Cory Sandhagen vs. Frankie Edgar Odds
| Sandhagen odds | -375 |
| Edgar odds | +300 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-225/+175) |
| Venue | UFC APEX, Las Vegas |
| Time | Approx. 10 p.m. ET |
| Channel | ESPN+ |
Ten years ago, Frankie "The Answer" Edgar was the king of the 155-pound division in the UFC. He had defeated BJ Penn to win the title and beat him a second time for his first defense.
Fast forward to a new decade — Edger is still here contending for a title, this time at the 135-pound division. All of the accolades and yet, no one believes in Frankie.
The lack of respect for Edgar from oddsmakers is rather surprising as a massive +333 underdog. While I agree that Cory Sandhagen is clearly the more creative and accomplished striker, his takedown defense is very worrisome against a veteran like Frankie Edgar.
Who has the edge, and where can you find betting value? I break down the angles of this main event below and you can find my full breakdown of Saturday's card here.
Tale of the Tape
| Sandhagen | Edgar | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 13-2 | 23-8-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 7:59 | 17:04 |
| Height | 5'11" | 5'6" |
| Weight (pounds) | 135 lbs. | 135 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 70" | 68" |
| Stance | Switch | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 4/20/92 | 10/16/81 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 6.88 | 3.70 |
| SS Accuracy | 48% | 38% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.89 | 2.70 |
| SS Defense | 59% | 66% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.07 | 2.28 |
| TD Acc | 50% | 31% |
| TD Def | 30% | 65% |
| Submission Avg | 0.5 | 0.3 |
Sandhagen is surely the superior striker and the second-biggest favorite on the card. However, the questions about his takedown defense should put some pause in his expected rolling of Edgar.
The closest fight that Sandhagen has to Edgar is Raphael Assuncao, who is the same height as Edgar, but primarily relies on his jiu-jitsu to win. He lost to Sandhagen via unanimous decision despite landing four takedowns and taking his back multiple times. Edgar will need to show much better striking than Assuncao did to come out victorious.
On the other hand, I went back to Edgar's fight with Yair Rodriguez. Both Rodriguez and Sandhagen are 5-foot-11 and are prolific strikers. Edgar was able to land takedowns and dominate him throughout the fight, a loss Rodriguez still has not recovered from. This is the road map for Edgar to be victorious on Saturday.
Sandhagen vs. Edgar Betting Pick
It is important to recognize that this Co-main event is a three-round fight instead of five rounds. Five rounds would clearly favor Edgar, who has tons of experience going five rounds whereas Sandhagen has never had a fight last that long.
Edgar is much smaller (just 5-foot-6), but he does do a solid job of closing the distance in his fights. Sandhagen's height is his biggest attribute in this fight because his kicks are absolutely lethal.
Sandhagen did land a nasty spinning wheel kick knockout against Marlon Moraes, who has a similar build as Edgar — this is where Edgar needs to avoid an altercation.
I believe that Sandhagen's best chance to win this fight is by KO +250. Sandhagen has startling striking numbers per UFC Stats. Sandhagen lands 6.88 significant strikes per minute, good for second in the bantamweight division.
It is worth mentioning that Edgar won via decision against Pedro Munhoz, who averages 5.53 significant strikes landed per minute. Munhoz is also much more adept at avoiding takedowns than Sandhagen. Munhoz defends takedowns at an 80% rate, Sandhagen at a woeful 30% rate.
Edgar will land a takedown against Sandhagen — he lands 2.28 takedowns per 15 minutes. The question is whether he will be able to dominate him like he has countless other opponents.
Going against a favorite who is up to -455 at some books is always tough, but this is a great opportunity when betting with this level of upside.
Edgar's decision prop can be found at +500 on BetMGM (16.67% implied). I have seen this as low as +400 (20% implied) on other books which is where my limit would be on betting this prop.
The Pick: Frankie Edgar by decision (+500 .5u), Frankie Edgar (+333, 1u)
