Paulo Costa vs. Marvin Vettori Odds
| Costa Odds | +155 |
| Vettori Odds | -180 |
| Over/Under | 4.5 (+120/ -150) |
| Venue | UFC APEX |
| Time | Approx. 6:30 p.m. ET |
| Channel | ESPN+ |
| Odds as of Friday and via DraftKings. | |
We have never seen a fight week like this before. The UFC Vegas 41 main event was contracted to take place at the middleweight division of 185 lbs. Paulo Costa bizarrely came out to the media on Tuesday saying he currently weighed 211 pounds and would be unable to make weight.
As of Friday, Marvin Vettori vs. Paulo Costa will go forward at light heavyweight, 20 pounds above the original contracted weight.
Marvin Vettori gets a ton of credit for taking this fight at a ridiculously higher weight limit. Paulo Costa clearly had no intention of making weight, making it an extremely important part of the fight. Vettori opened as a +130 underdog but has become the favorite around -180 with the ominous Costa weight problems.
Tale of the Tape
| Costa | Vettori | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 13-1 | 17-5-1 |
| Height | 6'1" | 6'0" |
| Weight (pounds) | 204.5 lbs. | 204 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 72" | 74" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 4/21/91 | 9/20/93 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 7.03 | 3.88 |
| SS Accuracy | 57% | 43% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 6.70 | 3.04 |
| SS Defense | 50% | 63% |
| Take Down Avg | 0 | 2.24 |
| TD Acc | 0% | 47% |
| TD Def | 80% | 78% |
| Submission Avg | 0 | 0.7 |
There is a lot to unpack here as the weight class is a massive piece of this fight. This is a very unfair situation to Marvin Vettori who was preparing to go down to 185. It does not appear that Costa intended on cutting weight at all for this fight.
When asked why Costa did not cut weight he said, "I will tell you after the fight." This would seemingly tease an injury that is obviously worrisome to Costa bettors. Furthermore, Costa would probably be best served to make this his weight division going forward.
Costa will have a more pronounced size advantage on Saturday. Vettori likely weighed under 200-pounds at the time of the weight change. Costa is the stronger fighter here, and the new weight class makes me worried about these fighters' cardio. Carrying more weight unexpectedly is a much tougher chore.
Stylistically, Marvin Vettori has more ways to win this fight. He profiles as the much better and willing grappler. Vettori also has the third-best significant strike defense in the middleweight division per UFCStats. Vettori wins most of his fights by decision but also has some submission prowess if this fight hits the mat.
Paulo will be looking to make this fight a standing brawl to land a TKO victory. This will be easier said than done as Vettori has never been knocked out or knocked down in his UFC career (11 fights).
Costa vs. Vettori Pick
This is an unfortunate situation for Vettori who should not have to deal with a 20-pound weight difference the week of the fight. Personally, I don't think Vettori should even take this fight. Weight cutting is a science, and his body could feel the effects of a sudden change in weight like this.
If Costa truly had no intention of cutting weight from the beginning, this would theoretically favor him. The shift in odds to make Vettori a larger favorite after being forced to change weight does not make much sense at all.
We have seen Costa pull out of fights in the past for a variety of reasons (Jared Cannonier and Robert Whittaker immediately come to mind). If there is an injury concern, Costa would've already pulled out of this fight.
To take a term from the WWE, Costa seems like he's embracing the heel angle. He is going to be a truly larger opponent in this fight.
Costa is +380 to win this fight in under 2.5 rounds on DraftKings. This covers most of his win condition as he is unlikely to knock out his opponent after the second round.
Vettori has many more ways to win this fight, so I would hesitate to bet heavily on his decision prop at a new weight class. The under 4.5 rounds prop is set at -150 on DraftKings which looks like a good spot as well. It would be surprising to see this light heavyweight bout go to the scorecards.
The Pick: Costa to win in under 2.5 rounds +380 | Under 4.5 Rounds -150
