Brandon Moreno vs. Amir Albazi Odds
| 10 p.m. ET | |
Check out the Brandon Moreno vs. Amir Albazi odds for UFC Edmonton on Saturday, November 2, with my expert UFC pick and prediction.
On Saturday, the UFC will return to Rogers Place in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada, for a 14-fight card, featuring an important main event in the flyweight division between No. 2 contender and former champion Brandon Moreno and No. 3 ranked Amir Albazi.
Albazi is undefeated in the UFC (5-0) but enters off a controversial split decision win against Kai Kara-France. That disputed win was the lone five-round test of Albazi's career and his first matchup against ranked competition in the UFC.
Moreno enters on a two-fight losing streak—a pair of split decision losses to Alexandre Pantoja and Brandon Royval, losing his belt to the former. As a two-time flyweight champion—on top of an interim title—Moreno has faced extremely stiff competition and enters his eighth consecutive main event or five-round fight on Saturday (four of the previous seven have seen the championship rounds).
Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC main event on Saturday and utilize those factors to bet on Moreno vs. Albazi, who should make their cage walks at approximately 10 p.m. ET (7 p.m. PT) on ESPN+.
Sean Zerillo's Tale of the Tape
| Moreno | Albazi | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 21-8-2 | 31-11 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 16:09 | 9:47 |
| Height | 5'7" | 6'1" |
| Weight (pounds) | 125 lbs. | 125 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 70" | 68" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 12/7/1993 | 10/27/1993 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.87 | 2.80 |
| SS Accuracy | 44% | 39% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.63 | 3.07 |
| SS Defense | 59% | 63% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.74 | 1.71 |
| TD Acc | 46% | 33% |
| TD Def | 63% | 40% |
| Submission Avg | 0.5 | 0.7 |
My colleague Billy Ward highlighted this fight as part of his luck ratings piece earlier this week – where he grabbed Moreno at -155 (60.8% implied) before the move to current odds of -175 (63.6% implied).
Despite his undefeated UFC record, Albazi should have lost his last fight to Kai Kara-France (KKF); 19 of 21 media scorecards and nearly 90% of fans scored the bout for the Kiwi kickboxer. Moreover, the fight was closer to 49-46 KKF the other way than 48-47 Albazi; ten of those 19 media scorecards had KKF winning four of the five rounds.
I expected Albazi to have more consistent grappling success in that fight, but he only landed one takedown (on nine attempts) and spent only six minutes (24% of the fight) in control positions—despite competing in the smaller APEX cage, which assists him in initiating grappling exchanges.
Otherwise, KKF out-struck Albazi 90-39 at distance, outlanding him in each round. And KKF completed two takedowns of his own (58 seconds of control).
Additionally, Albazi is returning from a lengthy layoff (17 months) following a neck injury; he was supposed to face Moreno in February.
Moreno's split losses weren't as controversial as Albazi's split win. 25 of 30 media scorecards and 80% of fans had Pantoja defeating Moreno for Flyweight gold. Subsequently, 13 of 18 media cards and 62% of fans scored his next fight for Brandon Royval.
I'm surprised to see him return in nine months. Moreno announced a temporary leave from MMA following the Royval loss. He seemed less aggressive than his typical self in that matchup and didn't pursue an optimal game plan.
Still, I think he has the advantages nearly everywhere in this matchup.
Moreno is the better pocket boxer and the far more efficient distance striker (+0.2 to -1.0 strike differential per minute). Still, I view his wrestling as much more on par with Albazi's relative to Amir's recent opponents.
Albazi isn't winning a kickboxing match. He needs to proactively grapple (attempts 2.7 takedowns per five minutes at distance, 33% accuracy) and get on top of Moreno (64% takedown defense on 1.9 attempts per five minutes at distance)—and either finish the fight by submission or dominate with extended stretches of control time.
I do expect Albazi to land takedowns in this fight—particularly early when he's fresh—but it's difficult to hold any Flyweight down for long stretches, and Moreno is capable of working back to his feet unless you can take the back and lock in a body triangle until the end of a round, like Pantoja.
Still, if Moreno proactively wrestles (attempts 1.8 takedowns per five minutes at distance, 47% accuracy), he can get to control positions on Albazi for stretches, which would create further openings in his striking and potentially tire Albazi out for the championship rounds.
The path of least resistance for Moreno is to sprawl and brawl – deny Albazi's shots, land the more damaging strikes, and play matador in the big cage (each of Albazi's past two fights took place in the smaller APEX octagon).
Still, Moreno is at his best when he presses forward against opponents, relies upon his elite durability and physicality, and uses his entire skillset.
Moreno vs. Albazi Pick
I projected Brandon Moreno as a -168 favorite (62.7% implied), and I expect the fight to go to a decision nearly 69% of the time (-220 implied). Bet the goes to decision prop up to -200 (66.7% implied).
I show a slight edge on Moreno by decision (projected +145, listed +175) in the winning method market; I'd want at least +155 to bet that prop. Alternatively, consider betting Moreno's point spread (-5.5, +120), because I show value on his decision prop but also give him more finishing equity (35% of his win condiition vs. 25% for Albazi).
If it's available for you to bet, I'd prefer a same-game parlay with Moreno and the Over 2.5 Rounds (+104 at BallyBet) at plus money. Moreno is a consensus -175 favorite, and the fight is a -400 consensus to reach the halfway point; parlaying those odds together typically equals -104.
Zerillo's Picks: Fight Goes to Decision (-180 at BallyBet) | SGP: Moreno & Over 2.5 Rounds (+104 at BallyBet)
