UFC Vegas 39 is a lighter card than most with Phil Hawes and Deron Winn/Chris Curtis being pulled. Only four of the nine scheduled fights are projected to end inside the distance. With the majority of these fights expected to go to the scorecards, we will break down two fights that should end via knockout or submission.
Lastly, this weekend's card has plenty of massive favorites. There is likely to be an upset or two somewhere, so be careful about any heavy-favorite parlays this weekend.
Alexandr Romanov vs. Jared Vanderaa
Fight Goes the Distance Odds: Yes (+280) / No (-417)
Battle of the big boys! Alexandr Romanov was a fade candidate for me last time out against Juan Espino (still made about that decision). Romanov really pushes for first-round finishes and has little cardio. He is one of the few UFC heavyweights that is looking to submit his opponent.
Moreover, Jared Vanderaa has never defended a takedown in his UFC career. Expect this one to be over early as this appears to be a showcase fight for the Eastern European heavyweight.
Note: You could bet Romanov first-round KO +340 (22.73%) and bet Romanov first-round submission +295 (25.32%). The true value of betting these props together is +108, which is slightly more value.
Prop bet: Alexander Romanov to win in Round 1 +102 (PointsBet)
Mackenzie Dern vs. Marina Rodriguez
Fight Goes the Distance Odds: Yes (+180) / No (-250)
I wanted to bet the submission prop here for Mackenzie Dern, but at +100 there is no value there at all. Marina Rodriguez's takedown defense has clear holes in it, and she has been taken down plenty for me to make this bet. Interestingly, Mackenzie Dern was labeled by ESPN's Daniel Cormier as the fourth best submission artist of all time. High praise, to say the least. I'll take Dern here who could carve through Rodriguez like butter early.
Prop bet: Mackenzie Dern under 2.5 rounds +142 (PointsBet)
Who drafted the better team of submission artists, DC or RC? 🤔
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