Welcome to the latest edition of MMA Prop Squad, in which we offer an array of UFC Charlotte prop bets with oversized odds for Saturday's event.
Each Prop Squad installment features a handful of picks from our squad of prop-betting enthusiasts, who are +31 units, +18.8% ROI to date.
This week marks the return of squad members Billy Ward, Tony Sartori, Dan Tom and Dann Stupp.
Check out their picks for Saturday's event, which airs on ESPN (noon ET) and ABC (3 p.m. ET) from Spectrum Center in Charlotte, below.
As with all betting endeavors, always wager within your means. That guidance is especially important when dealing with prop bets. Although the props often offer tantalizing odds, they also cash far less frequently than standard bet types. And be sure to shop around for the best price since prop odds can vary substantially depending on the sportsbook.
Billy Ward: Tainara Lisboa in Round 1 (+750)
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 11:55 a.m. ET
The opening bout of UFC on ABC 4 features the UFC debut of Tainara Lisboa, who faces a veteran of the promotion in Jessica Rose-Clark.
While Lisboa is an unfamiliar name to MMA fans, she’s had a long career in muay Thai and kickboxing. She’s claimed multiple world championships and once fought former UFC champion Valentina Shevchenko to a decision loss.
Rose-Clark certainly has more MMA experience, but at 4-4 in the UFC, she’s far from a world-beater. She’s also primarily a striker, with two consecutive losses via submission – including a nasty broken arm in her last fight.
This strikes me as a fight where we’ll know right away how Lisboa’s skills translate, and she should have a massive advantage if she’s able to keep the fight standing. She’s finished all five of her professional wins, including three in the first round.
Betting on a women’s fight to end early isn’t usually a wise move, but this is an extremely tempting line on Lisboa. With one clearly dominant skill in her tool bag, it shouldn’t take her long to put away Rose-Clark on the feet.
You could also bet that this fight won’t start Round 2 at +410 odds. That would also qualify for the Prop Squad based on the long odds while hedging against Rose-Clark picking up an early finish on the ground.
Pick: Tainara Lisboa to win in Round 1 (+750) |
Tony Sartori: Cody Stamann by Finish (+600)
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 1:25 p.m. ET
On the preliminary card, we have a catchweight bout between Cody Stamann and Douglas Silva de Andrade. This fight will be contested at 140 pounds, an arrangement that was agreed upon during each of their camps as both guys thought the cut to 136 would not be necessary.
Both guys coming in heavy is good for betting on this fight to end inside the distance. Specifically, we are going to target Stamann to get Silva de Andrade out of there before the final bell.
Stamann's 7-4-1 record in the UFC is not indicative of how talented he is in the octagon. The story of Stamann's UFC journey is "good, but not good enough," beating the guys he is supposed to but failing to get the job done against the top dogs.
His draw came against Song Yadong, the No. 8 contender in the bantamweight division. Meanwhile, his four losses came against Aljamain Sterling (current champion), Merab Dvalishvili (No. 1 contender), Said Nurmagomedov and Jimmie Rivera.
With that said, Stamman is more than capable of getting mid-level fighters out of the octagon early, evidenced by his recent knockout victory over Eddie Wineland. On the other hand, two of Silva de Andrade's five losses in the UFC have come inside the distance.
While Stamman carries some decent power, he may also elect to bring this fight to the mat against Silva de Andrade and his four-inch reach advantage. Regardless of whether this turns into a boxing match, a grappling exchange or a mixture of both, I like Stamann at a bigger weight to get his opponent out of there early.
Pick: Cody Stamann by KO/TKO or submission (+600) |
Dan Tom: Karl Williams in Round 2 (+500), Round 3 (+900)
Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Protect Ya' Neck podcast
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 1:55 p.m. ET
This week, I decided to go back to the well with some round props, targeting a preliminary bout between Chase Sherman (+310) and Karl Williams (-400).
Despite the spread on the moneyline being wide for a heavyweight MMA fight, I believe that there are ways to play the favorite in Williams without having to expose your bankroll too heavily.
Although Sherman carries more UFC experience, we've seen enough of the D'Iberville native to know that he tends to drop off fairly significantly after the first round.
Williams may have made some pacing errors in his last fight, but the former wrestler still showed the ability to dog out takedowns and work for a solid 15 minutes.
Add in the fact that Sherman has traditionally struggled with competent wrestlers, and I can't help but sprinkle small on Williams to help show him the door. I'll split my Prop Squad pick this week and bet on Williams to win in Round 2 and Round 3, with +500 and +900 odds, respectively.
Picks: Karl Williams in Round 2 (+500), Round 3 (+900) |
Dann Stupp: Daniel Rodriguez by Stoppage (+600)
Senior Editor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 3:25 p.m. ET
Daniel Rodriguez is one of my favorite plays at UFC Charlotte, largely because we're getting some pretty fat odds for him to beat the hype but imperfect prospect Ian Garry.
If you like him to win this fight, taking Rodriguez (+250) straight up on the moneyline is a perfectly fine play. Rodriguez's level of competition in the UFC has far outpaced Garry's (whose UFC opponents are a combined 6-11), and we even saw Garry get dropped in his most recent bout before rallying to keep his perfect record intact.
In fact, as my colleague Billy Ward recently wrote, Garry has faced some level of adversity in each of his UFC bouts.
However, if Garry gets dropped again, I'm not sure he's getting back up against Rodriguez, who packs a ton of power that's helped lead him to 12 stoppages in 17 career wins. Rodriguez is also willing to press forward to eat a punch to land a few of his own. That strategy won't always work as Father Time slowly chips away at the granite chin, but for now, Rodriguez has never been stopped with strikes.
This bout is likely to become a firefight. Rodriguez has the output to match Garry, and "D-Rod" also is a bit better at blocking the blows coming his way.
With an experience edge, possibly more output, possibly some grappling side, as well as the type of power to wobble if not fully knock out an opponent, Rodriguez on the moneyline and Rodriguez inside the distance are both live. Gimme the latter, which also covers us in case of a Rodriguez submission, for my Prop Squad pick this week.
The Pick: Daniel Rodriguez to win by finish (+600 at BetRivers)
