UFC Vegas 40 will be live from the UFC APEX center starting at 4:30 p.m. ET with the prelims. The main card is expected to begin around 7 p.m. ET and the entire card will air ESPN+.
In preparation for this card, I have some UFC betting props loaded up and prepared to fire this weekend.
The nine fights on the card have been mostly talked down because Aspen Ladd scarily missed weight two weeks ago and immediately jumped into the main event spot as a favorite. She made weight on Friday and looks prepared to step in against Norma Dumont on short notice.
DraftKings is currently projecting just four of 10 fights to end inside the distance this weekend. Despite the books' bearish views on finishes, I have found two value props focused on inside-the-distance victories.
Bruno Silva vs. Andrew Sanchez
Fight Goes the Distance Odds: Yes (+150) / No (-200)
After a three-year layoff, Bruno Silva impressively knocked out Wellington Thurman in his return match. Sanchez, his upcoming opponent, has not seen many decisions in his career. In fact, the two fighters own 66.6% and 88% finish rates respectively.
Sanchez fights out of Tristar MMA, so theoretically his grappling should be good. However, he hasn't landed a takedown since 2019 and has successfully landed two of his past 20 takedown attempts.
Silva has most of his losses by submission and has 17 of his 20 wins by knockout. The matchup gets particularly tough for Sanchez who lost by TKO last time out and has six losses by knockout in his career.
Silva looked plenty powerful against Thurman when he last fought. I'll back him to win this one by knockout. Interestingly, his KO/TKO prop is +136 on PointsBet. I would bet this to around +120 which is where other books have this one.
Prop bet: Bruno Silva by KO/TKO (+136)
Jim Miller vs. Erick Gonzalez
Fight Goes the Distance Odds: Yes (-125) / No (-105)
Erick Gonzalez is making his UFC debut this weekend against UFC veteran Jim Miller. We know exactly what we are getting with Miller, a very high-level black belt and submission specialist.
Gonzalez has a tough matchup this weekend and has been submitted twice in the first round of his career, which makes me lean towards Miller here who is still as dangerous as ever. Miller submitted Roosevelt Roberts in his last victory and I will be going back to the well this weekend. This is my favorite finishing prop of the weekend.
Miller has 18 of his wins by submission with 10 of those coming in the UFC, third-most all time. Miller is a -220 favorite and getting his most likely win condition at +250 on BetMGM is too great for me to overlook.
Prop bet: Jim Miller by submission +250
