked slightly tentative on the feet in his last outing (likely due to the one-year layoff he was returning from), but I did like that he was jabbing and kicking more against an opponent in the open stance.
Luque has also traditionally been a deadly counterpuncher, so exchanges should be spicy for as long as they last.
Luque vs. Buckley Pick
Despite the oddsmakers opening the Brazilian as the favorite, public money continues to trickle in on the younger party, and the fight is now a pick'em with Luque -110 and Buckley -110 as of this writing.
As much as I'd love to make my usual jab about the betting public tripping over themselves to fade the older fighter, I can't say that I blame them in this spot.
Aside from short-notice fighters proving that you can't sleep on them from a results perspective, there are some serious flags that you need to consider when looking at the Luque side of things.
Despite officially standing at 4-2 opposite UFC-level southpaws, left hands continue to be a common culprit for Luque in both victory and defeat.
🪡 #TheSouthpawReport for #UFCVegas78:
• Vicente Luque, who faces RDA, is 3-2 opposite UFC-level lefties (W: Chiesa, Turner, Barberena; L: Edwards, Neal)
Luque prods w/lead hand & leg kicks to draw exchanges and land heavy counters but left-sided strikes are his common culprit pic.twitter.com/eZ30C7CZCm
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) August 11, 2023
Add in an on-the-record TBI for Luque, and I can see why people were eager to take a stab at Buckley at plus money.
But with that window largely gone, I suggest taking a look at the decision prop (which is currently going off at north of 3-1 odds) if you're looking to support Buckley.
Although a knockout isn't out of the question, Luque has proven that it takes quite a lot to get the veteran out of there. Whereas Buckley, despite being the younger fighter, looks to be the less durable combatant.
Add in the fact that Buckley's style and stature arguably play right into Luque's game, and I'll be taking a stab at the veteran to find a finish tonight.
From Buckley dipping into head kicks to running into hooking counters and front chokes, I see far too many on-paper opportunities for Luque not to take a shot on him to win inside the distance.
The Pick: Vicente Luque by KO, TKO, DQ or Submission (+160 at bet365)
