Jalin Turner vs. Bobby Green Odds
The UFC Austin co-main event on Saturday features an impromptu meeting at 155 pounds between Bobby Green and Jalin Turner.
Green, who is amid a Jorge Masvidal-like career renaissance, was originally slated to face Dan Hooker on this date.
However, after Hooker had to pull out due to injury, the UFC turned to Turner to fill the spot on tonight's fight card.
Turner may officially be riding a two-fight skid into their ESPN contest, but "The Tarantula" was competitive in both split-decision defeats – even having a strong argument for defeating the highly ranked Mateusz Gamrot.
Here's a look at the odds and my Turner vs. Green prediction and betting pick.
Tale of the Tape
| Turner | Green | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 13-7 | 31-14-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 7:31 | 11:33 |
| Height | 6'3" | 5'10" |
| Weight | 156 pounds | 155 pounds |
| Reach (inches) | 77 | 71 |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 5/18/1995 | 9/9/1986 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.8 | 6.2 |
| SS Accuracy | 48% | 52% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.6 | 3.7 |
| SS Defense | 41% | 62% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| TD Acc | 55% | 37% |
| TD Def | 75% | 74% |
| Submission Avg | 1.3 | 0.3 |
Despite Green and Turner being underrated grapplers, both men prefer to sort things out on the feet.
An unorthodox striker who is widely known for his shoulder-rolling sensibilities, Green is not shy when it comes to exchanging and entertaining.
Comfortably operating out of either stance, Green's modus operandi involves pulling and returning punches.
The last time The King stepped inside the Octagon he finished Grant Dawson in 33 seconds 👑@BobbyKGreen is back at #UFCAustin this Saturday!
[ Watch LIVE on ESPN & ESPN+ | 7pmET/4pmCT ] pic.twitter.com/EfzBJfXOvu
— UFC (@ufc) November 30, 2023
Whether Green is slipping to safety or extending combinations on the counter, he does a solid job at diversifying his targets and shot selection.
That said, Green will need to be mindful of his low-handed slips opposite a southpaw like Turner.
Aside from being massive for the division, Turner seems to carry all the weapons that a southpaw should never leave home without.
From hardwired check hooks to counter crosses, Turner demonstrates a sharp speed and timing that tends to make early rounds nightmares for his opposition.
Once he starts, the Tarantula can't stop 🕷️@JalinTurner is taking on Bobby Green in the #UFCAustin co-main this weekend! pic.twitter.com/ctF5zDKuej
— UFC (@ufc) November 29, 2023
Turner is also good about going to the body and mixing high kicks into his repertoire (as the latter should serve him particularly well in this matchup).
Although Green is the better wrestler and scrambler of the two, the 37-year-old veteran will need to respect the submission skills of Turner.
Turner may be more of an opportunistic threat, but the Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt has made steady improvements to his ground game in recent years.
ESPN Bet Sportsbook is now another option to maximize your UFC Austin action. You can now use our ESPN BET promo code TANBONUS for a new user welcome.
Turner vs. Green Pick
The oddsmakers and the public are favoring the younger fighter. Turner is -230 and Green is +180 at multiple sportsbooks, including Betway and BetRivers, as of this writing.
Death, taxes and the MMA gambling community fading aging fighters, right?
In defense of anyone backing the favorite, I would probably also pick Turner if this fight were on a full camp.
But between Turner taking this fight on six days' notice to the fact that he looks like he's already outgrowing the lightweight division, I can't help but side with the proven product in Green.
Aside from Green already preparing for a tall, stance-switching fighter for this particular date, Turner has shown to slow down in fights in which he's had a full camp.
Couple that with Green's high pace and consistent bodywork, and I suspect that Turner's winning conditions significantly decrease if this fight sees the end of the first frame.
Although Turner's southpaw counters will be lively early, the 28-year-old lacks the cage-corralling footwork and the ability to extend combinations that have traditionally troubled Green in past southpaw encounters.
For that reason, I believe that we are getting a solid deal on Green at big plus money.
I'll be kicking for coverage by playing the moneyline, but feel free to take a gander at Green to win in Round 3 (+1900) or same-game parlays (SGPs) that offer Green to win "in the final round or by decision" (+300) if you're trying to get cute.
The Pick: Bobby Green (+180 at BetRivers)
