Rose Namajunas vs. Tracy Cortez Odds
Here's the latest on the Rose Namajunas vs. Tracy Cortez odds for UFC Denver on Saturday, July 13, with our expert pick and prediction.
On Saturday the UFC will return to Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado, for an important main event in the women's 125-pound flyweight division between No. 6-ranked contender "Thug" Rose Namajunas and No. 11 Tracy Cortez.
Cortez is undefeated under the promotional banner (6-0, including her contract-earning win on Contender Series), but she is taking the first main event and five-round fight of her career as a short-notice replacement for Maycee Barber – and she's doing so at elevation.
Namajunas – who trains in Colorado – is a two-time former 115-pound strawweight champion with plenty of five-round experience; Saturday will mark her ninth career five-round fight, and she has seen the championship rounds on five occasions.
Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC Denver main event and utilize those factors to bet on Namajunas and Cortez, who should make their cage walks at approximately 12:25 a.m. ET on early Sunday morning (9:25 p.m. PT on Saturday night) on ESPN and ESPN+.
Here's my Namajunas vs. Cortez pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Namajunas | Cortez | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 13-6 | 11-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 14:27 | 15:00 |
| Height | 5'5" | 5'5" |
| Weight (pounds) | 124.75 lbs. | 126 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 65" | 65" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 6/29/1992 | 12/10/1993 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.69 | 4.11 |
| SS Accuracy | 41% | 53% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.51 | 2.79 |
| SS Defense | 63% | 60% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.38 | 2.33 |
| TD Acc | 47% | 46% |
| TD Def | 59% | 75% |
| Submission Avg | 0.5 | 0.3 |
I typically favor fighters who have gone five rounds against those attempting to do so for the first time, especially in a fight so heavily implied to reach a decision, which is -240 (70.6% implied) in the betting markets.
Add in the short notice booking and elevation – both of which are also working against Cortez in this fight – and the conditions and spot clearly favor Namajunas, especially down the stretch.
I had much more concern about Rose's gas tank at 115 pounds, where she showed a concerning tendency to slow in the championship rounds, but fighting at 125 and avoiding a more significant cut has seemingly deepened her cardio. She was able to stay on the gas until the final bell in a relatively high-paced main event win over Amanda Ribas:
Ribas is also a former strawweight, but she is also a more significant finishing threat than Cortez, who likely needs to land takedowns (attempts 3.5 per 15 minutes, 46% accuracy) and keep Namajunas on her back for long stretches to win clear minutes and secure a decision.
On paper, the fighters are the same size, but I view Cortez as the stronger athlete and more natural flyweight; her best chance may be to wrestle and top-time Rose from the outset.
Namajunas doesn't have the best takedown defense (59% career) and tends to get stuck on her back against bigger and stronger opponents.
Namajunas is the more technical striker and likely has the speed advantage. Still, Cortez can stay competitive on striking volume if she gets into boxing range since Rose keeps her rounds close, with minimal separation on output, whether she is favored or not.
Cortez is the more proactive fighter, landing 6.1 strikes per minute at a distance (+0.7 differential) compared to 4.1 for Namajunas (+0.2 differential), though those stats have come against vastly different levels of competition.
Cortez may get out to an early lead – whether or not she wrestles – but I would look to live bet Namajunas against a fighter in her first main event, on short notice, fighting at elevation in her opponent's backyard.
Namajunas vs. Cortez Pick
I projected Rose Namajunas as a -193 favorite (65.8% implied odds) in this matchup, and I don't see value concerning either side of the moneyline pre-fight.
However, I would look to live bet Namajunas anytime after Round 1 since I'm anticipating that Cortez may start fast but fade in the championship rounds.
I expect the fight to reach a decision 75% of the time (-300 implied) and would consider betting the over or the fight to reach a decision (listed -240). I also show correlated value on Namajunas to win by decision (projected +103, listed +115).
Given the elevation factor – and the lack of five-round experience for Cortez – I'd lay slightly more juice on Namajunas to win in Rounds 4, 5, or by decision (-115) or play a same game parlay (SGP) with Namajunas & the Over 2.5 Rounds (-135 at DraftKings) pre-fight while waiting for a comparable live price on her moneyline.
The Picks: Same Game Parlay – Rose Namajunas and Over 2.5 Rounds (-135, 0.25u at DraftKings) | Namajunas Live Anytime after Round 1
