From NYC to the UFC APEX, this weekend's fight card is back in Las Vegas and the headliner is a high quality battle between two top featherweights: Max Holloway vs. Yair Rodriguez. The entire card features 11 fights in total starting early at 1 p.m. ET on ESPN+ with the main card set to begin at 4 p.m. ET.
So where should you be looking to place your bets? Our crew has pinpointed two fights and picks on Saturday’s stacked card that present betting value.
You can find their analysis and picks on those matches plus Sean Zerillo's projections below.
Moneyline Projections
Prop Projections
Erich Richter: Miguel Baeza vs. Khaos Williams
Contributor at The Action Network
Baeza is a fighter I have become higher on the more I have seen him. He has a dominant win over Matt Brown to his credit as well as a submission win over Takashi Soto.
His last fight — a competitive decision loss to Santiago Ponzinibbio — isn’t anything to be ashamed of either. In a fight many say was in the fight of the year conversation it was a very reasonable loss. Baeza has been in there with legitimate contenders in this division. The same cannot be said for Khaos Williams who has not shown the same knockout power he did earlier in his career.
Williams has two impressive first minute knockout wins in his career, but didn’t show his best stuff against Michel Pereira. (I would argue that Baeza would be a slight favorite over Pereira right now.) Furthermore, Williams was nearly submitted by Pereira at the end of Round 2.
Baeza will absolutely have a grappling advantage in this fight. Whether he uses it or not is anyone's guess as he rarely shoots for takedowns. Either way, Baeza should have a volume and striking advantage, too, whereas most of Williams’ win condition is in the first round when his power is at its peak.
Baeza is a very reasonably priced -150 on the moneyline at Caesars, which I would bet up to -165. If this fight hits the mat, Baeza could look like a -300 favorite before he submitsWilliams. Baeza will surely be part of a parlay or two for me this weekend.
The Pick: Miguel Baeza ML (-150) | Baeza by submission (+600)
Billy Ward: Sean Woodson vs. Collin Anglin
Contributor at The Action Network
Anglin is looking to rebound from a poor UFC debut performance. He suffered a second round knockout loss to Melsik “the gun” Baghdasaryan in July. That loss looks better in hindsight though, with Baghdasaryan winning an impressive decision over 10-1 Bruno Silva last weekend.
Anglin’s opponent this time is Sean Woodson, a three-fight UFC veteran. Woodson has a 2-1 record with the promotion, with both wins by decision, but his loss coming by submission to Julian Erosa.
It’s the submission loss to Erosa that has me targeting Anglin here. Anglin is a lifelong wrestler, who quit wrestling at the collegiate level to pursue a professional mixed martial arts career. Erosa was able to take Woodson down three times, but has only three other takedowns in seven other UFC bouts.
After getting handled easily on the feet his last time out, the clearest path to victory for Anglin is to bring this fight to the mat. Woodson has been taken down at least once in each of his UFC contests. His build works against him in that regard, a 6-foot-2 featherweight (with a 78-inch reach,) there’s a lot of limb for grapplers to latch onto.
We don’t have enough of a sample for Anglin against top competition to be supremely confident here, but the +265 odds he’s getting on FanDuel are far too long. He has yet to record submission in his professional career, but he trains at a gym known for their unorthodox jiu-jitsu (shoutout to James Gray and the SFS crew,) and Woodson’s build makes him susceptible to being submitted.
I’d bet his moneyline down to +230, and consider sprinkling a bit on Anglin by submission (+1500.)
The Pick: Colin Anglin (+265)
