The quality of fights on UFC cards from the past two weeks left a lot to be desired. But this weekend's card is stacked both in terms of the quality and the quantity.
Saturday's event features 14 total bouts — prelims start at 1 p.m. ET on ESPN+ and the main card begins 4 p.m. ET — with light heavyweights Paulo Costa and Marvin Vettori headlining the action in the Octagon.
So, where should you be looking to place your bets? Our crew is focusing on three fights in particular and sees a few bets with value in those matchups. You can find their analysis and picks on those confrontations below.
You can also check out the moneyline and prop projections for every fight via Sean Zerillo's betting model, which uses odds from DraftKings.
Moneyline Projections
Prop Projections
Sean Zerillo: Tabitha Ricci vs. Maria Oliveira
Betting Analyst, The Action Network
On short notice, Tabitha Ricci never had a chance in her UFC debut against Manon Fiorot — up a weight class against one of the most promising strikers in the Flyweight division. She was soundly outclassed (84-17 on significant strikes) and only landed 18% of her strike attempts.
Ricci is at a disadvantage on the feet against Oliveira, as in most of her fights. And she will concede a lot of size to her opponents, even fighting at Strawweight (four inches shorter, with an eight-inch reach discrepancy compared to Oliveira).
Still, if "Baby Shark" can get her opponents to the mat, she has massive grappling upside. One takedown is likely the end of the round, if not the fight.
Ricci is a judo and jiu-jitsu black belt, and she should dominate the grappling exchanges. "Spider-Girl" has shown poor first-level takedown defense and little desire to fight off of her back.
This is a matchup between two young prospects, and Oliveira might have improved her takedown defense, but based on what we have seen to date, Ricci's favoritism is justified.
I projected Ricci as a 74.6% favorite (-293 implied), showing actionable value on her moneyline. However, if this fight goes 15 minutes, Oliveira should have a bunch of success unless she is defending submission attempts from her back the entire time.
To justify her price tag, Ricci needs to finish this fight. I projected her odds of winning by submission at +168 and her odds of winning inside the distance at +123.
I would bet both of those props, in addition to her odds to win in Round 1 (+275). Still, the finish prop is the safest option and my largest bet of the three.
The Pick: Tabitha Ricci to win By Finish (+140 at DraftKings)
Erich Richter: Grant Dawson vs. Ricky Glenn
Contributor at The Action Network
Team Alpha Male’s Ricky Glenn will face off against the 17-1 Grant Dawson. Dawson appears to be a rising star for the UFC. He is 6-0 with three wins by submission and five inside the distance. Overall, Dawson has 11 of his 17 wins by submission in his career.
His grappling is particularly impressive with most of his submissions coming via rear-naked choke. His opponent, Ricky Glenn has only one fight since 2018. His takedown defense is a particular worry. We have not seen much of Glenn, but in 2018 he was taken down by Dennis Bermudez six times. Safe to say that if Glenn gets taken to the mat, he will be in serious danger.
Moreover, Glenn’s only loss by finish is via submission, and he has never been knocked out. Glenn will have a grappling disadvantage and has never been knocked out in his career.
Dawson’s takedown ability is particularly impressive, averaging 3.44 takedowns per 15 minutes. His ground control is impressive, and while a KO/TKO is well within the possibility, his odds should favor submission here.
His submission prop is excellent, and I would bet it down to +250. Look for Dawson to take this fight to the ground where he will land ground strikes and force his opponent to give up his back before getting submitted.
The Pick: Grant Dawson by Submission (+325 at PointsBet)
Billy Ward: Khama Worthy vs. Jai Herbert
Contributor at The Action Network
Khama Worthy and Jai Herbert are squaring off on Saturday, with both men riding two-fight losing streaks. (Also in common are awesome nicknames: “Death Star” vs. “Black Country Banger.” Incredible.)
Anyway, the loser of this one will see their UFC career in serious jeopardy. It’s never a good look to lose three in a row. Herbert has only had two UFC fights in total, both of them stoppage losses. That’s disappointing given he was 10-1 on the regional scene.
Worthy on the other hand was on the right side of stoppage victories in his first two UFC bouts, before losing back-to-back, first-round knockouts. To his credit, those bouts were against an ascending Jamie Mullarkey and undefeated Ottman Azaitar. Not a great sign none the less, but somewhat understandable.
Despite his worse record, Worthy’s overall resume is more impressive. He has three submission victories to go with his nine knockouts. Many of his losses were “good” losses too. I like betting on guys who are willing to fight anyone, and Worthy fought Paul Felder, Billy Quarantillo and Kyle Nelson on the regional scene (before any of them made it to the UFC.)
At this point, I’ll be betting against Herbert until he proves he belongs at the UFC level. A lot of fighters look great on smaller shows, but the UFC is a big step up. It appears so far that Herbert isn’t able to make that step.
We can get Worthy as high as +155 (DraftKings.) He should be the favorite in my opinion, so this is a great deal.
The Pick:Khama Worthy moneyline (+155)
