Check out some early UFC Edmonton picks to see which fighters are overvalued and undervalued heading into the Saturday, November 2 event.
UFC Edmonton takes place at Rogers Place in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada, and the entire event streams on ESPN+ beginning at 5 p.m. ET (2 p.m. PT).
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was to start thinking about why markets might be wrong, rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, that’s what a betting line is: a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events happening. For the most part, these markets are efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA – where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA – it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to figure out spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll be looking into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, causing the line to be inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, fights that are later overruled, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights considered, as well.
The focus will be on fights reasonably likely to see the scorecards here, or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
UFC Edmonton odds as of Monday and via DraftKings. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC Edmonton Predictions & Luck Ratings
Brandon Moreno (-155) vs. Amir Albazi (+136)
This UFC main event was originally slated for February as a potential No. 1 contender's bout after Brandon Moreno lost a split decision for the flyweight crown to reigning champ Alexandre Pantoja. A neck injury forced Amir Albazi out of that one, and Moreno lost yet another split decision to Brandon Royval, taking some of the shine out of this weekend's coming matchup.
Still, the UFC desperately needs 125-pound contenders, and a big win for Albazi puts him firmly in the mix. He's 17-1 overall and 5-0 in the UFC, and he's one of the few top fighters in the division without multiple losses to the current champ.
As much as the promotion would appreciate Albazi making himself undeniable, I'm going the other direction. His last win was a split decision that roughly 90% of fans and media had him losing. On the other side, former champ Moreno has lost two consecutive split decisions of his own. I don't personally disagree with either, but this is exactly the type of situation this Luck Ratings column is designed for.
Add to that the fact that Albazi has been out nearly 18 months with a fairly significant injury, and he has a lot working against him. The DraftKings -155 line is the best available at the moment, with two-way movement at various points. You might find a better one at some point, but I'm happy grabbing the ex-champ now.
Verdict: Brandon Moreno undervalued
Caio Machado (-155) vs. Brendson Riberio (+130)
From a resume standpoint, this fight is the equivalent of the Spiderman pointing meme. Both Brazilians earned their way into the UFC on the 2023 season of Dana White's Contender Series, but they've gone 0-2 in the UFC octagon since then.
One of those losses for Riberio was a majority decision while both of Machado's were unanimous. Furthermore, Riberio's DWCS win was over Bruno Lopes, who's since won two fights and is now getting a crack in the UFC.
Riberio is the more dangerous finisher and better athlete here. He also has a few other trends on his side: He's shorter by an inch but with a longer reach, and he's a couple of years younger with more experience.
The case for Machado is that he was previously fighting as an undersized heavyweight. However, his losses to Mick Parkin and Don'Tale Mayes were arguably worse competition than Riberio has faced.
I'm playing this one for a half unit at Caesars Sportsbook, where it's +140, and I will look to add another half on Riberio by finish or early once those lines are released.
Verdict: Brendson Ribeiro undervalued
Jamey-Lyn Horth (-205) vs. Ivana Petrovic (+170)
This isn't one I'm all that excited to write up (or watch), but it's an interesting line.
We have two flyweights with identical 1-1 records in the UFC – in a fight that will likely be heavily lined to hit the judges.
One of those women is a 2-1 favorite while the other is going off as high as +170. For what it's worth, Ivana Petrovic also has the only UFC finish of the pair. To be fair to Jamey-Lyn Horth, her loss was via split decision, but it was a pretty clear loss.
Jump on Petrovic's +170 line while it's still out there. More than 80% of Tapology predictions are on Petrovic, so odds are this line tightens throughout the week. DraftKings and Caesars have identical +170 lines at the time of writing.
Verdict: Ivana Petrovic undervalued
