Welcome to the latest edition of MMA Prop Squad, in which we offer an array of UFC Austin prop bets with oversized odds for Saturday's ESPN event.
Each Prop Squad installment features a handful of picks from our squad of prop-betting enthusiasts, who have tallied +17.1 units and a +6.0% ROI per bet to date.
This week marks the return of squad members Bryan Fonseca, Liam Heslin, Dan Tom, Clint MacLean and Tony Sartori for UFC Austin.
Check out their picks for tonight's event, which includes prelims on ESPN+ (4 p.m. ET) and a main card on ESPN (7 p.m. ET), below. With odds of up to +850, we've got some big potential payouts on these props.
As with all betting endeavors, always wager within your means. That guidance is especially important when dealing with prop bets. Although the props often offer tantalizing odds, they also cash far less frequently than standard bet types. And be sure to shop around for the best price because prop odds can vary substantially depending from sportsbook to sportsbook.
Bryan Fonseca: Julia Avila by KO (+510)
Contributor at The Action Network and combat sports host and on-air talent
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 6:25 p.m. ET
This is a bet on Miesha Tate going out the way veterans who hang around for too long often do.
Now, in fairness, Tate did retire for nearly five years before surprisingly coming back in 2021.
But the comeback for the 37-year-old and former bantamweight champion has dwindled in excitement following a surprising TKO victory over Marion Reneau in her return fight in July 2021.
Since then, Tate had fleeting moments against Ketlen Viera two years ago and looked overwhelmed against Lauren Murphy in July 2022.
Julia Avila (-139), who is 9-2 heading into her bout with Tate (+114), has four knockout victories in her MMA career, including one over Gina Mazany in her second career UFC bout in June 2020.
She'll bring forward a one-inch height and four-inch reach advantage to impose on Tate.
This is a +510 sprinkle for a reason, but it's a bet on combat sports – and mixed martial arts – history repeating itself.
The Pick: Julia Avila by KO (+510 at BetRivers)
Liam Heslin: Punahele Soriano by Submission (+850)
Contributor at The Action Network and host of Liam Picks Fights
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 6:55 p.m. ET
Punahele Soriano is a Hawaiian wrestle-boxer with devastating power in his hands and a penchant for producing memorable knockouts. I've lost money before backing this submission prop with Soriano, but I believe this is a long-term investment based on the historical data we have on Puna.
Soriano is 2-0 career to the submission, and his opponent was submitted in two out of four UFC appearances.
Some sharper books are holding this number as low as +425, so I see value on this number at anything above +700 (12.5% implied).
Soriano (-290) has secured multiple rear-naked-choke finishes, and we saw that exact move catch UFC Austin opponent Dustin Stoltzfus (+235) in each of his previous losses.
I see a club and sub in the first two rounds for Soriano, but if you want to cover the submission upside of his opponent, betting on either fighter to win by submission ("fight ends via submission") is as high as +470 (17.5% implied)
The Pick: Punahele Soriano by Submission (+850)
Dan Tom: Joaquim Silva in Round 2 (+525)
Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Protect Ya' Neck podcast
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:25 p.m. ET
For this week's Prop Squad submission, I targeted a round prop with lots of potential in the main-card attraction between Clay Guida (+240) and Joaquim Silva (-330).
Considering that Guida hasn't defeated an athletically prime fighter in the past decade, it's not hard to see why Silva is favored to win in this spot.
That said, I suspect Guida's wrestling ability and veteran savvy will be enough to get him through the first round with Silva.
Despite being a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt on paper, Silva traditionally prefers to strike and seldom seems to be in a rush to force grappling or submission scenarios.
Silva has also been much more measured with his pace as he's matured while seemingly finding success the later fights go.
Whether we're talking about his most recent win over Jesse Ronson or his last loss to the highly touted Arman Tsarukyan, Silva seems to have a penchant for hurting people in the second round.
So long as Guida doesn't get instantly knocked out cold in the opening frame, then I suspect that he can scramble, stall and survive until the second round.
The Pick: Joaquim Silva in Round 2 (+525 at Betfred)
Clint MacLean: Deiveson Figueiredo by Submission (+550)
Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Die Hard MMA Podcast
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:25 p.m. ET
I know it sounds terrifying to take a finish prop against Rob Font, a man who has been finished only one time in his professional career.
However, I believe that Deiveson Figueiredo (+114) has the same skill set that Pedro Munhoz used to find a finish. We've seen Font (-134) exposed recently in the grappling department, and Figgy is training at Fight Ready with Olympic champion Henry Cejudo.
You have to believe that wrestling will be a part of the game plan given what we just saw, and Figgy will be much stronger with the extra size.
We have also seen Font hurt on the feet, and he shoots sloppy and desperate takedowns when compromised. Figueiredo has one of the tightest squeezes we have ever seen, and he has no issue jumping on a neck to secure a win.
Font will either get taken down or cracked and shoot himself, but at some point, this fight will hit the ground. And at +550, I will take that shot on "The God of War" to catch his favorite submission.
The Pick: Deiveson Figueiredo by Submission (+550 at FanDuel)
Tony Sartori: Bobby Green by KO (+550)
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:55 p.m. ET
In the co-main event of Saturday's UFC Austin, No. 13-ranked lightweight contender Bobby Green (+162) takes on No. 12 contender Jalin Turner (-200).
Turner did the UFC a big favor by stepping in on short notice here, an offer he initially turned down. It's not shocking that Turner didn't want this fight on short notice for a few reasons.
First, he already has enough trouble making 155 pounds with a full training camp. After two attempts on Friday, Turner indeed did make weight, but he looked absolutely terrible on the scale.
Second, Green is as dangerous as ever right now. He's coming off two straight finishes over Tony Ferguson and Grant Dawson, the latter of which was a convincing knockout performance against a guy who had been surging up the 155-pound conversation as a legit contender.
I lean more toward Turner in this matchup with a full camp, but there is just so much going against "The Tarantula" on Saturday. He looked fragile on the scale and is coming in on short notice while coming off two straight losses to Mateusz Gamrot and Dan Hooker.
While those were both split-decision defeats, Turner's chin surely isn't invincible. He was knocked out by Vicente Luque at UFC 229 and twice before joining the UFC.
We all know the power that Green brings to the table, and considering the circumstances regarding this fight coming to fruition, I think there are worse fliers to take on Saturday than Green collecting back-to-back knockouts at +550 via Betway.
The Pick: Bobby Green by KO (+550 at Betway)
