The UFC is back after a week off, this time traveling to France.
The main event is a contest between former interim heavyweight champion Cyril Gane and fan favorite Tai Tuivasa. Former middleweight champion Robert Whittaker is also in action, and he meets former title challenger Marvin Vettori in the co-main event.
There are 10 other fights on Saturday's card, which kicks off early at approximately noon ET (9 a.m. PT) on ESPN+.
In case you aren't in a legal betting state, one way to get some of that action down is on PrizePicks. Even if you do have legal betting, the "player prop" style format offers a unique way to attack Saturday's contests.
Below, you'll find my favorite parlay for UFC Paris, as well as some other options to add on for increased payouts.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
UFC Paris PrizePicks Parlay
Robert Whittaker – Over 60.5 Significant Strikes
"Bobby Knuckles" is taking on Marvin Vettori in the co-main event of UFC Paris. It's an interesting matchup, with both men holding a pair of losses to current middleweight champion Israel Adesanya – but dominant records in all other matchups.
Robert Whittaker lands nearly four and a half significant strikes per minute in his UFC career, with that number being dragged down by matchups with the notoriously hard-to-hit Adesanya. Whittaker has surpassed 61 significant strikes landed in five straight non-Adensaya bouts. In fact, every Whittaker fight since 2014 that has lasted at least three full rounds has seen him surpass his total for Saturday.
Vettori presents a much more hittable target, with his 3.48 strikes absorbed per minute coming in over the middleweight average. Despite this, Vettori is highly durable. He's never been finished as a pro fighter, with all four of his losses going the distance.
That durability is the key component to this one, given Whittaker's ability to rack up strikes in longer fights. My model has Whittaker projected for just over 70 significant strikes in this one, giving us some wiggle room for a late stoppage as well.
Stephanie Egger Significant Strikes – Under 30.5
The 30.5 line is an almost comically low number for a fight that isn't expected to end early. Outside of men's heavyweight fights, we rarely see numbers this low.
Despite that, the under is still the sharp side here. Egger has landed fewer than two significant strikes per minute in her UFC career while employing a grappling-heavy attack.
There's not much data on her opponent – the debuting Ailin Perez. However, Perez is 7-1, with her lone professional loss coming by way of disqualification. Just twice has she seen the judges' scorecards in her career.
With Egger's low output, she almost certainly needs a full 15 minutes to top this mark. There are a lot of ways for that to go wrong, including Perez simply being sub-UFC caliber and succumbing to Egger's grappling early.
The betting lines have also shifted heavily in Perez's favor since opening, so it's certainly possible that she puts on a solid performance against Egger, as well. Egger is also fighting on very short notice here, having lost a fight via armbar less than a month ago.
My model – assuming Perez is a dead-average UFC fighter – has Egger for just under 20 significant strikes landed here. That's probably slightly generous to Perez, but it still gives us a solid cushion. There are far more paths to the under here.
Quick Picks
- Ciryl Gane Under 1.5 Takedowns: Gane has landed just .69 takedowns per 15 minutes in his UFC career. While this bout is theoretically scheduled for 25 minutes, the under 3.5 rounds is heavily favored at -150 or so. That puts Gane on pace for well under one takedown. I also have doubts he'll even attempt one against Tuivasa. While Gane is likely the better grappler, he has an eight-inch reach advantage and will (or at least should) want to keep his distance against the powerful Tuivasa.
- William Gomi Under 11.0 Minutes: Gomi is making his UFC debut against fellow debutant Jarno Errens. Both men have fought largely lower-level competition prior to their UFC debuts, with limited tape available for either. Therefore, the range of outcomes is especially wide here. Either man could be far better or worse than the other, and lower-level fights tend to produce more finishes (just go to any local amateur show for proof on that). Additionally, a weighted average of all the betting lines gives this one a mean fight time of 9.3 minutes, though that's less sharp when comparing debuting fighters.
