The UFC returns to Las Vegas for Fight Night, headlined by rising lightweight prospects Arman Tsarukyan and Mateusz Gamrot. If you'd rather bet on their — or any other fighters' — statistical performances than on who's going to win, PrizePicks has you covered.
Below, I'll reveal my favorite PrizePicks parlay of the night, as well as other options to include for longer odds.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
UFC Fight Night PrizePicks Parlay
Arman Tsarukyan Fight Time — Under 22.5
The main event bout between Tsarukyan and Gamrot has roughly a 55% chance to end inside the distance, making this a reasonable line from PrizePicks. However, I think the odds should be a lot better than that.
Both fighters lost decisions in their UFC debuts before embarking on their current win streaks. Tsarukyan's stands at five with two finishes, while Gamrot has three, all of which ended early.
Both fighters can end the fight wherever it takes place, with Gamrot probably holding the edge on the ground but Tsarukyan on the feet.
The real selling point is the five-round nature of this bout. Neither fighter has fought 25 minutes in the UFC, though Gamrot has done it a couple of times in regional fights. Regardless, there's a decent chance that one or both of them gasses out, particularly if it's a wrestle-heavy affair. These two combine for 6.65 takedown attempts per round in their UFC careers.
There's a reason high-level wrestling matches are only six total minutes, but championship boxing is up to 36 — wrestling is far more taxing. Somebody should run out of steam before the 22.5 minute mark, leading to a finish for his opponent.
Rodolfo Vieira Takedowns — Under 1.5
There are multiple factors at play in this line for Vieira.
First, his ability to land takedowns is somewhat questionable here. He's not a great wrestler, and his opponent, Chris "Action Man" Curtis, has 100% takedown defense (in a very small sample size) in the UFC.
Vieira certainly wants this one to hit the canvas, but I'm not sure it will be so easy. It also wouldn't shock me to see him pull guard, which barring incompetent official scoring, shouldn't count as a takedown.
Beyond that, I don't really see a situation in which Vieira needs more than one takedown here. He's one of the best submission grapplers in the world and will likely be able to end this one with one trip to the mat.
This one's a bit scary because sometimes fighters getting back to one foot or somewhat upright against the fence is scored as another takedown when they're returned to the mat. However, Curtis is a much smaller fighter than Vieira, so his odds of doing that are lessened in this matchup.
I'm expecting a takedown singular from Vieira here, with the fight ending shortly thereafter.
Quick Picks
- Chris Curtis Under 37.5 Significant Strikes: "Action Man" averages over seven significant strikes landed per minute in his UFC career, but that still might not be enough in this fight. It's got an over/under of 1.5 rounds, with the under heavily juiced. It's also likely that his opponent, Vieira, gets him to the ground, where Curtis also won't be landing many significant strikes. This also correlates nicely with the Vieira takedown line — a quick fight means both unders are likely.
- Alan Baudot Over 10 Minutes Fight Time: Baudot and his opponent, Josh Parisian, have six UFC fights between them, and neither has recorded a single knockdown. Neither has much submission ability either, with Parisian picking up two tap-outs in his first three pro bouts against low-level competition and none since. It's hard to see where a finish comes from here.
