We've got one more weekend of UFC action before the Thanksgiving holiday, which means the APEX will be rocking once again this Saturday. Ketlen Vieira and Miesha Tate headline the 12-fight card, which starts at 3 p.m. ET on ESPN+ with seven prelim bouts and the main card beginning at 6 p.m. ET with five fights.
So where should you be looking to place your bets? Our crew has pinpointed two fights and picks on Saturday’s stacked card that present betting value.
You can find their analysis and picks on those matches plus Sean Zerillo's projections below.
Moneyline Projections
Prop Projections
Sean Zerillo: Pat Sabatini vs. Tucker Lutz
Betting Analyst, The Action Network
I projected Tucker Lutz as close to a 58% favorite in this Featherweight matchup. I'm happy to bet his moneyline up to -122 (55% implied) in this fight against grappling-specialist Pat Sabatini.
Lutz is the more well-rounded fighter and the far cleaner striker. He comes from a wrestling base and can mix in takedowns offensively (7:51 of control time in his second Contender Series win), but "Top Gun" prefers to counter-wrestle and outbox his opponents (96 and 99 significant strikes in his two other fights under the UFC banner). He'll be the clear minute winner if this fight stays standing.
While Sabatini is a dangerous submission threat, I'm not particularly impressed with his offensive takedown game. He was about to lose his last bout against Jamall Emmers from strikes until Emmers followed him to the ground and put himself in harm's way.
Ring IQ has been a consistent issue for Emmers, but Lutz is a far more composed fighter, and if he's able to deny takedowns from Sabatini, he's going to pull away on the scorecards or finish this fight.
Sabatini isn't particularly durable, and he showed lackluster cardio in his UFC debut against Tristan Connelly. Even if Lutz does get taken down early, he'll have a path to a second- or third-round finish if Sabatini can't end the fight first.
I have one unit on Lutz's moneyline (+105 at PointsBet), and I added a quarter-unit on his odds to win inside the distance (projected +334, listed +400 at Caesars).
The Pick: Tucker Lutz ML (+105)
Erich Richter: Ketlen Vieira vs. Miesha Tate
Contributor at The Action Network
Miesha Tate — fresh off a nearly five-year layoff — returned in July with an impressive TKO win over Marion Reneau. She gets the main-event spot against Ketlen Vieira on Saturday.
There was some concern that Tate would struggle off the layoff. However, her striking looked as clean as ever resulting in a TKO victory against a solid striker like Reneau. On the ground, Tate is never a slouch either.
Vieira is mostly a ground specialist with spotty cardio and below-average striking. Her impressive grappling abilities are the entire reason that she is the favorite this weekend. In a striking battle, Miesha Tate should have a significant advantage. Moreover, Tate will have a significant advantage in a longer fight and should win most of the striking exchanges.
I believe that Tate’s takedown defense is enough that Vieira — who already has cardio issues when she isn’t getting significant grappling resistance — will wilt as the fight goes on. My favorite way to bet this fight is to bet Tate and over 2.5 rounds +140 at DraftKings.
Tate is an excellent bet to win the last three rounds at a minimum and could be in line for a TKO late in the fight. Furthermore, Tate is a very strong live bet spot after the first and second rounds. Vieira lost her last fight because of her cardio, and this profiles as a step up in competition for her.
I would bet this prop down to +130 before I take a stab at her decision prop or moneyline at plus-money.
The Pick:Miesha Tate Over 2.5 Rounds (+140)
