Editors Note: The Ovince Saint Preux vs. Alonzo Menifield fight has been removed from tonight's UFC card after Saint Preux tested positive for COVID-19 earlier today.
The UFC summer schedule is beginning to wind down, but there will be action in the octagon Saturday with a 10-bout Fight Night card on the slate. Prelims begin at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN with the main card, headlined by Frankie Edgar and Pedro Munhoz, kicks off at 8:30 p.m. ET.
This weekend's card saw some last-minute shake ups after Friday's weigh-in, but our UFC crew was still able to pinpoint two fights on Saturday’s card that present the awesome betting value. You can find their analysis and picks on those matches below.
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Sean Zerillo: Amanda Lemos vs. Mizuki Inoue
Betting Analyst, The Action Network
I was surprised to be able to get such a cheap price on Inoue, whose odds peaked at -185 last weekend. Inoue is unquestionably my favorite value bet on the card. One of the best ways to make money on MMA betting is to find prospects you feel are underrated, and ride with them into the UFC – and I feel that Inoue is a well-rounded martial artist.
Inoue lost a five-round split decision to Janidroba back in March 2018, and the fact that she grappled with such an incredible submission artist for 25 minutes should show you that Lemos will have a difficult time winning by submission.
Inoue is also a black belt in Karate, and the superior striker in this battle – though Lemos does bring some power and physicality to the fight.
The Brazilian is older but has much less fight experience, and she will likely gas out after the first round – leaving Inoue as the much fresher fighter when they get into deep waters.
Lemos is going to need to win the first round in order to win this fight, and she will likely need to record a stoppage – but Inoue has proven too durable against solid competition and her skillset has continued to evolve.
Now that she’s into her mid twenties, Inoue’s well-rounded skill set and fight experience can make her a very dangerous contender, and Lemos’ path to victory seems limited in this matchup.
The Pick: Mizuki Inoue (-137)
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Reed Wallach: Saint Preux vs. Menifield
Contributor at The Action Network
Saturday's co-main event features two light heavyweights coming off losses since the UFC returned to action.
Ovince Saint Preux, 37, has been around the UFC for a long time and tried moving up to heavyweight, losing a split decision to Ben Rothwell and is back down at his native light heavyweight. He’s facing knockout artist Alonzo Menifield who was humbled in his first career loss, a unanimous decision against Devin Clark.
OSP has lost four of his past six fights, while Menifield seems to be on the come up despite the setback against Clark. However, I think that stylistically this match sets up well for the vet.
OSP has shown an ability to control the grappling aspect of fights and can dominate once the fight is taken to the ground. The veteran has finished a third of his fights by submission, something Menifield has not shown.
As well, he’ll be the bigger man in this fight, presenting a 3-inch height advantage and a 4-inch reach advantage — he'll Menifield’s first UFC opponent to stand southpaw. I think the unique nature of OSP makes him live as a slight underdog in this scrap.
Menifield has knockout power, typically finishing his opponents in the first round of his fights. Seven of his nine wins have come inside the opening round. While that is a concern, OSP has held up over the years, only being knocked out twice, and not since 2016. If he can withstand early offense from Menifield, Saint Preux will settle in and begin to take control of this fight.
Lastly, Menifield is taking this fight on short notice. Saint Preux was set to fight on this card before a recent scratch and Menifield stepped up. With a full camp I think that the veteran can grab a win here.
As mentioned, his opponent may start strong, but I will be angling to potentially add on to OSP live after Round 1 if it gets there. For now, I see value in Saint Preux up to -110.
The Pick: Ovince Saint Preux +105
