Saturday's UFC Fight Night card is filled with fights expected to end inside the distance. The card is slated for 12 fights and oddsmakers are projecting that eight of the bouts will end inside the distance. This weekend's card is at the UFC APEX so the 30% smaller cage size will give us a small edge when betting on finishes.
Notably, the main event is not listed among my favorite bets despite having the highest likelihood to end inside the distance — -600 (85.71% implied odds) — to not go the distance. Neither fighter projects very much value as it totally depends on which version of Thiago Santos or Johnny Walker we get this weekend: they are two of the more erratic fighters at the light heavyweight division.
Below are I preview my two favorite finishing props for the card.
Jamie Mullarkey vs. Devonte Smith
Fight Goes the Distance Odds: Yes (+162) / No (-210)
Oddsmakers are not expecting this fight to make it to the cards, that much we know. What oddsmakers likely are not taking into account is Mullarkey's improvement in the striking game and takedown possibilities.
Mullarkey averages 3.90 takedowns per 15 minutes per UFC Stats. His improvement in his striking is very noteworthy too. His knockout of Khama Worthy was a thing of beauty. I would expect Mullarkey to be firmly in the "club and sub" discussion as well as the traditional TKO finish.
Smith has been knocked out in the past against Khama Worthy in 2019. While he is physically intimidating, I think a takedown and submission are on the table. He has yet to be taken down in the UFC, so his grappling abilities are mostly unknown against top opponents. I like Mullarkey's Inside the Distance prop at DraftKings at +275 odds.
Prop bet: Mullarkey ITD (+275)
Kevin Holland vs. Kyle Daukaus
Fight Goes the Distance Odds: Yes (-136) / No (+102)
The only real way that this fight goes to a decision is if Daukaus just holds Holland down on the ground for as long as he can. I am not as worried about that for Holland as I was when he faced Marvin Vettori or Derek Brunson. Daukaus is not the wrestler that either of those men have proven to be.
Interestingly, Holland has been working on his wrestling for a few weeks. I don't want to fall into the trap and say that Holland is quickly going to become a wrestling savant.
However, Daukaus' takedown stats aren't the most impressive and his striking defense is horrific (39% striking defense). Holland has impressive finishing power and hopefully improved — at least a little — in his takedown defense.
This should be the get-right matchup that Holland needs. I would bet KO/TKO down to +225 on FanDuel before I take his inside the distance odds at +185.
Prop bet: Holland by KO/TKO (+250)
