Rose Namajunas vs. Erin Blanchfield Odds
| Namajunas Odds | +114 |
| Blanchfield Odds | -135 |
| Over/Under | 4.5 (-280 / +110) |
| Location | Rogers Place Arena, Alberta, Canada |
| Bout Time | 11 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC Edmonton odds as of Friday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Edmonton with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Rose Namajunas vs. Erin Blanchfield odds for UFC Edmonton on Saturday, November 2, with my betting preview and breakdown.
Still somehow just 32 years old, it feels like we've already seen multiple careers from Rose Namajunas. She broke into the promotion on Season 20 of The Ultimate Fighter as a strawweight, losing the the tournament and newly created strawweight title in the finale.
She went on to claim that title for two different stints as champion, first from 2017-2019, and again for two fights in 2021.
Now, she's attempting another comeback as a flyweight, where she takes on 25-year-old prospect Erin Blanchfield. This fight is either a passing of the torch, or the next step to yet another title run from "Thug Rose." Let's try to figure out which it is.
Here's my Namajunas vs. Blanchfield pick and prediction.
Billy Ward's Tale of the Tape
| Namajunas | Blanchfield | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 13-6 | 12-2 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 15:07 | 12:33 |
| Height | 5'5" | 5'4" |
| Weight (pounds) | 125 lbs. | 125 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 65" | 68" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 6/29/1992 | 5/04/1999 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.70 | 5.47 |
| SS Accuracy | 42% | 45% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.38 | 4.34 |
| SS Defense | 64% | 58% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.55 | 2.05 |
| TD Acc | 53% | 33% |
| TD Def | 59% | 81% |
| Submission Avg | 0.4 | 1.0 |
This is the fourth fight at 125 lbs for Namajunas, although one (against Amanda Ribas) barely counts, as Ribas typically fights at 115 lbs. Namajunas is 1-1 in the other two, with a loss to Manon Fiorot and a win over Tracy Cortez.
Notably, those two women are the only two to ever beat Blanchfield. Fiorot picked up her win over Blanchfield earlier this year, while Cortez won a split decision in 2019.
Before we go down the "MMA Math" rabbit hole, it's worth noting that Cortez fought Namajunas on short notice at altitude in Denver, while Blanchfield was just 19 when she took on Cortez. Since both women's losses to Fiorot were in the past 14 months, that's the more relevant comparison.
Either way, it's hard to get a feel on what the move to flyweight means for Namajunas. She looks like she's put on a bit of size since her divisional debut against Fiorot, but was still noticeably smaller than Cortez. However, she dropped Cortez early, while surprisingly fading late, so perhaps the additional weight is taxing her cardio.
She also landed five takedowns in the Cortez fight. That's a new wrinkle in her game, as she has just one previous fight with more than two takedowns. That's probably not the tactic she takes against the elite grappling of Blanchfield — but I would've said the same thing heading into the Cortez fight.
Namajunas' striking is heavily dependent on long, straight shots. That includes the right hand she dropped Cortez with, which was at the outer range of Thug Rose's reach. That will be tougher to execute against Blanchfield and her three-inch reach edge.
Still, the former Roufussport product clearly has a striking edge here, it's just a matter of whether she can keep the fight there.
That's a tough task against Blanchfield. "Cold Blooded" is among the new wave of female fighters who started grappling from an early age and are now growing into their primes. The BJJ black belt has three submissions in her six UFC wins, while averaging more than two takedowns per 15 minutes.
With the extra length Blanchfield has, Namajunas will have to step into grappling range to land strikes. That should provide ample opportunities for Blanchfield to get this to the ground, as we saw Cortez do on occasion.
I suspect we would've seen more grappling from Cortez had she not taken the fight on short notice, and Blanchfield has had a full camp to build the gas tank needed to grapple 25 minutes.
Blanchfield's cardio was fine in her first 25 minute fight, with her highest significant strike totals coming in rounds 4 and 5. Considering Namajunas slowed a bit in both of her five-round fights at her new weight class, I'd give Blanchfield a slight edge there.
Namajunas vs. Blanchfield Pick
Blanchfield's first UFC loss last time is leading to a discount in her price coming into this one. However, the dynamics at play there don't really apply against Namajunas.
Fiorot was much physically stronger than Blanchfield, and had the length to keep her at range with kicks. Namajunas will have to step into punching range, which at least presents the opportunity for takedowns.
This is also a fight where Blanchfield's winning rounds will likely be fairly clear, with an early takedown and plenty of control time. On the other side, outside of kncokdowns it will be hard for Namajunas to pull away.
Because of that, I'm splitting my exposure between Blanchfield's -135 moneyline, and her -5.5 "point spread" on DraftKings. If Blanchfield gets a stoppage or is able to win at least four rounds on even one judges scorecard, she'll cover that price tag.
That gives us a bit of upside while risking just over a unit, while breaking even with any Blanchfield win.
Billy's Picks: Blanchfield -135 (.675 units to win .5) | Blanchfield -5.5 +165 (.5u)
