Chan Sung Jung vs. Dan Ige Odds
A top-five ranking spot in the UFC's Featherweight division is on the line on Saturday as No. 4 contender Chan Sung Jung, "The Korean Zombie," faces No. 8 contender Dan Ige in a Fight Night Main Event.
Ige, one of the most successful Contender Series alums in the promotion, scored a knockout win in 22 seconds over Gavin Tucker in March and will hope to secure his first-ever victory in a five-round fight.
Jung lost a unanimous decision to Brian Ortega last October, dropping his record to 4-3 in his past seven bouts — all of which were scheduled for five rounds.
Tale of the Tape
| Jung | Ige | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 16-6 | 15-3 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 11:02 | 11:35 |
| Height | 5'7" | 5'7" |
| Weight (pounds) | 145 lbs. | 145 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 72" | 71" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 5/17/87 | 8/6/91 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.15 | 3.95 |
| SS Accuracy | 41% | 46% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.01 | 3.36 |
| SS Defense | 56% | 58% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.62 | 1.68 |
| TD Acc | 41% | 27% |
| TD Def | 75% | 59% |
| Submission Avg | 0.5 | 0.5 |
On paper, Ige is both the more efficient striker (+0.59 to +0.14 strike differential; 104 to 97 combined striking accuracy and defense number) and the more aggressive wrestler.
Jung has faced superior competition, but he's only 3-2 since returning from military service in 2017, and those wins haven't aged particularly well.
Furthermore, when Jung doesn't secure an early finish, he has wilted to a degree.
Moreover, Jung's recent loss to Brian Ortega — in which he didn't win a single round as a -235 favorite — was arguably his worst performance to date. Jung lost the striking battle, 118-62, from distance, got knocked down twice, and allowed three takedowns on 10 attempts.
Jung permitted less than one minute of control time against Ortega, so I don't expect Ige to have much success if he does decide to grapple offensively. However, Jung was both extremely tentative (outpaced by 48 strike attempts) and inaccurate (39% striking accuracy) while remaining entirely hittable (41% striking defense) against Ortega, who is primarily a grappler.
Ige should find similar success against Jung on the feet. He has fast hands and is willing to sit down on his punches like few other fighters at 145. He has also appeared to be highly durable — though few can take a punch like "TKZ" — and if both men last for the duration, this could be a Fight of the Year candidate.
Given Jung's takedown defense and scrambling ability, I doubt that Ige holds much, if any, control time in this fight, and I largely expect a kickboxing match on the feet.
I would expect a lot of low kicks from Ige early in order to slow down Jung's movement since "TKZ" stands heavy on his lead leg.
Ige has the tools to pick Jung apart, but fighters who call out "TKZ" are typically looking for a performance bonus, and the Hawaiian changed his nickname to "50K" for a reason.
In other words, Ige is probably going to give Jung exactly the type of high-variance, all-out war that he wants, rather than fighting to an optimal game plan.
That said, I already give Ige the advantages in cardio, power, speed, and volume. And his constant pressure should eventually wear on Jung in the middle and late rounds of this fight.
If you give equal marks to their durability, then I don't see Jung winning this fight at a high clip.
Jung vs. Ige Pick
This matchup originally opened as a pick'em (-110 on each side) but has tilted toward Ige's side in the past few days.
I projected Ige as a 60% favorite in this fight, and I would bet his moneyline up to -135 (implied 57.5%).
I don't see any value regarding the total or the distance prop (projected -113, listed -115).
I see slight value on Ige's odds to win by decision (projected +202, listed +225), and I would consider sprinkling that prop alongside a moneyline play.
The Pick: Dan Ige (-125, 1 unit) | Dan Ige wins by Decision (+225, 0.25 units)
