Saturday's co-main event looks like it could be a fire fight as both men have the ability to finish opponents in style. No. 8-ranked featherweight Josh Emmet (6-2 in the UFC) won his past two fights by TKO and KO, while No. 10-ranked Shane Burgos (6-1 in the UFC) is riding a three-fight win streak with two stoppage wins over that span.
Despite his higher standing in the division, Emmett enters the bout as the underdog (+130) while Burgos is a -162 moneyline betting favorite in the matchup.
UFC MAIN EVENT PROMO! Bet Curtis "Razor" Blaydes at +100 odds (boosted from -400) on Saturday night.
Tale of the Tape
| Josh Emmett | Shane Burgos | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 15-2 | 13-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 11:13 | 12:02 |
| Height | 5'6" | 5'11" |
| Weight (pounds) | 145 lbs. | 145 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 70" | 75" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 3/4/85 | 3/19/91 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.63 | 7.09 |
| SS Accuracy | 36% | 50% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.26 | 5.34 |
| SS Defense | 67% | 62% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.50 | 0.36 |
| TD Acc | 45% | 100% |
| TD Def | 50% | 90% |
| Submission Avg | 0.2 | 0.2 |
Emmett vs. Burgos Betting Pick
The crowd projection for the co-main event (Burgos: 53%) looks to be on point, so I'll focus my attention on winning method props and the total.
The fight is -190 to finish inside the distance, with seven of their past eight combined bouts ending early.
The crowd expects Emmett to win by KO/TKO 73% of the time when he does win, making his fair odds for that prop around +194, or 34%, providing some value compared to listed odds at +225.
Burgos fights at a high, efficient, pace, averaging 7.1 strikes landed per minute, with a +1.75 differential, while Emmett patiently waits to counter with power shots. He should be able to land some big right hands on Burgos, who has been dropped in each of his past two fights — despite a 36% accuracy rate:
OH MY GOODNESS JOSH EMMETT!!@JoshEmmettUFC#UFCPhiladelphiapic.twitter.com/2Ci5TSFFni
— UFC (@ufc) March 31, 2019
Burgos is listed at the same price (+225) for KO/TKO as Emmett, but the crowd thinks that he's equally likely to win by decision, and you can get a better price on that prop, (+300) or bet the fight to go to the distance (+140) but I don't see much value there.
Emmett packs significant power for the Featherweight division, and Burgos likely needs to turn down the pressure just a bit and stay out of range a little more often than he wants to, to be wary of those knockout blows.
He can't help but stick to his pressure-filled style, however, and I expect Emmett to test his questionable chin if he hangs in the pocket too long.
Burgos seemingly needs to use his size advantage (five inches of height and reach) and land body shots at high volume to win on points while avoiding the big knockout blow.
