Hakeem Dawodu vs. Mike Trizano Odds
| Dawodu Odds | -165 |
| Trizano Odds | +145 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-235 / +180) |
| Venue | UFC APEX |
| Time | Approx. 6:30 p.m. ET |
| Channel | ESPN+ |
| Odds as of Friday and via DraftKings. | |
UFC Fight Night this Saturday features seven prelim bouts. One of the fights I am targeting features Hakeem Dawodu and Mike Trizano at the featherweight division.
Trizano, a native of Ramsey, N.J., has closed as a betting underdog in all four of his UFC fights. His record in those fights is 3-1, so he has been a profitable bet as an underdog. Dawodu profiles as the more athletic fighter and better striker for this weekend's bout.
Will Trizano continue his profitable underdog streak? Below I preview this extremely entertaining 145-pound fight.
Tale of the Tape
| Dawodu | Trizano | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 12-2-1 | 10-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:50 | 13:07 |
| Height | 5'8" | 5'11" |
| Weight (pounds) | 145 lbs. | 145 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 73" | 71" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 7/2/1991 | 12/31/91 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.72 | 3.22 |
| SS Accuracy | 46% | 53% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.39 | 2.36 |
| SS Defense | 62% | 58% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.0 | 0.29 |
| TD Acc | 0% | 50% |
| TD Def | 67% | 71% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 0.9 |
Trizano is going to have a solid size advantage in this bout at 5-foot-11 against the 5-foot-8 Dawodu.
These two fighters take their time in the octagon. In particular, Dawodu is a slower starter in his UFC career. For instance, in his fight against Yoshinori Horie, he threw 32 first-round strikes before throwing 84 third-round strikes. There are plenty of examples of Dawodu engaging in a feeling-out process to start.
Trizano projects as the higher-volume striker, and he really focuses on body strikes, which is a good investment for later in the fight. He also has a fantastic right body kick and right high kick, which could take the air out of any fighter.
Takedowns and grappling would project to only be a factor with Trizano backing Dawodu up against the fence. Trizano's clinch work is pretty excellent, but he only has one takedown in his four fights.
However, Dawodu had no answer for Movsar Evolev's takedowns (nine). To be fair, few do as Evolev looks to be a future title contender. If there is anyone getting control time in this fight it would theoretically be Trizano who uses his size to tire Dawodu out and stop his athleticism.
Dawodu vs. Trizano Pick
Sportsbooks overwhelmingly expect this fight to end in a decision with DraftKings putting the odds at -200, the second-highest on the card, and the most of any male fights.
There is little value in this fight to go the distance, even as a parlay builder. I'd prefer to bet a moneyline here for the chance of a finish, despite extremely low finish rates for each fighter in the UFC:
- Dawodu UFC Finish Rates: 28.57% (two finishes out of seven fights, one loss by submission)
- Trizano UFC Finish Rates: 25% (one finish in four fights, one loss by submission)
These are significantly below the norm for the featherweight division. For reference, the average finish rate at the featherweight division comes in at 44.3% per FightMatrix.
Trizano nearly finished Klein with a guillotine in his last fight and could've easily TKO'd him at the beginning of the third round.
If you are looking for a longshot play, the only one I see is Trizano to win this fight by split-decision (+1200 on DraftKings). This fight could end up being a stalemate with Trizano holding Dawodu up against the cage and a stalemate while striking.
I will be backing Trizano this weekend as a +165 underdog on BetMGM. His size advantage and submission skills could be the difference on Saturday night.
The Pick: Michael Trizano ML +165 (BetMGM)
