Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Jailton Almeida Odds
On Saturday the UFC returns to North Carolina for UFC Charlotte, an 11-fight card featuring a heavyweight main event between No. 12-ranked contender Jailton Almeida and No. 9 Jairzinho Rozenstruik.
Saturday will mark Almeida's first appearance in a UFC main event. The Brazilian is 5-0 under the UFC banner and will look to maintain his 100% career finish rate on Saturday.
Rozenstruik, meanwhile, will make his fifth main-event appearance; 14 of "Bigi Boy's" 17 professional MMA bouts have ended inside the distance.
Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections and utilize those factors to bet on the main event for UFC Charlotte. The prelims air on ESPN at noon ET (9 a.m. PT) before moving to ABC for the main card at 3 p.m. ET.
Tale of the Tape
| Rozenstruik | Almeida | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 13-4 | 18-2 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 8:01 | 5:21 |
| Height | 6'2" | 6'3" |
| Weight (pounds) | 242 lbs. | 231 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 78" | 79" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 3/17/1988 | 6/26/1991 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 2.93 | 4.19 |
| SS Accuracy | 46% | 64% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.23 | 0.34 |
| SS Defense | 45% | 10% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.00 | 6.73 |
| TD Acc | 0% | 70% |
| TD Def | 75% | 50% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 2.2 |
Rozenstruik is the much bigger man. He weighed 34 pounds heavier than Almeida on Friday at weigh-ins, and the differential should be more significant by fight time after Rozenstruik rehydrates.
Almeida has competed at light heavyweight, but the weight cut takes a toll on his body (and his gas tank), and it's easier for him to stay active at heavyweight. Additionally, fighting against true heavyweights helps to maximize his skill set; the level of grappling among the larger fighters is significantly lower than the technique in lighter weight divisions. And he's dominated fellow grapplers too:
There aren't many heavyweights on the planet who can compete with Almeida's jiu-jitsu prowess, and he's a decent wrestler for a jiu-jitsu practitioner, which is relatively uncommon.
Almeida typically throws a kick and then immediately looks to shoot a takedown in his UFC fights, where he can look to put his opponents' shoulders flat on the mat or take their back if they provide any resistance. While Rozenastruik has solid first-level takedown defense (70%), he's too slow to shrug Almeida off and get back to range or attempt to sprawl and brawl.
Perhaps Rozenstruik denies the initial takedown attempt or can scramble back to his feet, but I expect Almeida to wrangle and ragdoll him at some point early. Unless Roznestruik lands an uppercut as Almeida enters, he will be in for a rough ride in the first round.
Still, tossing that much weight around will tire out Almeida – who already has suspect cardio. And if Rozenstruik can survive the early onslaught – and extend the bout for any time – he could have a chance to finish a tiring opponent. Still, his defensive jiu-jitsu is far less developed than a fighter like Shamil Abudrakihmov, who survived half a fight with Almeida on top.
We still don't know much about Almeida as a fighter, mainly whether his striking or cardio can hold up over 15 minutes. This isn't necessarily the type of matchup to test those potential vulnerabilities; I would expect an opponent such as Sergei Spivac or Curtis Blaydes to test him better in those areas.
Still, what we have seen from Almeida has been as impressive as the run from Khamzat Chimaev. And it would be cool to see these two prospects put together undefeated championship runs at middleweight and heavyweight, only to meet for the 205-pound strap eventually.
We're still far from that happening, but I expect Almeida to pass Saturday's test relatively easily.
The problematic question is figuring out how to bet this fight correctly.
Rozenstruik vs. Almeida Pick
I projected Jailton Almeida as a -518 favorite (83.8% implied odds) in this matchup, and I see slight value concerning his moneyline, which you can use as a parlay piece to -500.
I also expect this bout to end inside the distance 94% of the time (-1622 implied odds), and I see slight value concerning both the "under 1.5 rounds" and "ends inside the distance" props.
Use the under 1.5 rounds as a parlay piece (up to -220); given Almeida's pace and the binary nature of this stylistic matchup, it's unlikely that this fight will last very long. Either Almeida lands a takedown and finishes the fight, and Rozenstruik clips him on the way in, or you have the same situation to start Round 2 with one – or both fighters – potentially exhausted by that point.
If Rozenstruik does get taken down in the first minute – with four minutes for Almeida to work on top – I think it is all but over, and Almeida rarely wastes time getting his fights to the ground. Bet Almeida to win in Round 1 (+100 at Caesars) down to -110.
The Picks:
- Jailton Almeida wins in Round 1 (+100, 0.25u at Caesars)
- Parlay (-120, 0.5u at Caesars): Almeida-Rozenstruik under 1.5 rounds (-210) & Carlos Ulberg (-420)
