Let’s look into some mispriced betting lines for UFC Austin on Saturday and see which fighters are overvalued and which are undervalued heading into tonight's ESPN event.
UFC Austin, also dubbed UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Dariush, takes place at the Moody Center in Texas. The 12-bout event kicks off at 4 p.m. ET (1 p.m. PT) with the preliminary card on ESPN+, and then the event shifts to ESPN for the main card at 7 p.m. ET.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was to start thinking about why markets might be wrong, rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, that’s what a betting line is: a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events happening. For the most part, these markets are efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA – where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA – it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to figure out spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll be looking into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, causing the line to be inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, fights that are later overruled, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights considered, as well.
The focus will be on fights reasonably likely to see the scorecards here, or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
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Arman Tsarukyan (-278) vs. Beneil Dariush (+225)
The UFC Austin main event is set up to be a passing of the guard. Beneil Dariush has long been one of the UFC's best fighters not to be granted a title shot, and the lightweight division seems to be shaking out in such a way that he'll pass that mantle on to Arman Tsarukyan on Saturday,
Tsarukyan is a solid 7-2 in the UFC, but he's been even better than his record suggests.
His first loss for the promotion was in his UFC debut, which he took on short notice against Islam Makhachev – a fight that still stands as one of the lightweight champion's closest calls in the UFC octagon. Tsarukyan's other "loss" was a close decision against Mateusz Gamrot that I believe strongly should've gone the other way.
The veteran Dariush is 16-5-1 in 22 UFC fights, but he has won eight of his last nine, including a win of his own over Gamrot, albeit in a three-round fight.
Dariush's lone loss was a first-round stoppage to Charles Oliveira in what was allegedly a title-eliminator matchup. Dariush does have one split-decision win across his eight-fight winning streak, but he's been largely dominant over that stretch.
Still, Dariush is seven years older and probably on the back end of his prime while Tsarukyan has been improving in every appearance. Add to that Tsarukyan's experience in five-round fights and the questionable (or at least excusable) nature of his losses, and it's clear why he's the favorite.
Unfortunately, most of the value has already been bet out of this line with Tsarukyan opening around -180 at various books. This line is about right as it stands, and we'll be looking to the UFC Austin prop market for alternative ways to bet it for Saturday.
Verdict: Fairly Valued
Jalin Turner (-245) vs. Bobby Green (+200)
Bobby Green was originally set to fight Dan Hooker in the UFC Austin co-main event, but an injury to Hooker forced a late replacement. Fortunately, Jalin Turner is stepping in on short notice in what promises to be an exciting lightweight fight.
On the one hand, Green is coming in on a two-fight winning skid, both stoppages. He also has the obvious benefit of a full fight camp, though the stylistic difference between Hooker and Turner is massive so that only goes so far in this case.
Turner has dropped two straight, including one in which he came in on short notice, had some early success, and then faded as the fight went on.
All of which would point to Green as the deserving favorite here – until we dig a bit deeper.
Both of Turner's losses were split decisions, and they were against arguably tougher competition in Mateusz Gamrot and Hooker (who was roughly a -175 favorite over Green).
Green's winning streak included a somewhat fluky (if not lucky) flash knockout over Grant Dawson and a third-round submission of an entirely-washed Tony Ferguson, neither of which inspires much confidence.
Still, the lack of camp for a fighter that tends to fade late in fights creates some clear angles here. Turner probably needs a finish or two dominant rounds, and Green should take over as the fight goes on.
I'm passing on the moneyline for now, but Green's undervalued for his odds to win this one late.
Verdict: Bobby Green Undervalued – Decision-Only or Late-Win Markets
Zach Reese (-218) vs. Cody Brundage (+180)
I hesitate to even include this one given the line, but Cody Brundage got one of the luckiest breaks in a long time in his last fight.
Brundage entered the bout against Jacob Malkoun on a three-fight losing skid, and he was a clear candidate to be cut from the UFC following a loss.
In that bout, Malkoun dominated Brundage, and he was mere seconds away from finishing him via ground and pound.
However, an errant elbow clipped the back of Brundage's head, and the referee decided to call Malkoun for a rarely enforced foul for striking the back of the head. Since the strike was deemed intentional – and Brundage may have done a bit of acting – the bout was declared a DQ win for Brundage.
Which puts Brundage on a four-fight streak of being the inferior fighter in the cage – hence the favorite odds on Zach Reese for this preliminary-card bout.
I expect this line to move even further toward the undefeated Contender Series fighter, making Reese an early value.
Verdict: Zach Reese Undervalued
Veronica Hardy (-112) vs. Jamie-Lynn Horth (-108)
Neither Veronica Hardy nore Jamie-Lynn Horth has a split or majority decision result on her UFC record with both of them having relatively high finish rates both in and out of the UFC, especially by women's flyweight standards.
As such, there's not much "luck" to be discussed on either record.
Horth finished all five of her pre-UFC wins, and she then took home a solid if unspectacular unanimous decision victory in her UFC debut.
Hardy was 1-4 for the promotion before her three years away from the sport, but she came back with a dominant unanimous decision win over Julianna Miller in March.
Both UFC wins were against a fairly low level of opposition, but I was considerably more impressed by Hardy's performance than Horth's. Given the time away, it feels fairly safe to throw away her record from her earlier UFC stint, especially since Hardy is still just 28.
Despite that, the line has moved considerably toward Hardy since opening with Horth as a -130 or so favorite. My guess is oddsmakers were looking at Hardy's overall UFC record and not properly considering the long gap in competition.
I expect that trend to continue, making a bet on Hardy a solid way to collect some closing line value. She's still -110 at BetMGM and Caesars as of this writing early in the week, though the slightly longer lines elsewhere are fine too.
Verdict: Veronica Hardy Undervalued
