The UFC train keeps rolling on Wednesday night.
Just a few nights after the world's flagship mixed martial arts promotion hosted the first major sporting event in the United States in two months, the UFC will put on another deep fight card live on ESPN+/ESPN.
Fight Night: Smith vs. Teixeira is set for 11 fights — six on the preliminary card and five on the main show — live from VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, Fla.
The six-fight preliminary card is set to start at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN+ with the main card following at 9 p.m. ET.
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Sean Zerillo
Betting Analyst, The Action Network
Anthony Smith vs. Glover Teixeira
Although Wednesday’s Fight Night card pales in comparison to the historic UFC 249 pay-per-view we just witnessed, there are a lot of exciting fights for bettors including the main-event — a light-heavyweight matchup between No. 4 contender Anthony “Lionheart” Smith and No. 8 Glover Teixeira.
After scraping data and crowdsourcing more than 2,000 predictions for this fight, the consensus opinion is that Smith wins this bout 69% of the time, implied odds of -223.
As a result, Smith is probably undervalued by roughly 3.5% at the current odds of -190 (implied 65.5%). Use our betting calculator to find your edge if you have different odds.
However, Teixeira to win by TKO (+700) or submission (+400) are both extremely appealing prop bets. He presents a compelling, versatile test for Smith to overcome, but I think that “Lionheart” proves too strong and fit for the 40-year-old.
The Pick: Anthony Smith (-190)
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Dann Stupp
MMA Managing Editor at The Athletic
Alexander Hernandez vs. Drew Dober
As previously stated, this card doesn’t have quite the pizzaz that Saturday’s UFC 249 lineup offered, but the weeknight event does offer some potential barnburners, and Drew Dober vs. Alexander Hernandez is one of my most anticipated.
Dober has rather quietly racked up seven years and 14 fights in the UFC, and the 31-year-old is finally gelling after a 5-1 run that includes recent back-to-back knockout wins over Nasrat Haqparast and Marco Polo Reyes. Hernandez, meanwhile, has less than half the experience that Dober does, but the 27-year-old is equally well-rounded and has lost only to Donald Cerrone in his four UFC fights to date.
Both lightweight push the pace and can put together punches in bunches, but southpaw Dober, who trains with the tight-knit Elevation Fight Team in Colorado, has faced a far more daunting battery of 155-pounders (and 170-pounders) during an 11-year career. Hernandez, an eight-year vet, has a slight reach advantage and has proven his power to be quite capable, but I think he’s meeting a surging Dober at an inopportune time.
I was leaning toward Dober when he opened at -140, and at the current line of -120, I happily jumped in. Expect an entertaining back-and-forth fight for as long as it lasts, but I think Dober maintains a small but steady lead and pulls away in the second half of the fight.
The Pick: Dober -125
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Malik Smith
MMA/Boxing Editor, The Action Network
Michael Johnson vs. Thiago Moises
At the time of writing Johnson is either a slight underdog or a pick'em to Moises in this fight depending on the book. The UFC experience gap between the two can't be ignored, though. Johnson, who has been in the UFC for nearly 10 years, is looking to snap a two-fight losing streak. Moises has fought just three times in the octagon with a 1-2 record.
Johnson is the more active striker landing 4.22 strikes per minute to Moises' 2.96. And while Moises sports a much higher takedown average (1.22) than his opponent, Johnson is among the best in the lightweight division at defending takedowns at 79.4% per FightMetric. Johnson should have the advantage whether Moises tries to fight him standing up or attempts to get him to the ground.
Given the odds, I'll take the experienced vet as a slight dog.
The Pick: Michael Johnson (-110)
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Michael Leboff
Editor, The Action Network
Ovince Saint Preux vs. Ben Rothwell
There is plenty of variance when you talk about heavyweights and variance tends to run wild when the big boys do battle, whether it be in the octagon or in the squared circle.
That being said, there's a pretty clear path to victory for both of these fighters. After three consecutive losses via decision, Ben Rothwell ended his three-fight slide with a KO victory over Stefan Struve in December.
Rothwell, who was inactive for almost three years between 2016 and 2019, hasn't won a decision since 2010 so you can expect him to be aggressive and try and control his own destiny on Wednesday night.
I also expect OSP to try and be on the front foot as seven of his last eight fights have ended inside the distance. Saint Preux is 5-3 in those fights and four of those victories came via submission.
The odds imply that Saint Preux wins this fight more often than not (54.4% implied probability) and the -179 odds on the fight to end inside the distance tells you that the oddsmakers are expecting a stoppage 59.8% of the time. If OSP is the most likely winner and there's a good chance that the fight ends early, I'm happy to take a shot on OSP to defeat Rothwell in his signature fashion at a good price.
The Pick: Ovince Saint Preux to win by submission (+400)
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