UFC Fight Night Austin features 14 fights and a ton of opportunities to get in on some action. If you aren't in a legal betting state — or just prefer betting player props — PrizePicks has you covered. They allow players to bet over or under on fighter stats, in an exciting parlay format.
Below, you'll find my top two picks for this weekend's card, as well as some other options for those looking for juicier odds.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
UFC Fight Night PrizePicks Parlay
Adrian Yanez Over 63.5 Significant Strikes
Adrian Yanez vs. Tony Kelley is the featured prelim bout for UFC Fight Night Austin, and promises fireworks. Both fighters throw strikes at well above average rates, and neither man has landed a takedown in their UFC career. That's a good recipe for significant strikes, with none of that pesky wrestling getting in the way.
Yanez has landed over six strikes per minute in his four fight UFC career, with all of those bouts coming against stronger defensive fighters than Kelley. Kelley defends only 45% of his opponents strikes — absorbing 4.43 per minute — both unusually high marks.
The fact that's he's so uninterested in defense but has never been finished as a pro speaks to his durability. With Yanez as one of the card's heaviest favorites, the risk here is based more on an early Yanez knockout than him being unable to land shots.
Kelley's durability should hold up here, making the over the better choice. Yanez should get there in roughly 10 minutes at his current pace, so even a late attritional stoppage doesn't mean this goes under. If you think he puts him out early, Yanez fantasy score over 91.5 is a solid pivot, as a finish in the first two rounds basically clinches the over there.
Court McGee Under 1.5 Takedowns
Both McGee and his opponent Jeremiah Wells are known more for their grappling abilities than their striking. That creates an interesting situation for takedown props, as this one will likely hit the ground at some point — which man gets it there is the important question.
My money is on Wells scoring the bulk of the takedowns here. For one, McGee has just a 25% takedown accuracy mark in his UFC career. Wells has defended the only takedown he's faced in the UFC, but he's a very strong grappler.
It's also difficult for taller, longer fighters to take down shorter stronger ones. (Broadly speaking at least, there's certainly taller fighters who make it work). I'm also not sure McGee wants this one to hit the canvas, as he's probably the better striker here.
There's simply a lot more ways for this one to go under than over. Whether it's an inability to land takedowns, or unwillingness to look for takedowns, or Wells scoring them first. I'd much rather be on the side with multiple outs.
Quick Picks
- Albert Duraev Over 1.5 Takedowns: Unlike McGee, Duraev has plenty of motivation to force this one to the ground. He's fighting dangerous striker Joaquin Buckley, who has 10 knockouts in 14 pro wins. Buckley has a relatively poor 40% takedown defense rate in the UFC, and Duraev attempted nine takedowns in his UFC debut.
- Donald Cerrone Fight Time Under 9.5 minutes: Cerrone is fighting Joe Lauzon in the co-main event. Cerrone has been finished in the first round in three of his past five fights, with his chin seemingly long departed. Lauzon has had his last three finish in under 10 minutes as well. These two rank second (Cerrone) and sixth (Lauzon) all time in finishes in the UFC, so don't expect this one to take long.
