Smith vs. Teixeira Pick, Prediction & Odds for UFC Fight Night 173
- Anthony Smith odds: -190
- Glover Teixeira odds: +155
- Time: Approx. 11:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena (Jacksonville, Florida)
- Channel: ESPN+ PPV
- BET NOW
Odds as of Wednesday and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.
On Saturday, we learned that UFC fights might be even more interesting in empty arenas then they are in front of packed, loud crowds.
The coaching, trash-talking, kicks, elbows, and punches could be heard and felt through every speaker system and subwoofer – and fighters later admitted that they could also understand, and adapted to, the information provided by track-side announcers.
It remains to be seen whether broadcasters Jon Anik, Daniel Cormier, and Joe Rogan will use their golf announcer voices on Wednesday to avoid potentially swinging the outcome of a fight.
What's ensured, however, is that the UFC has the global sports stage unto themselves for the second of three nights this week.
And though Wednesday's Fight Night card pales in comparison to the historic UFC 249 pay-per-view we just witnessed, there are a lot of exciting fights for bettors including the main-event – a light-heavyweight matchup between No. 4 contender Anthony "Lionheart" Smith and No. 8 Glover Teixeira.
Glover Teixeira Odds History
| Date & Opponent | Opening & Closing Odds | Results |
|---|---|---|
| 12/16/2017, Misha Cirkunov | -155, +125 | W |
| 7/22/18, Corey Anderson | -300, -175 | L |
| 1/19/19, Karl Roberson | -105, -125 | W |
| 4/27/19, Ian Cutelaba | -105, -130 | W |
| 9/14/19, Nikita Krylov | -110, -125 | W |
Teixeira has seen the line move his way before each of his past three fights.
Anthony Smith Odds History
| Date/Opponent | Opening/Closing Odds | Results |
|---|---|---|
| 6/9/18, Rashad Evans | -270, -285 | W |
| 7/22/18, Mauricio Rua | -175, -200 | W |
| 10/27/18, Volkan Oezdemir | +160, +125 | W |
| 3/22/19, Jon Jones | +350, +450 | L |
| 6/1/19, Alexander Gustafsson | 175, 210 | W |
Smith has been an underdog to more significant name competition in each of his past three fights, after defeating a pair of aging light-heavyweight legends as a substantial favorite, but he didn't show much in his title fight against Jon Jones; other than surviving for five rounds.
Tale of the Tape
| Main Event | Anthony Smith | Glover Teixeira |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 32-14-0 | 30-7-0 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 9:32 | 8:34 |
| Height | 6'4" | 6'2" |
| Weight (pounds) | 205 lbs. | 205 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 76" | 76" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | July 26, 1988 | Oct. 28, 1979 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.06 | 3.41 |
| SS Accuracy | 0.47 | 0.44 |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.28 | 3.84 |
| SS Defense | 0.44 | 0.54 |
| Take Down Avg | 0.41 | 2 |
| TD Acc | 0.26 | 0.38 |
| TD Def | 0.51 | 0.6 |
| Submission Avg | 0.8 | 1 |
Smith is the taller fighter, while Teixeira is nine years older.
Smith has significantly worse metrics in the octagon than Teixeira, with a subpar strike differential (-1.22), and a 10% deficit in strike defense.
Additionally, Smith has only defended 51% of takedown attempts, and Teixeira averages two takedowns per 15 minutes. The underdog can dictate the tempo of this bout if he can keep Smith on his back.
Anthony Smith's Path to Victory
Since stepping up to light-heavyweight, Smith is 4-1 with some finishes against prestigious UFC names – including former champions Rashad Evans, Mauricio Rua, and title challengers Alexander Gustafsson and Volkan Oezdemir.
He also lost to Jon Jones as a significant underdog in a one-sided title fight – though he did make it to the finish line against, potentially, the most talented combat sports athlete of all time.
If Smith goes the distance with Teixeira, "Lionheart" should have the advantage as the younger man.
Smith will look to use his length to land shots before slipping back out of range, but he will have to stay alert even with a lead – Teixeira is capable of finishing this fight at any point with a knockout or submission.
Smith will also need to be strong in the grappling exchanges, and find a way to get back to his feet if Teixeira takes the fight to the ground, where the Brazilian has a decided advantage.
Smith has proven to be very strong in such moments, however, and he should be a handful for anyone in the clinch. Smith also hasn't been submitted since 2015, and he has finished 88% of his wins (29 for 33), including each of his past seven.
In our MMA DFS models, Smith has the second-highest median projection (78) for Wednesday night, and the second-highest value projection (points per $1000 of salary).
He has a strong chance of either recording an early knockout or landing a high number of significant strikes over multiple rounds, before eventually winning. And the potential for the bout to go to five rounds only increases his potential DFS projection.
If Smith ends up on his back, whether or not he can stand back up will be the key to the fight.
Glover Teixeira's Path to Victory
Teixeira is a high-end black-belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, and he seems likely to test Smith's grappling skills from the outset after closing the distance with some technical boxing.
The 40-year-old's hands aren't as fast as they used to be, but his chin has held up well – withstanding some big shots in his recent wins against UFC prospects.
Glover can finish you in a variety of ways – with 25 of 30 (83%) career wins by way of knockout (17) or submission (8).
If he can out-grapple Smith and control the distance and tempo of the fight, Teixeira will eventually look for a choke, or secure mount and devastate Smith with ground and pound.
The Brazilian ranks in the middle of the pack (56.5) in our DFS projections for Wednesday, though he does move up to 5th in points per $1000 of salary.
He has the tools to beat Smith – but the former comes into this bout in the best form of his career.
Pick for Smith vs. Teixeira
After scraping data and crowdsourcing more than 2,000 predictions for this fight, the consensus opinion is that Smith wins this bout 69% of the time, implied odds of -223.
As a result, Smith is probably undervalued by roughly 3.5% at the current odds of -190 (implied 65.5%). Use our betting calculator to find your edge if you have different odds.
However, Teixeira to win by TKO (+700) or submission (+400) are both extremely appealing prop bets. He presents a compelling, versatile test for Smith to overcome, but I think that "Lionheart" proves too strong and fit for the 40-year-old.
The Pick: Anthony Smith (-190)
[In Pennsylvania? You can bet Smith at -125 odds at Parx Sportsbook]
