Check out the latest Contender Series Week 5 odds with my picks and predictions for each bout on the Tuesday, September 10 fight card.
Season 8 Episode 5 of Contender Series streams on ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET (5 p.m. PT) from the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas. New Contender Series events take place every Tuesday night through mid-October.
As with all UFC Contender Series events, some of the DWCS winners – and even some of the losers – could earn an official UFC contract. In fact, the Contender Series has become the UFC's primary feeder system for new talent.
UFC President Dana White is usually cageside for each show, and after each event, the UFC boss will determine which fighters have earned a contract.
As a reminder, some sportsbooks can be slow to open Contender Series odds and betting markets, though nearly every major sportsbook eventually does post them. And don't forget that you can track your Contender Series bets in the Action App.
Contender Series Week 5 odds as of Tuesday and via DraftKings. Bet on DWCS Week 5 with our DraftKings promo code.
Contender Series Week 5 Odds & Best Bets
Women's Flyweight: Corinne Laframboise (-125) vs. Nicolle Caliari (-105)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:05 p.m. ET
Corrine Laframboise is a French-Canadian flyweight who was originally booked to fight on last year's edition of the Contender Series. That one didn't happen because pre-fight medicals revealed she was roughly three months pregnant.
If you're doing that math at home, that means that Laframboise gave birth roughly six months ago, making this a pretty quick turnaround – though she had no trouble making weight, for what that's worth.
The Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt is the UAE Warriors flyweight champion, and she previously fought in Quebec-based TKO. She has an 8-4 overall pro record with the two most recent losses coming to future UFC competitors Jamie-Lynn Horth and Manon Fiorot.
It's hard to find many recent clips of Laframboise fighting (and recent is relative here, since she's been off 2.5 years at this point). She seems to be a fairly straightforward grappler, preferring to pick up takedowns from the clinch.
She also is more than willing to give up positions while hunting submissions, which (as I often note here) is a strategy that falls apart against higher-level competition. She's also not great at scoring takedowns from distance, which puts her in danger against strikers.
It's the striking that worries me against Caliari. The Brazilian is 7-2 with five knockouts, and her losses also came against future UFC competitors.
Caliari has a muay Thai base with a leg-kick-based game and solid hands. She was out-grappled by Kay Hansen in her most recent loss but did plenty of damage standing, and she escaped some dangerous positions before eventually submitting in Round 3.
Since then, she's picked up three straight finishes and earned a purple belt in BJJ. At just 27, she's probably trending in the opposite direction of the 35-year-old Laframboise.
With the recent pregnancy, age and striking deficits, there's a lot for Laframboise to overcome here. I'll take Caliari at roughly a pick'em price.
Prediction: Nicolle Caliari defeats Corinne Laframboise by TKO
The Bet: Nicole Caliari (-112 at FanDuel)
Men's Bantamweight: Otar Tanzilov (-238) vs. Josias Musasa (+180)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:25 p.m. ET
Fight No. 2 is setting up to be a banger. Otar Tanzilov and Josias Musasa have 16 professional fights between them with zero losses and 14 knockout wins.
Both have built those records in lower-level regional promotions, so even their wins against opponents with solid records are somewhat questionable. Tanzilov has fought in slightly higher-level shows (Octagon and UAE Warriors), but only barely.
The Georgian Tanzilov is extremely long for the 135-pound division, standing 5-foot-11 with a 77-inch reach. Unsurprisingly, he prefers to fight from the outside, where he can set up powerful shots at range.
Tanzilov's defense is somewhat limited; fighters coming forward aggressively have been able to hurt him at times. He'll throw in the occasional takedown to disrupt aggressive opponents' timing, but he clearly does his best work on the feet.
I watched the last three fights for Musasa, which took me less than five minutes. He's a hyper-athletic brawler who will throw a leg kick or two before bombing wild hooks while marching forward.
He's got plenty of power based on how quickly his opponents crumple when they get hit, though his technique is a bit lacking.
Tanzilov should get the better of most exchanges here, but all it takes is one for Musasa to win the fight. I like the underdog here, but he's only got one path to victory, and that's a knockout.
I'm taking Musasa to pick up another KO win at +250, though for a safer option, the Under 1.5 rounds at -125 or "fight ends via knockout" are also solid bets. If Musasa can't get it done early, Tanzilov should find a finish of his own fairly quickly.
Prediction: Josias Musasa defeats Otar Tanzilov via TKO
The Bet: Josias Musasa via KO (+250 at Betway)
Men's Middleweight: Yousri Belgaroui (-800) vs. Taiga Iwasaki (+550)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:25 p.m. ET
Yousri Belgaroui is getting a second crack at the Contender Series after falling short last year to Marco Tulio. The pedigree of Belgaroui probably helps his cause: He's a former Glory kickboxing title challenger who's now being coached in MMA by former champion Glover Teixeira.
You might recognize that as Alex Pereira's backstory, who's now a teammate of Belgaroui. In fact, the man Belgaroui unsuccessfully challenged (twice) for the Glory title was "Poatan" himself, and he took Israel Adesanya to a split decision in kickboxing while holding a non-title win over Pereira.
Like Pereira (and briefly Adesanya), Belgaroui has competed at both middleweight and light heavyweight, and he's massive for the former division. At 6-foot-5 with a 79-inch reach, he has the perfect build to match his Dutch kickboxing skills.
The other side of that coin is the grappling, where his frame isn't doing him any favors. I've been impressed by the takedown defense from Belgaroui in all of the fights I've seen. When opponents do get him to the canvas, though, he ends up fairly stuck. His long limbs make it that much more difficult to work back to his feet, and he's not well-versed in "tall guy grappling."
The UFC seems to want to give him an easier (on paper) path to the promotion this time around, matching him up with Taiga Iwasaki. Iwaski is a Kudo champion (effectively Japanese MMA with headgear and gis) who's 9-1 as a pro MMA fighter.
His one loss came via submission to former Bellator champion and elite grappler Rafael Lovato Jr., but he's fought just one other opponent with a winning record.
Iwasaki showed decent grappling in that fight, often taking bad shots at range but sorting out takedowns once he got to the fence. His striking wasn't especially impressive even against lower-level competition, though.
While I really want to take a sprinkle on the underdog grappler after hitting a big 'dog last week, I'm not willing to go there this time – at least at current lines. Iwasaki is giving up too much size and athleticism in this matchup, and I don't trust his wrestling to force the issue.
I'm passing on this one unless the line continues to blow up on the underdog since we aren't getting what I'd consider playable odds on Belgaroui (currently -200) to pick up a knockout.
Prediction: Yousri Belgaroui defeats Taiga Iwaski by TKO
The Bet: Pass (would take Iwasaki at +600 or better)
Men's Lightweight: Quemuel Ottoni (+164) vs. Kody Steele (-185)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:25 p.m. ET
Kody Steele has been on my radar for a long time. The BJJ black belt trains out of Checkmat BJJ in Austin, Texas, alongside well-known BJJ competitors the Tackett brothers.
Steele won combat jiu-jitsu (BJJ matches with open-hand strikes allowed on the ground) worlds in 2019 and has competed in grappling events against much larger UFC fighters Phil Rowe (whom he beat) and Gregory Rodrigues (loss via decision).
His grappling style is perfectly suited to MMA as one of the new breed of BJJ competitors with a heavy focus on no-gi competition, where top control and guard passing are heavily emphasized.
Since transitioning to MMA, Steele has built a 6-0 record featuring four finishes, all under the Fury FC banner. While striking isn't his A-game, he's more comfortable on his feet than you would expect, with a solid high guard, quick hands and powerful leg kicks. Of course, all of that is easier when your opponent is focused on defending takedowns.
My biggest (only?) knock on Steele's game is the lag he shows when he switches between striking and grappling. There's a visible hesitation between his strikes and takedown attempts, though he has the wrestling background to finish the takedowns even with a slight tell.
Quemel Ottoni is best known for submitting Alex Pereira in Poatan's MMA debut back in 2015 – before the UFC champ committed full-time to MMA. A pro for a decade, the 31-year-old Ottoni is 12-3 in that time span with two losses via submission.
He also hasn't fought in nearly two-and-a-half years and is now two weight classes lighter than when he fought Pereira. He's mainly a striker with a brawling style that gives him a puncher's chance – and Steele plenty of takedown openings.
The public has jumped on Ottoni since this market opened (and everyone figured out he beat Pereira a decade ago), so I'll be waiting until close to fight time to bet on Steele.
Prediction: Kody Steele defeats Quemel Ottoni via submission
The Bet: Kody Steele (-175 at Caesars Sportsbook)
Men's Light Heavyweight: Navajo Stirling (-265) vs. Phillip Latu (+215)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:55 p.m. ET
Two more converted kickboxers round out Week 5 of the Contender Series, and while neither of them has fought Alex Pereira, Navajo Stirling trains with Israel Adesanya at City Kickboxing.
The 26-year-old Kiwi is a massive light heavyweight, standing 6-foot-4 with a 6-foot-10 reach that's within two inches of the UFC record shared by Stefan Struve and Robelis Despaigne, who are both heavyweights.
Stirling has an extensive muay Thai and kickboxing background with the classic feint-heavy style we've come to know and love from Eugene Bareman's disciples. It works especially well for fighters with his build.
There's not a ton of readily available MMA tape on Stirling (he is just 4-0), but given his opponent's similar background, the kickboxing tape answers most of the relevant questions.
Phillip Latu is 6-1 as an MMA fighter with six knockout victories and one submission loss since switching over from kickboxing competition.
He's the more aggressive of the pair, unleashing flurries early in rounds and mixing in flashy spinning techniques. The former heavyweight is also willing to "take one to give one" at his new weight class, trading strikes on multiple occasions with less powerful opponents.
That takes a toll on the cardio, though, and he has seemed to suck wind badly late in rounds before coming out renewed in successive frames.
I expect the more polished striker, Stirling, to bring a patient approach here and let Latu wear himself down with wild swings before taking him out. A live bet makes a lot of sense here, but for the sake of a pre-fight angle, I'm taking a stab at Stirling in Round 2 and Round 3. Be sure to shop around – not all books have round props posted at the time of writing, but you may find better lines elsewhere this afternoon/evening.
Prediction: Navajo Stirling defeats Phillip Latu via TKO
The Bets: Stirling in Round 2 (+450 at DraftKings) | Stirling in Round 3 (+750 at DraftKings)
