Check out the UFC Contender Series Week 3 odds with my picks and predictions for each bout on tonight's fight card.
Season 8 Episode 3 of Dana White's Contender Series streams tonight on ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET (5 p.m. PT) from the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas. New Contender Series events take place every Tuesday night through mid-October.
As with all UFC Contender Series events, some of the DWCS winners – and even some of the losers – could earn an official UFC contract at tonight's event. In fact, the Contender Series has become the UFC's primary feeder system for new talent. So, when we're betting on the Contender Series, we're betting on tomorrow's UFC stars.
UFC President Dana White is usually cageside for each show, and after each event, the boss determines which fighters have earned a UFC contract.
As a reminder, some sportsbooks can be slow to open Contender Series odds and props, though nearly every major sportsbook eventually does post them. And don't forget that you can track your Contender Series bets in the Action App!
Odds as of Tuesday and via DraftKings. Bet on Contender Series Week 3 with our DraftKings promo code.
Contender Series Week 3 Odds & Best Bets
Flyweights: Nick Piccininni (-380) vs. Jack Duffy (+300)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:05 p.m. ET
Jack Duffy has been scheduled for three different opponents since getting the offer to compete on the Contenders Series. Originally he was set to face Contender Series returnee Mitch Raposo, but Raposo was signed as a last-minute replacement for UFC 302 in June. Then it was Jose Ochoa, who withdrew for undisclosed reasons.
Unfortunately for Duff, new opponent Nick Piccininni might be the toughest opponent of the bunch. He's a four-time Big 12 champion wrestler out of Division I powerhouse Oklahoma State with a 112-17 collegiate record.
He's 6-0 as a pro-MMA fighter with five finishes (all submissions). Originally training at American Kickboxing Academy with fellow Oklahoma State standout Daniel Cormier, he now calls Fortis MMA home. Both camps are among the sport's best, and he'll certainly be well prepared for the moment.
While his wins have all come via submission, he has a well-developed top game for MMA. He looks to do damage first, softening up his opponents for submission attempts. He's been built up solidly as well with a five-round fight against a striker in his last appearance, which followed a matchup against a submission specialist.
Piccininni passed both tests with flying colors, working out of some tricky submissions in the earlier fight and staying safe on the feet in the latter. His striking is a bit sloppy, though, and he's been clipped at times while striking.
Still, the takedown comes nearly at will when he wants it, so I'm not especially worried about him taking damage.
Duffy is no slouch though. The Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt is 7-0 with six finishes of his own. Training out of Team Alpha Male, he'll have plenty of experience dealing with athletic wrestlers.
It's hard to get much of a read on Duffy's striking other than to say that it's got some holes. The vast majority of his rounds start with some kind of kick from range, which Duffy uses to transition to a takedown. The only extended striking sequence in his recent fights saw Duffy dropped multiple times with overhand punches, though it was hard to tell if he was truly rocked or just off-balance.
Either way, it's not a good look. To his credit, he was eventually able to find the takedown and dominate from there, but those takedowns won't be easy to come by against Piccinninni.
Prediction: Nick Piccininni defeats Jack Duffy by KO
The Bet: Nick Piccininni by KO/TKO/DQ (+800 at BetRivers)
Bantamweights: Malcolm Wellmaker (-270) vs. Adam Bramhald (+220)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:25 p.m. ET
Malcolm Wellmaker has been a professional for only two years, but in that time, he's 7-0 with a majority-decision win over former DWCS competitor Taylor Moore. He's picked up five finishes, though he has both a split and a majority decision win on his record.
He's a moderate favorite against England's Adam Bramhald, the more experienced fighter at 13-2. Bramhald has been a pro since 2015 and is riding an 11-fight winning streak since starting his career 2-2.
Wellmaker is a rangy, patient striker who operates out of an upright stance. It's easy to see how he's been involved in a couple of close decisions; his low output makes it hard to definitively win rounds without dropping or finishing his opponents.
However, he's done that at a fairly high clip with three knockout victories. He also has strong defensive grappling, and he's been able to defend the majority of the takedowns he's faced and/or work back to his feet. He's fought a relatively soft strength of schedule to this point in his career with less-than-definitive wins against two of the three opponents he's fought with winning records.
That's not the case for Bramhald, who, at least in his recent fights, has fought stiff competition. He has a similar rangy style as Wellmaker, though with more volume and less power. Both of his career losses have come on the ground, which is less of a concern against a fellow striker.
Bramhald leaves a bit to be desired defensively, though he's been able to push through the big shots he's taken so far. I'm expecting a competitive striking fight here, which makes it hard for Wellmaker to cover his price tag.
Look for "decision only" lines on Bramhald close to fight time, but if those aren't available I'll take his moneyline at +XXX.
Prediction: Adam Bramhald defeats Malcolm Wellmaker by decision
The Bet: Bramhald Bramhald (+220 at DraftKings)
Middleweights: Marco Tulio (-550) vs. Matthieu Duclos (+410)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:55 p.m. ET
The widest betting lines on this week's card belong to the middleweights with Brazil's Marco Tulio Silva approaching 6-to-1 odds.
The Chute Boxe product is making his second trip to the Contender Series after picking up a relatively dominant but fairly boring decision victory in 2023. Following that bout, he returned to LFA, where he picked up a second-round knockout victory.
Tulio is primarily a grappler, as he showed both in his initial Contender Series appearance and his return to the LFA. However, he opened up a bit more with the striking in the LFA matchup, throwing an early flying knee (among other strikes) before going to the grappling.
From there, he was also more aggressive with the ground and pound, wearing down his opponent with strikes from a variety of positions before ultimately finding a standing knockout.
Matthieu Duclos is a rangy French kickboxer with five knockout wins on his 6-2 record. He's faced – and defended – desperate takedown attempts in all of the fights I've seen as his overmatched opponents have no interest in striking with him.
He's fought relatively lower-level competition, though, primarily fighting in Western Europe, where there's less of a strong wrestling/grappling culture. That grappling defense will be much more heavily tasked against the Brazilian Tulio.
I also expect Tulio to be more aggressive this time around, knowing he likely needs a finish in order to earn a contract. We should be able to cut the juice from his moneyline all the way down to -150 or so by playing him by knockout. Those prop markets should open before fight time, and based on offshore odds, I think -150 will be available.
Tulio seems to prioritize damage on the ground over submission attempts, making that a better way to play it than his heavily juiced finish ("by KO or submission") line.
Prediction: Marco Tulio defeats Matthieu Duclos via ground and pound
The Bet: Marco Tulio KO/TKO (look for -150)
Featherweights: Michael Aswell (-110) vs. Bogdan Grad (-110)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:25 p.m. ET
Bogdan Grad is also making a return trip to the Apex Center after suffering a first-round knockout loss to Tom Nolan in the Contender Series a year ago. Nolan has gone 2-1 in the UFC since then and has/had plenty of hype around him as a prospect, which paints the loss for Grad in a somewhat better light in hindsight.
Since then, he has two finishes in two fights: a first-round guillotine and a second-round flying knee. That confirms what I already thought about Grad, noting his stifling top pressure and occasional proclivity to get too wild on the feet.
Michael Aswell is 9-1 at just 23 years old, picking up the Fury FC featherweight championship in his last appearance in April. He has five knockouts among those nine wins, and he needed just over a minute to pick up the Fury title.
"The Texas Kid" is all action and comes forward with strikes until he finds a finish. He's not especially technical, but he makes up for it with volume and aggression. His lone career loss was a reasonably close decision, in which he was controlled on the ground for most of the first round which limited that output later on.
I've been burned before betting on Grad to grapple his way to a victory, but I'm going back to it. That route will likely be available for him here again, should he choose to use it.
Even if Grad doesn't, he has a bit more speed and explosiveness on the feet, so he wouldn't be drawing dead in a pure striking matchup. That's enough for me at a slight underdog price
Prediction: Bogdan Grad defeats Michael Aswell by decision
The Bet: Bogdan Grad (-102 at FanDuel)
Middleweights: Liam Anderson (-225) vs. Andrey Pulyaev (+185)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:55 p.m. ET
We close the show with another middleweight bout – Dana White never thinks he has enough middleweights – as American Liam Anderson takes on Russia's Andrey Pulyaev.
Anderson is a rangy 6-foot-3 grappler with a 6-2 record. He's finished all six of his pro wins, four by submission. The 10th Planet BJJ brown belt has an ideal style for his body type, using kicks and jabs to maintain range, while the threat of his grappling deters shorter opponents from closing the distance too aggressively.
His submission game also enables him to throw kicks with impunity. He knows that even if his opponents catch the kick, they're unlikely to take him down. However, he's not a great striker in a vacuum. He struggled on the feet against the rare taller opponent in Jay Manning, who was out-striking Anderson throughout their bout.
Anderson was denied on plenty of takedown attempts before finally hitting a footsweep in that fight, and his wrestling seems to be fairly lacking in general. At times, he even resorted to playing possum ala Charles Oliveira in response to his opponent's strikes, trying to bait Manning into following him to the ground.
Pulyaev is a bit of a black box with very little full fight tape available on him. However, he's a 6-foot-4 Russian with seven finishes in his eight wins, the vast majority of those coming on the ground.
While he crushed plenty of cans in the early part of his career, his recent wins have come against fighters with winning records or plenty of experience (or both), which is another encouraging sign.
He's also a master of sport in a Japanese hybrid martial art known as "Kudo," which appears to be fairly similar to Sambo in that it blends striking and grappling techniques.
The one full fight I was able to find featured Pulyaev looking relatively slow on the feet, but dominant once the fight hit the canvas. He was also a bit more effective with his takedowns than Anderson.
In a fight that might be decided by who gets top position first, that could be all the difference. It's not a comfortable pick due to the lack of information on Pulyaev, but at +165 at BetMGM it doesn't need to be.
I'm picking and betting Pulyaev here, but I'm not expecting either man to get a contract in what should be a fairly low-paced affair.
Prediction: Andrey Pulyaev defeats Liam Anderson by decision
The Bet: Andrey Pulyaev (+190 at DraftKings)
