UFC Vegas 41 has a much earlier start time than usual. The entire card will be on ESPN+ starting at 1 p.m. ET. With 13 fights on the docket, there will be plenty to watch. However, DraftKings has only four of the 13 fights projected to end inside the distance.
Furthermore, sportsbooks see some big favorites on this card. As of Friday afternoon, eight of the 13 fights featured the favorite listed at -180 or higher on PointsBet. In the UFC and MMA as a whole, betting on massive moneyline favorites is rarely profitable long-term.
Instead, we like to focus on prop bets to showcase value on the card instead of laying big money on chalky favorites. The two finishing prop bets for UFC Vegas 41 are big plus-money opportunities this weekend.
Joselyn Edwards vs. Jessica Rose Clark
Fight Goes the Distance Odds: Yes (-330) / No (+225)
Both of these fighters have victories over Sarah Alpar, so this fight makes sense from a matchmaking perspective. Interestingly, DraftKings has this as the most likely fight to go to a decision. At +225, you can do worse than bet on the fight not to go to decision outright and not worry about the fighter.
However, Jessica Rose Clark is +400 to win this fight inside the distance, and I think she wins this one going away. She was dominant in her last fight against Alpar, showcasing brutal knee strikes and slashing elbows. Clark got the late finish over Alpar, despite referee Chris Tognoni's horrific officiating.
Clark should have a grappling advantage over Edwards and should win this fight rather easily, but a finish is much more live than DraftKings is giving it credit for.
Clark by submission is +1100 if Edwards gets tired late in the fight and can't shrimp and bridge (jiu-jitsu terms for escape) her way to safety. This is way too wide of a margin on a finishing prop, Clark is far from a points fighter.
Prop bet: Jessica Rose Clark Inside the Distance +400 (play to +300)
Khama Worthy vs. Jai Herbert
Fight Goes the Distance Odds: Yes (+225) / No (-323)
Both fighters are coming off of two brutal losses, during which they were finished. The sportsbooks support that in their decision odds. The fight to go the distance is +225, which means this one is expected to be a short fight.
Khama Worthy once had a crazy finish over Devonte Smith as a +600 underdog. Every one of their fights has ended inside the distance in the UFC. I am expecting Worthy to have a significant power advantage this time out. Herbert leaves his chin high, and I am legitimately worried that he can't take the power that Worthy possesses.
This fight is particularly unlikely to hit the floor, as neither fighter has successfully completed a takedown. Worthy having a submission over a solid grappler in Luis Pena forces me to take inside the distance instead of KO/TKO at +300. I would bet this down to +220 for this weekend's prelim bout.
Prop bet: Khama Worthy Inside the Distance+255 (PointsBet)
