Player props are one of the most popular (and profitable) ways to bet sports, and now with PrizePicks, MMA fans can get in on the action. Projecting MMA statistics is a challenge, but there are certainly edges to be found.
Below, I’ll give my two favorite selections for UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muhammad, as well as some other lines I think have edges — in case you’re looking to build parlays with longer odds.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
UFC Fight Night PrizePicks Parlay
Mayra Bueno Silva Under 73.5 Significant Strikes
Bueno Silva and opponent Yanan Wu are both better grapplers than strikers. Every win recorded by either of them inside the Octagon (including Contender Series bouts) has come via submission.
Bueno Silva also lands under four significant strikes per minute for her UFC career, so this could go under even if it isn't a grapple fest.
If — or more likely when — this fight goes to the ground, look for Silva to be more concerned with finding submissions than throwing lots of volume. Even prior to the UFC, all of her finishes have come via submission, with no wins by ground and pound.
The smaller cage at the UFC Apex should also limit total striking a bit. With no ability to dance around at range, expect to see a lot more clinch work and time spent along the fence.
Bueno Silva should get the better of those exchanges, but she'll be looking to get dominant position, not overwhelm with damage.
Miguel Baeza: Significant Strikes Over 70.5
Through five UFC fights, "Caramel Thunder" has landed a solid 4.86 significant strikes per minute. While that projects out to just over the number we're looking for, it's his opponent who stands out here.
Andre Fialho has only fought once in the UFC, but he absorbed over 100 strikes in that outing, a decision loss to Michel Pereira. Baeza is actually a slightly more active significant striker than Pereira, giving him a solid chance to challenge Pereira's mark.
Fortunately, neither man is much of a grappler. Fialho didn't attempt to take down Pereira at all. Baeza has attempted less than half a takedown per round in his career.
A Baeza takedown wouldn't necessarily hurt this one if it happens, either. With only one submission when on his record, he's likely to continue to look to land shots from the top.
Baeza's power is the biggest concern here, as putting away Fialho early would send this one under. However, if it's close to the mark we need, the finishing flurry could put it over the top.
Fialho showed great durability in his UFC debut as well, which should send this one firmly over.
Quick Hits
- Mounir Lazzez Under 2.0 Takedowns: Just like last week with Khamzat Chimaev, this is one that seems likeliest to push but with way more upside on the under. Lazzez is taking on Ange Loosa — who took the bout on only four days' notice. I don't know much about Loosa, other than that he fought less than two weeks ago and lost his Contender Series bout last year. He'd have to stretch the fight all three rounds for Lazzez to go over this prop, which doesn't seem likely.
- Jordan Leavitt Under 1.5 Takedowns: Leavitt is known for his grappling, but he's not the better wrestler in his matchup with UFC newcomer Trey Ogden. I'm expecting Leavitt to find success once it gets to the ground but mostly via submission. Most of Ogden's fights have ended that way (both for and against him) suggesting that this one stays on the ground once it gets there.
