Editor's Note: Both the Moises vs. Turner and Romanov vs. Rogerio de Lima fights have been canceled, so this story is not going to help you bet UFC Fight Night. Check out Sean Zerillo's projections for every (remaining) fight for more betting insights.
The world of sports is busy on this Saturday, but that's not stopping the UFC. Tonight's Fight Night card features just nine bouts with four prelim bouts starting a 6 p.m. ET and five fights on the main card, which starts at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Our UFC crew has pinpointed two fights on Saturday’s card that present the awesome betting value. You can find their analysis and picks on those matches below.
Don’t forget, you can now track your UFC bets in the Action Network App!
Editor's Note: The Thiago Moises vs. Jalin Turner has been canceled.
Sean Zerillo: Jalin Turner vs. Thiago Moises
Betting Analyst, The Action Network
Jalin Turner is my one underdog play for Saturday. If you liked my guy Neil Magny last week, you'd probably become a fan of "The Tarantula" too — a 6-foot-3 southpaw with a 77 inch reach in the 155-pound division.
Happened so fast! ⚡️ @JalinTurner's first UFC win was something special. #UFCVegas9pic.twitter.com/l6Ef3XuETI
— UFC (@ufc) September 1, 2020
Turner, who will have a 7-inch reach advantage over Thiago Moises, will need to prove the quality of his defensive wrestling skills and scrambles in order to survive the Brazilian's ground attack.
Moises was losing his last fight to Michael Johnson (out-struck 27-1 in round 1) before securing an ankle lock early in the second round.
Turner seems the one likely to win if this fight goes the distance – his volume (+2.17 significant strikes per minute) should outpace Moises, and also he has more stopping power than what Johnson offered before choking. Moises can catch Turner – and his long limbs – in something in this fight, however.
I just see more ways for the American to win the fight, and the line has moved his direction – down from +175 over the past week.
The Pick: Jalin Turner +138 (1 unit)
[Bet Turner at PointsBet and get $250 FREE.]
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Reed Wallach: Alexandr Romanov vs. Marcos Rogerio De Lima
Contributor at The Action Network
Romanov makes his UFC debut on the undercard Saturday night against unranked heavyweight fighter “Pezao,” who boasts a 17-6-1 record in his MMA career.
Romanov is 11-0, all by way of finish while De Lima is a natural light heavyweight, who made the move up after some issues with the scales. He is 2-1 since joining the division but will be going up against a true heavyweight with finishing instincts in Romanov.
Nine of those 11 finishes have come in the first round for Romanov, but he does have two third-round finishes to his name showing that he has something left in the final minutes.
However, I do not think we are going to see a third round. Both these fighters throw some serious power and I think that there is more avenues for Romanov to finish this quickly. He is a capable grappler that should not have much issue getting De Lima to the ground who has a 36% takedown defense over his career. Romanov is going to be more dangerous to finish this fight standing but also on the ground, he has more submissions (six) than KO’s (five) and De Lima won’t be able to stop “King Kong” once this gets to the floor.
I expect a quick finish in this one and seeing Romanov at -110 to win by KO or Submission at PointsBet is a play for me, but only up to that number. Books are making this -600 to finish inside the distance, which translates to over 85% implied probability, so getting the fighter I make closer to a -160 at plus-money to get the job done before the final bell is a strong bet.
I also see Romanov's moneyline as a nice parlay piece if you are trying to pair someone with a bigger favorite on the card.
The Pick: Alexandr Romanov inside the distance (-110)
[Bet Romanov at PointsBet and get $250 FREE.]
