Check out our UFC Denver prop bets with our UFC picks and favorite long shots for Saturday, July 13.
UFC Denver takes place at Ball Arena in Colorado, and the entire event is available on ESPN and ESPN+ beginning at 7 p.m. ET (4 p.m. PT).
Each MMA Prop Squad installment features a handful of picks from our squad of prop betting enthusiasts, who have tallied +13.3 units and a +3.2% ROI per bet during two years of action.
As with all betting endeavors, always wager within your means. That guidance is especially important when dealing with prop bets. Although the props often offer tantalizing odds, they also cash far less frequently than standard bet types. And be sure to shop around for the best price since prop odds can vary substantially depending on the sportsbook.
*UFC Denver odds for matchups as of Saturday evening and via ESPN BET. Bet on the UFC with our ESPN Bet promo code!
UFC Denver Picks – MMA Prop Squad Predictions
Billy Ward: Van the Man at Flyweight
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:25 p.m. ET
One of the many young prospects in the suddenly loaded flyweight division is Josh Van. At just 22, he’s coming off his first UFC stoppage victory and now has a 3-0 record in the promotion.
Those early wins by decision have perhaps unfairly painted the picture of a point fighter. However, Van is anything but. He lands more than nine significant strikes per minute, and he finished all eight of his pre-UFC victories with six knockouts and two submissions.
More importantly, given his young age, he’s still progressing at a rapid rate. Especially in the power department. Striking power and strength in general develop much later than other attributes, and Van (-250) is still growing into his adult frame.
Not that it will be easy against Charles Johnson (+205). Johnson has made it to the final bell in all six of his defeats, which is especially impressive given that this is his ninth UFC fight in under two years.
However, he hasn’t fought a striker of Van’s caliber, and he was dropped in the first round of his win over Azat Maksun.
Given the altitude and Johnson’s excellent cardio, Van probably needs to get things done early if he’s going to cash this ticket.
For that reason, I’ll be looking to hedge my bet by coming back in on Johnson live, assuming his +200 or so prefight line swells after the first round. In both of Johnson’s last two wins, he lost the first round on all the cards before claiming the second and third frames to win the decision.
The Pick: Josh Van Win by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission (+400 at DraftKings)
Tony Sartori: Bet on Erosa's Submission Savvy
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 10:25 p.m. ET
Saturday's UFC main card features a featherweight bout between Julian Erosa (+200) and Christian Rodriguez (-245). The steam is on underdog Erosa, who opened at +225 and has since been bet down to his current price.
I agree with the steam and believe Erosa is absolutely a live 'dog in this fight. While Rodriguez is a solid prospect, I'm not sold that he is as good as -235 suggests against a seasoned veteran like Erosa.
Rodriguez fought in the 135-pound bantamweight division, posting a 10-1 record. However, he came in 2.5 pounds or more overweight in three of his final five wins at that weight class, which is a massive advantage.
After these weight-cutting issues, he moved up to 145 pounds for his latest win over Isaac Dulgarian. That fight did not go nearly as well for Rodriguez despite the controversial win.
Almost anyone who goes back to watch that fight would agree that Dulgarian won. In fact, nine of the 11 media scores also had the fight for Dulgarian, with the two abstainers ruling it a draw. Not a single media score credited Rodriguez for that win.
Dulgarian took him down seven times and accumulated north of nine minutes of control time. If Erosa has any sort of similar success, then the odds of him locking in a submission should be more probable than +1000 (9.1% implied win probability) would suggest.
Thirteen of Erosa's 29 professional victories have come by submission.
The Pick: Julian Erosa by Submission (+1000 at BetRivers)
Dan Tom: Hot Round for Bonfim
Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Protect Ya' Neck podcast
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 10:55 p.m. ET
For this week's MMA Prop Squad submission, I decided to go back to the well and target a potential "hot round" in a main-card bout between Gabriel Bonfim (-370) and Ange Loosa (+275).
Whenever I refer to the term "hot rounds," I'm typically referring to rounds in which there's serious potential for a particular party to finish.
Although Loosa has technically never been finished as a pro, he hasn't faced a finishing threat with the level of ground skills that Bonfim brings to the table.
Not only does Bonfim possess a deadly front-choke game that should mute the takedown attempts that his opponent uses for shelter, but the Brazilian's lead-hand length and kicks should also provide some serious stylistic hurdles for Loosa (something I called/we saw play out in Loosa's last fight).
Couple that with the fact that both fighters could be cautious in the first frame considering that they're coming off losses, and I believe that Round 2 is the prime round for Bonfim to pick up where Bryan Battle left off in regard to getting Loosa out of there.
Shop around, but you should be able to find +500 out there.
The Pick: Gabriel Bonfim in Round 2 (+500)
Liam Heslin: KO Finish for Bonfim vs. Loosa
Contributor at The Action Network and host of Liam Picks Fights
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 10:55 p.m. ET
My colleague Dan Tom laid out the case above for Gabriel Bonfim to win in Round 2.
Like Dan, I'm hunting for value in the Bonfim vs. Ange Loosa matchup, and I like the Bonfim side of things. However, rather than pick a side, I'm going to target a method-of-victory fight prop for this matchup.
Because I see a path to KO victory for each fighter, I'm going to bet that this bout ends by KO/TKO, which can be found north of +300 and even up to +330 if you shop around.
A few key factors are working in our favor here. For example, Bonfim's only career loss came via KO, and it was to Nicholas Dalby, who's not exactly a major KO threat in the UFC. That was his first career loss, so we still don't know exactly how durable his Bonfim's chin is.
Additionally, half of Loosa's career wins have come via knockout – and the ever-busy striker came close to two others while in the UFC (Rhys McKee and AJ Fletcher).
On top of that, we're getting a good price on this fight prop at +330 odds; DraftKings and BetMGM are offering the same bet at just +250.
(If you're looking for some additional action on this bout, I also bet Bonfim to win by KO earlier in the week. I got +700 odds for that Bonfim bet, and as of Saturday morning, you can still get +650 at BetRivers, which is worth a flier.)
The Pick: Gabriel Bonfim vs. Ange Loosa Ends by KO/TKO (+330)
Dann Stupp: 'Thug' Can Take Over Late
Senior Editor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 12:25 a.m. ET
Look, I'm going to be frank: I stole these prop bets from my colleague Clint MacLean, one of the hardest-working, most engaging and friendliest folks in the MMA betting world. He called dibs on this betting angle on Friday, and I assume he simply passed out from a week of nonstop work before he could write them up.
But man, I liked the angle so much that I'm perfectly happy to swoop and swipe his idea. Thanks, Clint!
Anyway, back to the bet(s): Folks, we're back in Denver tonight, and it can't be stated enough just how much the elevation of the Mile High City is going to sap the gas tanks of the fighters who aren't prepared for it. In fact, we've already heard from a few fighters this week who are still somehow downplaying the (literal) mountain ahead of them.
Lucky for us, one such fighter is headliner Tracy Cortez (+190), who could be sucking for breath after a round or two when she meets the Denver-based Rose Namajunas (-235).
Even at sea level, I'd heavily favor Namajunas, who's much more battle-tested on MMA's biggest stage. But in the thin air of Denver? Namajunas knows exactly how to manage her cardio. I think it could become especially effective in the late rounds, where Cortez is likely to fade.
As a result, I'm going to split my Prop Squad pick this week with a scattershot of late-round props: Namajunas in Round 3 (+1700), Round 4 (+2200) and Round 5 (+3000).
The Picks: Rose Namajunas in Round 3 (+1700) | Namajunas in Round 4 (+2200) | Namajunas in Round 5 (+3000 at Hard Rock Sportsbook)
