Check out our UFC Edmonton predictions for the Saturday, November 2, event in Edmonton, Alberta, that starts at 5 p.m. ET (2 p.m. PT).
Our MMA experts have studied this weekend's 14-fight lineup for their UFC best bets. And we've found plenty of value on the Canada fight card.
UFC Edmonton takes place at Rogers Place in Edmonton, Alberta. The entire card streams on ESPN+, with prelims beginning at 5 p.m. ET, and the main card is on ESPN+ at 9 p.m. ET.
So where should you look to place your UFC Edmonton bets? Our crew has pinpointed three picks on the Moreno vs. Albazi fight card that present betting value.
You can find their analysis and picks on those matches plus Sean Zerillo's projections below using odds from DraftKings.
UFC Edmonton odds for matchups as of Friday. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
Moneyline Projections
Prop Projection
UFC Edmonton Predictions
Tony Sartori: Mike Malott vs. Trevin Giles
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9 p.m. ET
With the Mike Malott (-325) vs. Trevin Giles (+260) main card opener at UFC Edmonton, I am backing the home-country favorite to take care of business inside the distance. Bringing that -325 number down to -120 on the most likely outcome of this fight seems like too far of an adjustment.
A Dana White's Contender Series veteran, Malott earned a contract to the UFC after submitting Shimon Smotritsky (who was undefeated at the time) in under a minute. Malott went on to knock out Mickey Gall in the first round and followed that up with two more finishes.
I think the only reason that Malott is not a heavier favorite is that he was turned away by Neil Magny in is last fight, but I am optimistic in his ability to bounce back. He was dominating Magny before gassing out in the third, a lesson from which he surely learned.
Regardless, I don't think that will come into play against Giles. First, Giles is a big step down from Magny. Second, if Giles loses, it will probably come by stoppage. He's lost four of his past six fights, all within the first two rounds.
During that stretch, Giles also performed in a CFFC grappling event against Malott, a match in which he lost. Not only is Malott the better grappler, but he throws and lands more significant strikes per 15 minutes as well.
All 10 of Malott's wins have come inside the distance, and if you like the -325 betting favorite to win, then I think there is an abundance of value to be had on him to win by finish at -120.
The Pick: Mike Malott Inside the Distance (-120 at DraftKings)
Sean Zerillo: Derrick Lewis vs. Jhonata Diniz
Senior Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:30 p.m. ET
Editors Note: Lewis-Diniz was cancelled due to a Lewis illness
Derrick Lewis is one of the most popular fighters in the UFC, and arguably one of the most famous non-champions (the other probably being Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone) in the promotion's history.
As a result, the prediction market is typically overweight toward Lewis — especially when he's a betting underdog. Across the data samples that I include in my projections, Lewis is getting picked to win this fight 55% of the time on average, compared to consensus odds of +140 (41.7% implied) as of writing.
Jhonata Diniz is a far more technical striker than Lewis, who is a vicious power puncher with the most knockouts (15) in UFC history.
Diniz is also six years younger and a much quicker athlete — and likely more durable than late-career Lewis. He should have plenty of room to operate outside the center of the octagon, where he can kick Lewis's skinny legs from range (Diniz landed 24 of 25 leg kicks against Karl Williams) and stay out of danger.
Four of Lewis's past five wins have come in the APEX, where he can more readily close the distance against his opponents; conversely, Lewis is 1-4 in his past five fights in the full-sized octagon.
Lewis has a rare grappling advantage in this matchup. In his last fight against Rodrigo Nascimento, he landed a takedown and spent three minutes in control position. Diniz has only been grappling for a few years and looked like a fish on his back for five minutes against former NFL player Austin Lane (Diniz spent 4:29 getting controlled).
I'm more concerned about Lewis landing an early takedown and finishing this fight with ground and pound than his chances of landing a clean KO on the feet.
Still, I projected Diniz as a -203 favorite (67% implied) and would bet his pre-fight moneyline to -185 (65% implied). Additionally, I'd add more live on Diniz at a better price after Round 1 (provided he wasn't nearly knocked out and merely survived to the stool).
Lastly, I'd include Diniz by Decision (projected +647, listed +950 at BetRivers) on round-robin tickets; he might leg-kick Lewis and then run away for the duration.
The Pick: Jhonata Diniz (-157 at BetRivers)
Billy Ward: Erin Blanchfield vs. Rose Namajunas
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 11:30 p.m. ET
A thought I've had, but not acted on nearly enough, is how much easier it is for favorites to cover the -5.5 point spread in five round fights than the equivalent -3.5 line.
For those unfamiliar, MMA point spreads take the sum total of all three judges scorecards, then add or subtract the relevant figure to the fighter's total. It's fairly rare in modern MMA for anything other than 10-9 rounds to be awarded, so often it's simply the number of rounds won times three that decides the line. If a fight ends inside the distance, the winning fighter automatically covers their spread.
For a three round fight, a fighter has to be perfect. Winning "2-1" on three scorecards goes to the underdog. However, five round fights provide a bit of wiggle room. Four winning rounds gets you there, even if not every judge sees it that way.
For the UFC Edmonton co-main event, that's an important factor. Blanchfield has a clear grappling edge, while Namajunas is the better striker. However, rounds where Blanchfield gets a takedown should be pretty easy to judge, while rounds contested at range invite some judges interpretation.
Plus, Blanchfield is the likelier finisher here, especially in the later rounds where Namajunas (at flyweight) has struggled a bit. That's enough for me to lay the -5.5 points at plus money — but I'll be betting her -135 moneyline as well.
The Pick: Erin Blanchfield -5.5 Rounds +165 (DraftKings)
