UFC Fight Night Updated Betting Odds & Projections: Zerillo’s Picks for Saturday’s Undercard & Main Card Bouts

Among the three Fight Night cards that have been scheduled since the UFC returned, this Saturday's might be the most top-heavy.

Saturday’s card features 11 bouts anchored by the main event between No. 1-ranked welterweight Tyron Woodley and No. 6-ranked welterweight Gilbert Burns. Woodley hasn't been in the octagon since he lost the welterweight title to Kamaru Usman over a year ago. Burns has been on fire winning five-straight bouts and eight of his past ten dating back to 2016.

UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Burns begins at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN+ with a six-fight preliminary card. The main card will start at 9 p.m. ET on ESPN+ and features five bouts.

Check out the full betting odds, with analysis from Sean Zerillo, and picks for each fight below:

UFC Fight Night Value Bets

Preliminary Card

• Time: 6:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN+

Featherweight fight: Chris Gutierrez vs. Vince Morales

Crowdsourced Projection: Gutierrez (84%)

The three UFC cards in Jacksonville, Florida, highlighted some questionable decisions by the judges, with fighters who displayed more substantial power coming out on top in decisions against opponents with superior strike metrics.

Therefore, I'll default to the power side in any 50-50 matchups for Saturday, and the first bout of the night is a pick'em between Vince Morales, who is an active, although inaccurate striker, and Chris Gutierrez — who owns the more significant power between the two men.

Gutierrez enjoys advantages in strike differential (+1.35 to +1.09) and both strike accuracy (55% to 39%) and strike defense (64% to 56%) – and he will look to pick apart Morales from a distance with kicks and try to chop down his lead leg.

This fight is -286 (implied 74%) to go the distance, and Gutierrez by KO or decision, at boosted odds of +140 at DraftKings, seems like the right side to me.

Otherwise, play Gutierrez small on the moneyline.

Gutierez vs. Morales Bets

• Chris Gutierrez -115 (0.5 units)

[Bet now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN, and WV only.]

Bantamweight fight: Louis Smolka vs. Casey Kenney

Crowdsourced Projection: Kenney (70%)

Casey Kenney is a popular parlay piece for Saturday's card, but at his current odds, I cannot recommend including him on tickets. I don't think that his moneyline odds at -278 (implied 75%) offer any betting value.

Louis Smolka looks rejuvenated in his second UFC stint and has the edge in striking metrics, where he is also the higher-volume fighter.

His takedown defense (30%) and ground game are lacking, however, and Kenney's southpaw stance poses significant problems for the Hawaiian in the stand-up portions.

Fourteen of Smolka's 16 career wins have come inside the distance, but this fight is -240 (implied 70%) to go to the judges.

Smolka by submission (+1100) or KO/TKO (+1200) seems to be in play, while Kenney by decision (-125) is taking all of the action.

Smolka vs. Kenney Bets

• Pass

[Bet now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN, and WV only.]

Flyweight fight: Tim Elliott vs. Brandon Royval

Crowdsourced Projection: Elliott (69%)

The projection says that Elliott offers slight betting value in this fight, which is likely the fight of the night- but I'm ultimately passing on betting this one. I will use Elliott and Royval in various DFS lineups instead.

The high-octane Elliott is a fan-favorite, with his go-for-broke fighting style – but I generally don't bet on favorites coming in off of consecutive losses, and I suspect that you need to factor in his fanbase as part of that projection – so the line is likely dead on.

Royval, who is making his UFC debut, is as reckless as Elliott – and his submission odds at +350 (implied 22%) are curiously low for a fight that is -130 (implied 56.5%) to finish inside of the distance.

Elliott vs. Royval Bets

• Pass

[Bet now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN, and WV only.]

Light Heavyweight fight: Jamahal Hill vs. Klidson Abreu

Crowdsourced Projection: Hill (81%)

The undefeated Hill showed impressive striking (+5.1 differential per minute) in his UFC debut, after gaining a contract through Dana White's Contender Series. Still, he also displayed a need to continue working on his takedown defense and grappling after being taken to the mat six times, which makes a matchup with Abreu so intriguing:

Abreu has struggled to get his fights to the mat (20% takedown accuracy) in his three UFC fights, and his negative strike differential (-0.69) and accuracy number (39%) aren't promising either.

He's also the much smaller fighter, as the 6-foot-4 Hill, with his 79-inch reach and southpaw stance, has terrifying potential.

If Abreu can get inside of Hill's range and get the larger man to the ground, he could end it via submission (+325) in a fight that is +115 to finish inside of the distance, but I'll side with the crowd and bank on HIll's significant size advantage.

Hill vs. Abreu Bets

• Jamahal Hill -122 (0.5 units)

[Bet now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]

Welterweight fight: Daniel Rodriguez vs. Gabe Green

Crowdsourced Projection: Rodriguez (91%)

Green stepped in on short notice after Kevin Holland was scratched due to injury, which turned Rodriguez from one of the biggest underdogs into one of the most substantial favorites on the card.

This fight is also the most likely to finish inside of the distance, at -335 (implied 77%) with Rodriguez by TKO (-167), the betting favorite for winning method.

He has heavy hands, and Green, a natural lightweight, is stepping up in weight to get a chance in the UFC, against a massive welterweight.

I don't think that this ends well for him:

With a 90% probability of winning this fight, according to the crowd, Rodriguez is my favorite parlay piece on Saturday's card.

Rodriguez vs. Green Bets

• Use Rodriguez as a parlay piece

[Bet now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]

Women's Flyweight fight: Katlyn Chookagian vs. Antonina Shevchenko 

Crowdsourced Projection: Chookagian (53%)

For the unaware, the UFC is using a smaller, 25-foot-cage, as opposed to their standard 30-foot-cage on Saturday night — which should help to ensure more action.

That should help to liven things up in the final fight on the preliminary card, as Chookagian looks for revenge against the other Shevchenko sister; after getting knocked out by Flyweight champion Valentina in February.

Antonina is much more of a pure kickboxer than her world-class sister, and doesn't pose any threat as a wrestler, so this should be more of a pure striking matchup as Chookagian, who would have the edge on the ground, is 0-for-17 at takedown attempts in the UFC.

This is the only crowd projection that I went against for Saturday, but I do like Shevchenko to win this fight in the smaller cage.

She has displayed an excellent strike differential (+2.98) through three UFC fights, with significantly better accuracy than Chookagian (57% to 32%), who has a negative differential (-0.38) and prefers to fight from a distance.

Chookagian vs. Shevchenko Bets

• Antonina Shevchenko -130 (0.5 units)

[Bet now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]

Main Card

• Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN+

Women's Strawweight fight: Mackenzie Dern vs. Hanna Cifers

Crowdsourced Projection: Dern (90%)

Mackenzie Dern is the most significant favorite on Saturday night, and she should be able to dominate Hannah Cifer with her world-class jiu-jitsu.

The fight is +175 to go the distance, and Dern is most likely to end it via a submission (-134), or she'll merely control top position for the majority of the fight and win by decision (+300).

Cifers by knockout (+800) seems the only path to victory for the underdog, but she is the smaller fighter (5-foot-4 vs. 5-foot-1) and prefers to work from the clinch making this an excellent matchup for Dern's grappling.

Dern vs. Cifers Bets

• Use Dern as a parlay piece

[Bet now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN, and WV only.]

Lightweight fight: Roosevelt Roberts vs. Brok Weaver

Crowdsourced Projection: Roberts (81%)

Weaver proved to be an active, powerful striker in his contender series debut, but he was well on his way to a loss until winning by disqualification, with his striking defense and wrestling looking extremely vulnerable.

The 26-year-old Roberts continues to improve with each fight, and his well-rounded skillset should prove too much for Weaver — who I only see winning via KO or TKO (+1100).

Roberts, by decision (+115), is the favorite for winning, but I prefer Roberts by submission (+250) in the prop market and I think "The Predator" is an excellent parlay piece.

Notably, Weaver was also the only fighter on the card to miss weight.

Roberts vs. Weaver Bets

• Use Roberts as a parlay piece.

[Bet now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]

Catchweight fight (150): Billy Quarantillo vs. Spike Carlyle

Crowdsourced Projection: Carlyle (57%)

This 150-pound catchweight bout is the other "fight of the night" contender between a pair of exciting prospects coming off of debut wins in the UFC.

Billy Quarantillo is the larger fighter, but Spike Carlyle's puts that issue aside with his early pace and pressure — which ultimately causes him to gas out but has also led to eight of nine wins by stoppage, including five first-round victories.

If Quarantillo can survive the early onslaught, he should be able to take control in the second and third round, and ultimately win by decision (+235). Still, I find it curious that Carlyle by KO/TKO (+190) is favored, and will bet the "The Alpha Ginger" on the moneyline.

Quarantillo vs. Carlyle Bets

• Spike Carlyle +110 (0.5 units)

[Bet now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]

Heavyweight fight: Blagoy Ivanov vs. Augusto Sakai

Crowdsourced Projection: Sakai (53%)

This will likely be an ugly heavyweight fight between two extremely tough guys who haven't been stopped, but while the over typically offers value in a heavyweight fight, this total has already been juiced up to -200.

Sakai, who has a considerable height and reach advantage, initially opened as the underdog for this bout, but the match is now a pick.

And the smaller cage should help Sakai to close the distance against Ivanov and get into the clinch where he can do major damage.

But if Ivanov can get the fight to the ground, I could see him grinding out a three-round decision — which has either man listed at +210 in the winning-method market.

The initial value was on Sakai and the Over, but those prices are long gone.

Ivanov vs. Sakai Bets

• Pass

[Bet now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN, and WV only.]

Welterweight fight: Tyron Woodley vs. Gilbert Burns

Crowdsourced Projection: Woodley 67%

If you want more in-depth analysis on Saturday's main event, check out my full fight preview. 

In short, consider betting Woodley at -170 (implied 63%) or better. That bet represents a 4% edge compared to the consensus projection. Use our betting calculator to find your edge if you have different odds.

Alternatively, you can use Woodley as the key leg in a favorites parlay.

Woodley vs. Burns Bets

• Tyron Woodley -157 (1 unit)

[Bet now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]

Zerillo's UFC Fight Night Bets

• Chris Gutierrez -115 (0.5 units)
• Jamahal Hill -122 (0.5 units)
• Antonina Shevchenko -130 (0.5 units)
• Spike Carlyle +110 (0.5 units)
• Tyron Woodley -157 (1 unit)
• Parlay +111: Mackenzie Dern / Roosevelt Roberts / Daniel Rodriguez (1 unit)