We have another exciting UFC event, with a 12-fight UFC Vegas card starting at 4:30 p.m. ET on Saturday afternoon.
Not all fights have PrizePicks selections, but there's plenty of value to be found on the card. And while parlaying props on PrizePicks isn't betting, the markets can tell us a lot about how best we should approach our options.
Let's dive into this weekend's plays.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
UFC Fight Night PrizePicks Parlay
Andre "Touchy" Fili Significant Strikes: Over 53.5
Fili is a heavy betting favorite (-260) for his expected barnburner with Brazilian Joanderson Brito. One of the problems with taking overs on heavy favorites though, is an increased risk that they end their fight early. A quick knockout or submission doesn't allow much time to rack up statistics.
Fortunately, that doesn't look to be the case for this one. This fight has +110 odds to end inside the distance, and over 2.5 rounds is between -190 and -200. That means Fili should have plenty of time to rack up strikes. Historically, he's landed just under four per minute in his UFC career. That means he'll need about 13 minutes — 2.5 rounds — to hit the over on this prop.
If anything, I'd expect his rate to go up a bit for this one. He has the length advantage over Brito, and Brito had mediocre (at best) striking defense in his UFC debut. That should add up to a better rate than normal. With betting markets telling us he has more than enough time to get there at his normal rate, the over is a solid play.
Tatsuro Tara Takedowns: Under 1.5
Tara is also a heavy favorite for his UFC debut against Carlos Candelario. Unlike Fili though, this one is being given much better stoppage odds by sportsbooks at -150.
A first round stoppage win for Tara almost certainly means a submission following a single takedown, which is one of the ways this can go under. I also like Candelario as an underdog in this fight. Tara's level of competition is much lower than Candelario. It's entirely possible that he's unable to get Candelario to the mat in the first place.
For this one to go over, it would need to thread the needle between Tara having the ability to get the fight to the ground, but not finish it once it gets there (at least the first time). That's a pretty big ask, so I'll take the under.
Quick Picks
- Gina Mazany Over 42.5 Significant Strikes The thesis here is the same as the Fili play, with a somewhat heavy favorite but long stoppage odds. Mazany doesn't have quite the activity level of Fili, but that's more than accounted for by the lower number. Her opponent (Shanna Young) has also been a punching bag, taking almost five significant strikes per minute in her UFC career.
- Gabriel Green Under 10 Minutes FightTime Green is a high-action fighter, landing over 6.5 significant strikes per minute while absorbing nearly seven. His opponent — the debuting Yohan Lainesse — throws everything with malicious intent, while carrying his hands low That's a recipe for somebody to get put away in a hurry. This one has -250 odds to end inside the distance, and it's more likely for that to happen in the first two rounds than the third.
