The UFC's road show continues, as this week they head to Des Moines, Iowa and the Wells Fargo Arena. The 12-fight card is headlined by former flyweight champion Deiveson Figueiredo looking to continue his bantamweight run, as he takes on his new division's #4 ranked fighter Cory Sandhagen. Elsewhere on the card, Bo Nickal faces the toughest test of his career against Renier de Ridder.
It all goes down at 7:00 p.m. Eastern with streaming on ESPN+.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was starting to think about why markets might be wrong rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, a betting line is a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events. These markets are usually efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA — where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA — it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to find the spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll look into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, making the line inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, later overruled fights, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights also considered.
The focus will be on fights that are reasonably likely to see the scorecards or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.M
UFC Des Moines odds as of Monday and via DraftKings. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC Kansas City Predictions & Luck Ratings
Cory Sandhagen (-485) vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (+370)
I would've expected this line to be much closer, for a variety of reasons. Figueiredo is just one spot behind Cory Sandhagen in the official rankings, and has gone 3-1 at bantamweight since moving up to 135 lbs. His only loss in the division came to #2 ranked Petr Yan — though it was a fairly one sided fight.
Still, Sandhagen saw a similar result against Yan in an unsuccessful title bid in 2021. His last two wins were over Rob Font and Marlon Vera — each of whom Figueiredo has also defeated since joining his new division. The only split decision for either man in recent memory is Sandhagen's win over Vera, whom Figueiredo defeated in a unanimous decision.
While the split decision win for Sandhagen was fairly clear and should have been unanimous, at worst that's eerily similar results against the same fighters for both men. Figueiredo is getting up there in years at 37 and deserves to be an underdog, but I don't think the line should be this wide.
Thus, I'm taking an early sprinkle at the underdog. DraftKings has the best line at +370, and I'll grab that for a quarter unit.
Verdict: Deiveson Figueiredo Undervalued
Bo Nickal (-310) vs. Reinier de Ridder (+250)
While it obviously correlates with a step up in competition, Bo Nickal seems to have been regressing a bit over the past year or so.
After picking up four straight first round victories — two each in the UFC and on the Contender Series — recent fights haven't been nearly as impressive. First, he had a tough first round against Cody Brundage (5-5 UFC) at UFC 300 before finishing him in the second. Then, he put on a tepid kickboxing match against submission specialist Paul Craig (1-5 in his last six) in November.
de Ridder presents a similar challenge as Craig, with elite grappling and submission skills. Ont op of that, de Ridder is at least a competent striker, and it's entirely possible a kickboxing match doesn't work out as easily for Nickal.
Given the name recognition of Nickal chances are this line continues to widen throughout the week. I'm interested in the underdog, but I'll be waiting until closer to fight day before taking the bet.
Verdict: Reinier de Ridder Undervalued (But Wait)
Santiago Ponzinibbio (-120) vs. Daniel Rodriguez (+100)
We're seeing plenty of early line movement in the "feature fight" at UFC Des Moines, with Ponzinibbio opening as a +110 underdog and already being pushed to -120 at DraftKings.
I'm kicking myself for not getting on that line sooner, but still think it's the correct side.
This is a perfect "Luck Ratings" fight. Daniel Rodriguez is 2-3 in his last four fights, with both wins coming via split decision (one of which was very controversial). Ponzinibbio has an identical record, but two of his losses were split decisions and he's finished both wins.
Both men are 38 so it's not as if they're trending in opposite directions. The best line at the time of writing is the -120 at DraftKings and Caesars, but don't wait for it to move even further.
Verdict: Santiago Ponzinibbio Undervalued
Miesha Tate (-135) vs. Yana Santos (+114)
Another line that's seen some line movement is the one for the fight between Yana Santos and former champion Miesha Tate. This line has towards the more recognizable name, though there's no guarantee it continues in that direction.
Both women are in the twilight of their careers, with Santos 35 years old and Tate 38. Tate is 2-2 since returning from a five year "retirement" with wins over Julia Avila and Marion Reneau, both of whom retired immediately after.
She was beaten pretty clearly against both younger fighters she fought, and I'm not sure how much she has left in the tank.
On the flip side, Santos is 1-3 over her last four, but took both Holly Holm and Karol Rosa to reasonably close decisions shortly after giving birth.
I'd make Santos a slight favorite here, so the +122 line at Caesars feels like a gift. There's a possibility we get an even better line later this week, but jumping on it now also makes sense.
Verdict: Yana Santos Undervalued
