Check out our UFC Austin best bets for the Saturday event at the Moody Center in Texas, which is available on ESPN and ESPN+.
UFC Austin kicks off at 4 p.m. ET (1 p.m. ET) with the preliminary card on ESPN+, and then the main card airs on ESPN beginning at 7 p.m. ET. Tonight's UFC event features 12 bouts in all, including a lightweight headliner of Beneil Dariush vs. Arman Tsarukyan.
However, the main event is just one fight we're targeting for our UFC Austin best bets. We're finding value on other matchups too.
So where should be looking to place your bets? Our crew has pinpointed four fights and picks on Saturday’s solidly deep fight card that present betting value.
You can find their analysis and picks on those matchups below.
Billy Ward: Drakkar Klose vs. Joe Solecki
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 5:25 p.m. ET
It speaks to how stacked the UFC Austin fight card is that Drakkar Klose (-125) vs. Joe Solecki (+120) is mostly a prelims afterthought. The two lightweights have combined for a 12-3 record in the UFC, and both are entering on two-fight winning streaks.
With that said, Klose’s most recent UFC appearance was more than 15 months ago due to a torn ACL suffered last summer. His current winning streak also came on the heels of another extended layoff of more than two years, also largely due to injuries.
While he obviously rebounded successfully from his first absence, Klose is now 35. Injuries are starting to pile up, and they get much harder to rebound from with age.
Beyond that, it’s also a sneakily difficult matchup for Klose. He’s at his best when working from top position on the ground, and he has takedowns in all but one of his seven UFC wins. Both of his losses came against opponents who were able to take him to the mat.
Which is a tough setup against Solecki, an accomplished submission grappler and a BJJ black belt. Solecki took UFC middleweight Gregory Rodrigues to a draw in a grappling match, and he has a win over Donald Cerrone in another.
Klose should probably have an edge on the feet, but his striking game is built around striking into the clinch and taking his opponents to the canvas. Given the matchup, that could get him into serious trouble. Plus, Solecki is likely to initiate plenty of grappling himself.
I’d make this one about a pick'em – if we knew Klose was at full strength. Between the matchup and the injuries Solecki should be favored here, and I’d take his moneyline down to -110.
The Pick: Joe Solecki (+120 at Caesars)
Dann Stupp: Miesha Tate vs. Julia Avila
Senior Editor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 6:25 p.m. ET
MMA – and MMA betting – aren't for the kindhearted. To succeed, bettors must be ruthlessly unemotional and willing to fade fan favorites and bet on the demise of former greats.
However, for UFC Austin, I'm not so quick to fade one notable vet: former champ Miesha Tate (+120), who meets fellow bantamweight Julia Avila (-148) in UFC Austin's featured prelim.
Tate is 1-2 since returning from a five-year-retirement-turned-layoff with recent back-to-back decision losses to Ketlen Vieira and Lauren Murphy. The 37-year-old would seem a perfect candidate to fade on Saturday night.
But on the opposite side of the octagon will be an opponent with just as many red flags – yet with a far inferior level of competition during her four career UFC fights (by comparison, Tate has 12 UFC bouts – plus seven Strikeforce appearances).
Avila also hasn't fought since July 2021. Since then, she's had knee surgery and a child – with a weight gain and subsequent loss of nearly 100 pounds over the past year, she said this week. Oh, and Avila's also 35 – just two years younger than Tate.
This isn't the old vet getting fed to the new hot-shot prospect. Avila will have the edge standing and Tate on the mat, and we could see some dramatic swings in momentum throughout the bout. But ultimately, we're probably going to see some close rounds.
In that case, give me the plus money on a fighter with more cage savvy and a better weapon (wrestling/takedowns) to help swing close rounds.
I like Tate in this spot, and I like her at any odds at better than a coin flip (+100).
The Pick: Miesha Tate (+120 at FanDuel)
Dan Tom: Punahele Soriano vs. Dustin Stoltzfus
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 6:55 p.m. ET
Despite having some sort of bias on both sides of this matchup, I can't help but target UFC Austin's main-card opener between Punahele Soriano (-334) and Dustin Stoltzfus (+250).
Soriano is the deserved favorite in this spot, but I don't blame anyone for not digging the Hawaiian's price tag from a moneyline perspective.
However, if you're still looking to have action on this fight, then I suggest looking at prop options for Soriano to win "inside the distance."
Aside from the fact that Soriano is an athletic striker with the wrestling skills to keep things standing, Stoltzfus is officially 0-2 against UFC-level southpaws and is coming off a long layoff due to health issues.
Dustin Stoltzfus, who faces Punahele Soriano at #UFCAustin, is officially 0-2 opposite UFC-level southpaws (losing to G. Meerschaert and K. Daukaus)
Stoltzfus likes to shift stances in order to match southpaws but counter crosses seem to be the common culprit. #TheSouthpawReportpic.twitter.com/yH9rm6xQh8
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) December 1, 2023
Add in Stoltzfus' propensity to eat left hands, and I suspect that Soriano gets back on track in impressive fashion this Saturday.
As of this writing, Betway has the best odds for Punahele Soriano to win by KO/submission, though you can find -125 at multiple other books.
The Pick: Punahele Soriano by Finish (-120 at Betway)
Tony Sartori: Beneil Dariush vs. Arman Tsarukyan
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:25 p.m. ET
In the main event of this weekend's UFC Austin event, Beneil Dariush (+225) and Arman Tsarukyan (-290) clash in a lightweight bout between two ranked contenders.
My colleague Billy Ward wrote a tremendous Dariush vs. Tsarukyan breakdown of the fight, and there is one point I particularly agree with him on. In that breakdown, he stated that "if Tsarukyan is unable to finish Dariush early, the fight should get closer and closer as it wears on."
I completely agree with him on that point, but the difference between us is that I believe that Tsarukyan will get Dariush out of there early. If you like this fight to go closer to the "championship rounds" or scorecards, then I agree that Dariush's win probability increases.
Look, both guys are excellent mixed martial artists and among the best the world has to offer in the 155-pound weight class. There is no aspect of MMA that these guys aren't comfortable in; both can strike, counterstrike, grapple, wrestle and work in the clinch.
However, every fight starts on the feet, and Dariush's chin is the biggest weakness between either fighter in this bout. We just saw Charles Oliveira knock out Dariush in June, which marked the fourth time out of his five losses that a knockout led to his opponent's hand getting raised. On the flip side, we know Tsarukyan carries that power with three knockouts over his past four victories, all of which came from his fists.
Finally, Father Time is undefeated.
Dariush is seven years the elder, and like Billy said in that aforementioned article, "We've likely seen the best Dariush has to offer while Tsarukyan continues to improve." I will forever be upset with the UFC for the way it handled Dariush's career since he should have gotten a title-eliminator fight far earlier in his career than at 34 years old against one of the best MMA practitioners of all time.
With that said, the window seems to have passed on Dariush while Tsarukyan's is just beginning to open up.
The Pick: Arman Tsarukyan by KO (+145 at FanDuel)
