Check out the latest Contender Series Week 7 odds with my picks and predictions for all five fights on the Tuesday, September 24, fight card.
Season 8 Episode 7 of Contender Series streams tonight on ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET (5 p.m. PT) from the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas. New Contender Series events take place every Tuesday night through mid-October.
As with all UFC Contender Series events, some of the DWCS winners – and even some of the losers – could earn an official UFC contract. In fact, the Contender Series has become the UFC's primary feeder system for new talent.
UFC President Dana White is usually cageside for each show, and after each event, the UFC boss will determine which fighters have earned a contract.
As a reminder, some sportsbooks can be slow to open Contender Series odds and betting markets, though nearly every major sportsbook eventually does post them. And don't forget that you can track your Contender Series bets in the Action App.
Contender Series 7 odds as of Tuesday afternoon and via DraftKings. Bet on DWCS Week 7 with our DraftKings promo code.
Contender Series Week 7 Odds & Best Bets
Women's Strawweight: Alexia Thainara (+110) vs. Rose Conceicao (-130)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:05 p.m. ET
I like it when we get fairly close lines on Contender Series fights since we can focus on picking winners rather than trying to figure out how to avoid paying juice and/or where to take big swings. That's how we're starting Week 7 in this meeting of Brazilian strawweights.
Rose Conceicao is 7-0 with her two most recent wins coming under the LFA banner, where she's the reigning 115-pound champion. Fighting for the LFA is certainly a data point in her favor; it's one of the premier regional MMA organizations and is a frequent supplier of talent to the UFC.
Working against her is the fact that four of her seven wins have required the judges, and she doesn't have any well-known opponents on her record (though three of her last four opponents have solid records).
Conceicao found success with her striking in her LFA title-winning performance, but her background is in wrestling. She was a Brazilian national champion in the sport, though I'm not sure how competitive female wrestling is in Brazil.
Like many converted wrestlers before her, she's a plus-athlete who throws hard on the feet, knowing she can open up with strikes and not worry about being taken down. That backfired in her last fight, when she was taken down a few times by her former kickboxer opponent. She ultimately won a close decision, though I would've scored it against her.
Alexia Thainara has competed in mostly smaller promotions, but she's fought two current UFC fighters – Bruna Brasil and Rayanne Amanda – going 1-1 in those fights. She's 10-1 with seven stoppage victories, and her only loss came to Brasil in 2019.
She's a training partner of current top-10 strawweight Amanda Ribas at the Ribas family gym, and she was originally booked to fight uber-prospect Fatima Kline tonight at Contender Series before Kline signed with the UFC instead.
Thainara seems to come from a grappling background with six submissions – plus her win over Jeanne Ruas that's listed as a TKO victory was actually a submission, as well. Her fight tape has plenty of highlight-reel takedowns, and she appears to be the better overall grappler than Conceicao.
This line has already moved a bit after Thainara opened around +110, and I'm riding with the public action here. Thainara has more experience and a better overall game.
The best available line as I write this is -110 on DraftKings, but I'd play her moneyline down to -125.
Prediction: Alexia Thaianara defeats Rose Conceicao via submission
The Bet: Alexia Thainara -110 (DraftKings)
Featherweight: Cam Teague (+360) vs. Kevin Vallejos (-470)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:25 p.m. ET
The only blemish on Kevin Vallejos' 13-1 pro record came in his last appearance on the Contender Series, a 2023 loss to Jean Silva. That defeat has aged extraordinarily well considering Silva has won three straight by finish in the UFC while Vallejos took him to a decision.
Vallejos is still just 22, giving him a rare mix of experience and youth. He has twice as many fights as Cam Teague despite being about four years younger. As I noted in his last appearance, Vallejos has a very well-rounded game. He didn't get to show his grappling against Silva, but he held his own on the feet and took the first round from the future UFC standout.
I did note in that breakdown that his cardio is a bit of an issue, which he showed (somewhat) against Silva by being unable to keep pace with Silva down the stretch.
It's the first shot at earning a contract for Teague, who has a perfect 7-0 record. He's coming off a knockout win over UFC vet Austin Lingo, though that was his first opponent who had more than two pro wins.
Teague looked a bit wild in that fight, missing on some heavy shots early on and getting tagged in return. His chin held up against Lingo, but he played a dangerous game throughout that fight.
His brawling style ultimately proved too much for Lingo, as it has for his past opponents on the regional scene. However, it's unlikely to "play up" to the UFC level as more experienced and skilled fighters avoid being sucked into a wild fight with Teague.
Count Vallejos among those. Vallejos should have the technical edge in all aspects of this one. Rather than pay the juice, I'll be taking his inside the distance line of +120 for half a unit with quarter-unit sprinkles on his Round 2 and Round 3 lines of +540 and +850. (You might find even better lines as more sportsbooks open Contender Series prop markets.)
Prediction: Kevin Vallejos defeats Cam Teague by knockout
The Bets: Vallejos by finish +120 (BetRivers) | Vallejos in Round 2 +540 (BetRivers) | Vallejos in Round 3 +850 (BetRivers)
Light Heavyweight: Kevin Christian (-130) vs. Francesco Mazzeo (+110)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:55 p.m. ET
Francesco Mazzeo comes to the Contender Series at just 4-0 with the last three of those fights coming under the Cage Warriors banner.
The Italian prospect has fought primarily at middleweight with his only prior light heavyweight fight coming after a late-replacement opponent forced the move up a weight class.
It's also been a strange path to his undefeated record. He was one win via DQ in a very close fight due to his opponent landing a knee to he head while Mazzeo was grounded. Another win came on a freak arm injury to his opponent, who posted awkwardly while attempting to roll Mazzeo through on a takedown.
Mazzeo followed that up with a 37-second knockout win over a 3-2 fighter whose last win was in 2018. All of which makes it hard to get a read on his true abilities (his debut also took less than a minute).
I can say he's powerful and athletic, and he looked fairly big for 185 pounds. That size won't be there at 205 – especially against a 6-foot-7 opponent – but he does have some physical tools working for him.
The towering Kevin Christian is far more experienced at 8-2, though he's also never seen a judges' decision. His two career losses were back in 2016, though he also had a five-year gap from competition between 2019 and early this year.
That makes looking at any of his earlier results – at weight classes as low as lightweight, no less – fairly meaningless. At least the increase in weight is somewhat logical with the time off, though I've never heard of a 6-foot-7 lightweight before.
Christian holds a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, and he landed two takedowns in the first couple minutes of his LFA fight. Landing them is a good sign, but allowing his opponent to get back up both times is less than ideal.
Christian's not afraid to plant his feet and brawl, and he landed some good shots before getting clipped. I'm not sure if he was truly hurt or just doing the Charles Oliveira/playing-possum move, but he got the worst of the exchange before inviting his opponent into his guard. However, he found a finish early in the second round by winging big punches from the outside.
I don't love that against the wild Mazzeo, with the speed and power edges going to the Italian. Christian's length makes him a somewhat tricky puzzle to solve, but he doesn't use straight punches especially well or move his feet.
I find myself wanting to bet against both fighters here, which is obviously not an option. The Under 1.5 rounds is too juicy (-198) for my taste as well.
Rather than risk much on this one, I'll take a sprinkle at the more explosive Mazzeo to win in the first round at +230 for a half unit. Coming back live on Christian if that doesn't happen – and we get a better price – also makes sense.
Prediction: Francesco Mazzeo defeats Kevin Christian by KO
The Bet: Francesco Mazzeo in Round 1 +230 (BetRivers)
Welterweight: Daniel Frunza (+164) vs. Vadym Kutsyi (-198)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:25 p.m. ET
Vadym Kutsyi of Belarus comes into this fight as a moderate favorite with a 17-1 record but no fights in the last 21 months. When he was last seen, he picked up an impressive first-round knockout win over a 22-6 opponent in the Brave FC promotion to earn his 12th stoppage victory.
Striking is the Plan A for Kutsyi, who has a clean, Thai-inspired style. What I mean by that is Kutsyi prefers to set up one- or two-strike exchanges before creating distance, resetting, and doing it over again. He also has brutal leg kicks with a mastery of the angles necessary to land them effectively and limit his opponents' checks.
That can be extremely effective given his physical tools when he's given the time and space to do so, but he suffers a bit against aggressive opponents who keep the pressure on by counterstriking and staying on the gas.
While he seems somewhat reluctant to use it, I've been impressed by the grappling from Kutsyi. He countered multiple takedowns in his fight at Brave 51 into dominant positions of his own, and generally got the better of grappling exchanges despite his opponent initiating them each time.
The Moldovan-born Daniel Frunza has traveled the globe in search of training, first setting up shop in Italy before moving to Chile to continue his MMA journey. The move to South America landed him in the LFA, where he's 2-0 as part of an 8-2 overall record.
Seven of Frunza's wins are knockouts, including all four on his current four-fight winning streak. He's had a tough road, having never fought a fighter with a losing record and taking on a 7-7 opponent in his debut (a submission loss). It's notable that both of his career losses came via submission, especially against a fighter with sneaky grappling upside in Kutsyi.
Frunza's also a striker with constant forward pressure interrupted only by his opponent circling away or grappling. He's fairly patient with his strikes, but the constant taking of space is annoying at best and disorienting at worst for fighters forced to deal with it.
Of course, it also leaves him a bit exposed defensively, but he largely does a good job holding his hands high and moving his head. It also creates takedown opportunities, but he has solid getups and didn't take much damage when he was grounded in the fights I saw.
The striking should be reasonably close here with Frunza controlling the fight with volume while Kutsyi has the bigger single moments. Kutsyi has a grappling edge on paper – but I'm not confident he'll use it.
Therefore, I'd rather take the value on Frunza than bet on Kutsyi to change his tendency and become a grappler. It's a bit risky, but that's why we're getting an underdog price.
Prediction: Daniel Frunza defeats Vadym Kutsyi via decision
The Bet: Daniel Frunza +165 (BetMGM)
Heavyweight: Danylo Voievodkin (+550) vs. Bailey Schoenfelder (-800)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:55 p.m. ET
We end with a heavyweight fight that oddsmakers view more as a coming-out party than a tryout. Bailey Schoenfelder is the heaviest favorite on the slate by a wide margin with a -800 line on DraftKings.
Schoenfelder's 5-0 with five knockouts, but he's fought just one fighter with a winning record. That was former Contender Series competitor Greg Velaso, who suffered a first-round submission loss in the 2023 season.
The former Division I linebacker and high school state champion wrestler is a small heavyweight, weighing in at 230 pounds or lighter in all of his pro bouts. As you'd expect with his background, he's a much better athlete than the bulk of UFC heavyweights, though he's also fairly raw from a skills perspective.
That's pretty much the inverse of the scouting report on Danylo Voievodkin, who has a "man on the street" build but holds Ukrainian championships in both sambo and Kyokushin karate to go with his 6-0 pro MMA record.
It's hard to find tape on him with the bulk of his fights coming for something called "Kratos Cup." It's also easy to poke holes in his quality of competition with his last two opponents holding a combined 13-52 record – though, to be fair, one of them was 1-0.
Still, I'm not sure anybody other than Bo Nickal deserves to be -800 on a DWCS card, so let's take a shot on hitting another big underdog. The official pick is Schoenfelder, but the bet is on Voievodkin.
Prediction: Bailey Schoenfelder defeats Danylo Voievodkin via knockout
The Bet: Danylo Voievodkin +550 (DraftKings)
